Dummy Grid 13.23
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K
Sam Howell
Zach Moss
Javonte Williams
Greg Dortch
Jahan Dotson
Tyreek Hill
Brevin Jordan
Elijah Moore
Buccaneers
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = 250 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 100 Edge Points
3rd Place = 75 Edge Points
4th Place = 50 Edge Points
5th Place = 25 Edge Points
*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS
<< Join Here >>
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Blue Chips
Cheetah
Tyreek Hill has been the most consistent fantasy scorer in the NFL this year, with eight of his 11 games going for 25.8 or more DraftKings points (for sake of comparison: Christian McCaffrey only has four such games). Furthermore, Hill’s “down” games have come in predictable spots: vs healthy, early-season New England; vs healthy, early-season Buffalo; and vs the stout wide receiver defense of the Chiefs. The Commanders have been the league’s most generous pass defense, with notable WR games against Washington as follows :: Marvin Mims, 2-113-1 // Stefon Diggs, 8-111-0 // A.J. Brown, 9-175-2 // D.J. Moore, 8-230-3 // Drake London, 9-125-0 // A.J. Brown, 8-130-2 // Devonta Smith, 7-99-1 // Tyler Lockett, 8-92-1 // Darius Slayton (LOL), 4-82-1 (in just over three quarters). In terms of “how Tyreek fits into my thinking on this slate from a strategy perspective,” I would encourage you to listen to the Angles Pod. In terms of “how he fits into my player pool,” he’s an absolute Blue Chip this week.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
Command Stations, 1.
Howell + Samuel + Dotson + Tyreek
Story:
“It’s a Samuel + Dotson kind of week”
Why It Works:
Samuel + Dotson = $8.7k in receiver salary. If you think of them as “an $8.7k WR,” the numbers look much better than you might expect. Across their last eight games, their ascending DK numbers have been: 2.6 // 12.8 // 14.2 // 15.8 // 24.5 // 30.9 // 32.2 // 35.0. For context, Justin Jefferson scored 28+ in 9/17 games last year (this is 3/8 for Samuel/Dotson), with four games of 2.5 to 7.8 points(!), and four games in the 10-20 range. Ja’Marr Chase played 12 games last year, and topped 30 points only four times, topping 20 points only one other time, and scoring under 15 five times. Said differently: “Samuel + Dotson” hasn’t been too far off the 2022 production expectations of Ja’Marr or Jefferson (with one of the keys being the role these two have in the red zone :: 6 targets inside the 10 for Dotson // 5 targets inside the 10 for Samuel…compared to only two for McLaurin). Throw in Howell and Tyreek, and you have a full package in place.
How It Works:
If this stack hits, you’ll be well on your way to a first-place finish, as the combinatorial ownership should be somewhat low, and the raw ceiling is high.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
Command Stations, 2.
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
Rest-Of-Season Bink Machine
Only $59!
100% Tyreek
Want to go 100% Tyreek!? (As noted in the Angles Pod: I may be doing that myself.) Here’s how you force this in the Bink Machine. “Minimum exposure: 100%!”
Howell Doubles
If I’m playing Howell, I’m playing Howell doubles. It’s tough to know who will hit if Howell hits…but we do know that, at these price tags, it will probably be two guys. This rule says, “On 100% of Howell rosters, play two pass catchers with him.”
Howell Bring-Backs
If I’m playing Howell, I’m playing bring-backs (duh!). This rule says, “On 100% of Sam Howell rosters, play one to two bring-backs.”
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Howell || Tua || Purdy || Hurts || (Possibly Russ || Stroud; I’ll have them in large-field; I may or may not have them on tighter builds)
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
