Afternoon-only 9.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 9 Overview

We once again have a three game slate this week, with three very clear and different dynamics. KC/BUF is a high profile game environment that is poised for fireworks with two of the top quarterbacks in the league, one of whom has an elite cast of weapons and is playing lights out against a depleted defense. It seems very clear that the Chiefs should score points here, and Buffalo is likely to follow suit. Then we have the Rams as massive favorites against the Saints. They should have their way with New Orleans early in the game, and their player usage is pretty condensed among Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and Davante Adams to start games, with a high likelihood of at least two of them having very strong games going into halftime. However, the Rams will likely preserve their studs and start spreading things around if the score is in hand. So there are dynamics at play there. The Saints are an interesting team this week, traveling cross-country for a very tough game with a shaky rookie QB. They have some players who could get there on sheer volume. Then we have the JAX/LV game with two inconsistent quarterbacks with decent, but not elite, supporting casts facing two pretty good defenses. This leaves a large range of outcomes in a spot where we also have some value opening up and questions around the receiving options.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section: