Thursday, Nov 13th
Bye Week:
Colts
Saints

Betting “Dangerously” For NFL Week 7

Betting based on advanced Simulation Models.

Thanks for following along with the simulator experiment, where I take bets on any game that is more than 3.5 points off from Vegas odds, compared to what the model says the lines should be.

Source of my betting simulations -> https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

YTD vs Spread 11-11-0 $200 starting budget

Current bankroll $205.76

Week 7 Bets (as of 8:30 pm 10/15 on DK)

GB -6.5 @ -115 $20 

CHI -4.5 @ -115 $20

ATL +2.5 @ -110 $20 

MIA +2.5 @ -110 $20 

IND ml @ +110 $20 

NE -6.5 @ -112 $20

parlay ^ @ +4963 $3 

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Week 6 Bets

NE -3.5 @ -105 $20 win + $19.05

LV – 4.5 @ -108 $20 win + $18.52

NYJ +7.5 @ -115 $20 win + $17.39

DET +2.5 @ -110 $20 loss

PHI -7 @ -120 $20 loss

parlay ^ @ +2360 $4 loss

Week 5 Bets

MIA ML @ -120 $20 loss

MIN -4.5 @ -105 $20 loss

NYJ +2.5 @ -108 $20 loss

NYG +2.5 @ -118 $20 loss

parlay ^ @ +1173 $6 loss

Week 4 Bets

NO +15.5 @ -108 $20 win +$18.51

IND +3.5 @ -105 $20 loss

NYJ +2.5 @ -102 $20 loss

GB -7 @ -105 $20 loss

parlay ^ @ +1353 $6 loss

Week 3 Bets

MIA +12.5 @ -108 $20 win +$18.51

NYJ +7 @ -105 $20 win +$19.04

NE +1.5 @ -105 $20 loss

CHI +1.5 @ -118 $20 win +$16.94

parlay ^ @ +1256 $6 loss

Week 2 Bets

IND +1.5 @ -105 $20 win +$19.05

NE +2 @ -120 $20 win +$16.67

CAR +6.5 @ -108 $20 win +$18.52

parlay ^ @ +589 $9 win +$53.04

Week 1 Bets

WSH -6 @ -108 $20 win +$18.52

NO +6.5 @ -110 $20 loss

parlay ^ @ +267 $6 loss