Last week, the players mentioned in this column had a lot of success. We named 2 of the top 5 scoring QBs, 2 of the top 5 scoring RBs, and 2 of the top 5 values at WR. And that’s just from the 7 players that we highlighted, not taking into account the Others Receiving Votes. Why was week 7 specifically a success for us? Well, maybe it’s due to the fact that we now have an actionable sample size of data to predict how teams are going to play and how individual games are going to play out. This week, we hope to keep this positive momentum going.
The Clemson offense as a whole has been on a tear, and Klubnik, as an individual, is playing the best he has ever played. Since the season-opening loss to Georgia, Klubnik is averaging 34.8 DraftKings points per game. Virginia presents a solid matchup, allowing 290 passing yards per game this season and being much more stout against the run. The game environment should be a solid one, with Clemson implied for 39.5 points in this game.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Leonard was one of our picks last week, and he scored 30.3 DraftKings points. Like Klubnik, Leonard has been on a tear since some struggles to open the season. Since Notre Dame’s week 2 loss to Northern Illinois, Leonard has averaged 32.5 DraftKings points per game. DFS Hero has Leonard rated as their #1 GPP play at the QB position, meaning that Leonard is a QB with a high ceiling and should come in lower-owned.
DFS Hero’s #1 value play: Noah Fifita, Arizona, $6800
Others receiving votes: Miller Moss, USC, $7200, Sawyer Robertson, Baylor, $6800
All signs point to Brooks being the top-scoring RB on the slate, and DFS Hero has him projected as such. Baylor allows an average of 174 rushing yards per game, Brooks is averaging almost 28 touches per game in his last 3 starts, and Baylor is implied to score 32.5 points by the Vegas total. So, we have a positive matchup, a guaranteed workload, and a great game environment. That’s the holy trinity for playing a running back in DFS.
Mullings was the victim of a negative game script last time out against Washington, as Michigan went down 14 early and was forced to try to pass to keep up. Passing the ball is something that Michigan would prefer not to do, as they run the football at the 16th-highest rate in the country. And I expect them to do just that against an Illinois team that just surrendered 239 rushing yards at a clip of 7.9 yards per carry to Purdue. I additionally like Mullings’ backfield-mate Donovan Edwards as a GPP play at a lower salary due to his ability to randomly break off big plays.
DFS Hero #1 value play: Josh McCray, Illinois, $3800
Others receiving votes: Woody Marks, USC, $7400, Quali Conley, Arizona, $6700
The way that you beat this Tennessee defense is by air and not by ground, and I expect Alabama to come in with that knowledge and throw the ball early and often against them. That should mean good news to Germie Bernard, who was Alabama’s projected WR1 coming into the season before freshman phenom Ryan Williams started turning heads. Bernard’s usage has been steady, though, scoring double-digit DraftKings points in 5 straight games. He is also coming into this game off of his 2 highest receiving yard games of the season (89 and 70).
I would normally reserve someone of Presley’s DraftKings salary for the “Hail Mary” section, but there’s another guy who actually is cheaper that beats him out! Anyway, Presley has shown a level of chemistry with Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson that is unmatched by the rest of the WR room. Presley has been targeted 25 times in the last two games, first on the team by a wide margin. Those turned into 16.2 and 10.7 DraftKings points in those two games, but he did not score a TD in either game, and both games could be considered great value based on his salary! DFS Hero has Presley rated as the #1 value play at the WR position.
Others receiving votes: Antonio Williams, Clemson, $6000, Kaden Prather, Maryland, $5000
We have been waiting for 2 years for someone to break out as the WR1 for USC, and it might finally be Makai Lemon. The Trojans do rotate their WRs quite a bit, so Lemon is not a full-time player, but when he’s on the field, there is a concerted effort to get him the football. In a must-win game against Penn State, Lemon was targeted 9 times and turned it into 13.1 DraftKings points without a TD. I am willing to roll the dice on a potential breakout WR on the team with the 10th-highest passing rate in the nation.
Xavier Restrepo HIGHER 5.5 Receptions
Roman Hemby HIGHER 52.5 Rushing Yards
KeAndre Lambert-Smith HIGHER 23.5 Longest Reception
