Dummy Grid 10.24

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Russell Wilson
Saquon Barkley
Najee Harris
Calvin Austin
Noah Brown
Rakim Jarrett
Hunter Henry
Jordan Addison
Bears

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points

*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

None.

But…

I recommend starting here ::

From my first DFS Interpretations writeup of the week ::

• There are weeks in DFS when it is difficult to narrow down your player pool because there is just so much to like. Last week was a good example of this, and we saw this play out in the games, as 30-point scores were being posted left and right. And then, there are weeks in DFS when it is difficult to narrow down your player pool because there really isn’t much to like. Nothing really separates from the pack, so while everything worth considering is “just sort of average,” we also know that someone will win tourneys that week; and with nothing really standing out from anything else, it can become easy to just mix-and-match everything worth any consideration. From my perspective, this week lands in that second category.
• I’ll use the Angles Podcast this week to dive a bit more deeply into “why” things are setting up this way, but the end result I’m currently reaching is that the research (i.e., my Interpretations prep and writeups) are, generally speaking, not pointing me too strongly toward any specific direction. Said differently :: not a lot is standing out to me in tourneys this week.
• With that in mind, I’m going to attack my DFS Interpretations in the same way I always do: highlighting the plays that can have a strong case made for them as “potential tourney-winners,” and mostly leaving alone fringe plays that might require something fluky or lucky happening in order to contribute to a tourney win. At the same time, I want to emphasize that this is a unique type of week, in which it’s more likely than normal that “plays that might require something fluky or lucky happening in order to contribute to a tourney win” will actually, in fact, end up contributing to tourney wins.
• While I don’t want to waste your time in DFS Interpretations highlighting every play that “could have a fluky path to providing a tourney win,” I do want to use my later-week content (Friday podcasts // Player Grid // Player Grid Update) to explore the unique bets I might be isolating myself. I’ll also note that I would expect my Player Grid Update (usually posted around 4/5 AM Eastern on Sunday mornings) to hold more weight than normal this week, as Friday night and Saturday will be days on which I’ll be playing around with the slate more creatively — asking “what if” questions.
• Summing all of this up :: the path to a first-place finish this week is likely to be less logical/predictable than normal. Our edge this week is probably not “our ability to be better than the field at predicting what will happen,” but is instead likely to lean more toward our ability to apply game theory // strategy, or to embrace uncertainty in search of ceiling. My DFS Interpretations and initial Player Grid will still lean into logic/research in the same way they always do; but I also think some level of creativity and imagination will be required to win a tourney this week, and I’ll pass along my own creative/imaginative pathways/approaches as they develop through the weekend. (And in the meantime :: I STRONGLY encourage you to use the research/logic-based content available to you to build a foundational understanding of this slate, and to use this foundation as a springboard to develop some creative/imaginative thoughts of your own.)

In summary :: my Player Grid, right now, is primarily filled up with the players who look good to me from the research/logic. If creativity leads me down some unexpected paths, I’ll let you know in my Sunday Morning Update what I’m chasing. My Sunday Morning Update is usually posted around 4/5 AM Eastern, and you can always check the OWS Content channel on Discord for updates when new content (including the Player Grid Update) is posted.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Tennessee Lite”

Russell Wilson + Najee Harris + George Pickens

Story:

“Steelers do it”

Why It Works:

Russ // Najee // Pickens is a “lite” version of the old Tannehill // King Henry // A.J. Brown setup Arthur Smith developed in Tennessee :: players with similar skill sets, but (at least in the case of Najee // Pickens) without quite the same individual ceiling. “Lite” is okay, however, when that Tennessee stack found its way to 90-100+ DK points several times in a season. This is not “the best spot” for this trio to hit; but it’s also not an awful spot for it, and I feel comfortable saying it’s relatively likely we get at least one game this year in which these three combine for 75+. If it comes this week, at no ownership, on a slate that probably won’t produce many high-end scores, it’ll be smooth sailing to a tourney win.

How It Works:

With how unique this stack will be, and with the high-end upside it has, I don’t see the need to get too terribly/intentionally different with other spots on a roster with this block. That said :: chalk is generally shaky this week, so it’s also totally fine to stay off-the-board on Tennessee Lite builds.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“67.4”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Wrapping My Head Around…

I’m still trying to wrap my head around strategies for this unique slate (or, I should say: I’m still trying to discern how I’ll go about building out the strategies I want to build out), which has me not yet exploring any unique Bink Machine rules. Rather than forcing something in here, then, I’ll skip this section this week; but as always, Bink Machine users will be able to see all my rules when I publish them around 4/5 AM Eastern on Sunday.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Brock Purdy || Russell Wilson || Josh Allen || Jalen Hurts || Baker Mayfield || Sam Darnold || Justin Herbert

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM