Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
How is it only Week 3?!
I love the NFL. You love the NFL. But if you are tapped in day in and day out, it feels like we’re at least six weeks in.
Think about some of the notable storylines and news cycles that have transpired in just two weeks (not even counting Best Ball szn):
As action-packed as these 14 days have been since opening kickoff, the NFL is really just at it again. It’s a long season. But every week has its own presentation. It’s one giant puzzle that comes together for some outcomes that make sense and some outcomes that don’t.
Any time I feel myself riding the waves of a given week (in reality it’s all via whatever my X algorithm tees up and/or reading the OWS Discord), I remind myself that this is just another NFL season and it’s important to always take time to “zoom out”.
We talk all the time about how random short-term events are. One-game samples can vary incredibly and one of our advantages at OWS is being able to see the bigger picture for what it is. For nearly every high-variance one-game sample, we know there’s likely the opposite outcome waiting for us on the other side. By zooming out, you can see the longer curve we’re on and recognize the normal distribution, as well as the outliers as they happen.
Said in other, more applicable ways :: it’s a little less about if you think the Giants and Cowboys will play another shootout-style game later this year, and a little more about how and why that particular game went wild last Sunday.
It’s a little less about if you think Jordan Love can win MVP, and a little more about what would happen during the season for it not to go to Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson.
And it’s a little less about if Brian Thomas Jr. will bounce back to his late-rookie-season form, and a little more about in which game.
Looking ahead to this Sunday, taking those tenets in analyzing the slate in front of us – with a longer-term mindset aware of short-term results – will be what sets your lineups apart from the field.
For real. OWS Fam has been off to a great start so far in two weeks, and the Bink Machine is fundamental to what many of us do!
For this week only, you can get Bink Machine access for just $1! (normally $19 for a week of access) with code: Bink1. Do that now, thank us in Discord or on X later.
What a slate we have, what a slate we have. 13 games total as we’re in the pre-Europe, pre-bye week kickoff season for another week+ and we’re back to our standard TNF, SNF, MNF schedule from here on out.
A 13-game slate brings a few more variables to the table – which we’ll get to in a second – but look at the island games this week, and you’ll have to get your Bills (31-point implied total!), Ravens (28.5), Chiefs (25.5), and Lions (24.5) wins this week in Showdowns, season-long, and Best Ball, as they are off the main slate. The Monday night matchup, in particular, should be plenty of fun.
On the Sunday main slate, the short here is we have nearly every other team playing. When 13 games are on tap, it’s a necessity to draw some lines in the sand. To cross off games or teams, to reduce player pools, and try to identify your path and focus on the rosters you are playing instead of those you are not.
We always stress the importance of game environments here, and we saw last week how one game environment can really carry the mail (side note: an NFL game has roughly between a 5-6% chance of being decided in overtime, which sounds low but that translates to one out of every 17 to 20 games. With 13 games on one slate, these odds increase, and so far in 2025, we’ve only had one game go to overtime of 32 total.) Which game environments could pop this week and become part of the statistic? (Hitting the over and/or reaching overtime?) In my opinion, there is a top five:
Cowboys (25.75) // Bears (24.75): The clear game of the week from an offensive firepower perspective, though the Bears have not shown much other than a Rome Odunze breakout thus far. Ben Johnson orchestrated a 47-point drubbing in Dallas last October for what that’s worth, but more importantly, he now has something to prove in his second home game in Chicago. If there’s a game for Caleb to win the fans back, it’s this one. Dallas, of course, much prefers to play the way they did on offense at home against the Giants in Week 2, not how they looked on the road in Philadelphia in the opening week. Passes should be plentiful, with both defenses still looking for answers.
Rams (20.5) // Eagles (24): The talent on the field may outweigh the real-life expectations here as the Rams have a low implied total on the road, and the Eagles haven’t shown much interest in being aggressive on offense in two weeks this season. That said, when you bring together guys like Stafford, Puka, Davante, Kyren, Hurts, Saquon, AJB, and DeVonta, there surely can be points scored.
Raiders (20.5) // Commanders (23.5): Contingent on the health of Jayden Daniels and Brock Bowers, but should they suit up, this game could go underowned relative to outcomes. The Commanders defense is not the Chargers defense for one, and they still can’t block so well up front, so the signs point to the Raiders passing game looking much better this week. If Daniels plays, despite limited mobility, we should still have a chess match between former coach (Pete Carroll) and understudy (Dan Quinn).
Broncos (21.5) // Chargers (24.5): Really any game involving the Chargers right now needs to be considered, as they’re the clear league leader in pass rate over expectation (PROE) with Herbert throwing five touchdowns in two games. Sean Payton and Bo Nix have shown the ability to match that attitude depending on the games, and the last matchup with these two produced 61 points total (34-27 LAC win). Despite the strong defenses, with low impact rushing attacks on both sides (sorry J.K. Dobbins), a higher combined passing volume can lead to fantasy success.
Saints (17) // Seahawks (24.5): The Saints lead the NFL in neutral pace and rank third in PROE, so despite the 17-point total, it’s safe to say they’ll be chucking it. Seattle wants to run and play defense to win, but a healthy total and at home we could see a Sam Darnold ceiling game ala the few he had last season in Minnesota.
You’re wondering about the other eight games on the slate now, right? Me too. Well, there’s always a case to be made in any game (don’t let me tell you right or wrong), but if we play this slate a hundred times, ask yourself about the next few games here as to when they would be the one you had to have…Texans (21.5) // Jaguars (23.5) with a struggling Texans offense on one side, and a struggling Trevor Lawrence against a fierce Texans defense on the other…Steelers (23) // Patriots (21.5) feels like the matchup that both of these offenses has already enjoyed one of their few 30+ point games this season…Cardinals (21.25) // 49ers (23.75) could be in the mix with both of these teams sitting at 2-0, but with Fred Warner on Trey McBride and Mac Jones on the other side, it could be thinner…Packers (24.5) // Browns (17) could be on the list as well, but uninspiring is one of many synonyms for how the Browns offense looks this season, and it’s not likely to get better against Green Bay.
The Bucs, Falcons, and Colts also all sport high totals , and we’ll get some backup quarterback matchups that we know and love this week. Can Jake Browning take the Bengals to 35 points? Sure. Can he do it consistently? Probably not. So here’s what I will leave you with: don’t forget to zoom out this week.
Build differently and in your own unique way. We’ve seen some things through two weeks. We’re going to see some more this week. What’s going to jump off the screen on Sunday’s slate? I can’t wait to find out.
See you in the Bink Machine (Bink1 for just $1!), on the site, in Discord, and at the top of the leaderboards this week!
~Larejo
