Afternoon-only 5.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 5 Overview

Once again, we have a four game slate that features some of the more appealing spots from the main slate. This week’s main slate is also smaller at only ten games, which means that the “Afternoon Only” slate accounts for 40% of the main slate. This is relevant mainly in terms of how the spots will be perceived by those firing entries into the afternoon slate on a whim later.

There are three key aspects going on with this slate:

1. The Lions and Cardinals are in spots that are terrific on the surface.
2. The way things are set up, we could see the two other games (TB/SEA and WAS/LAC) ending up with high play volume that makes a huge difference on a smaller slate like this. The reason for that is the likelihood of both offenses struggling to run the ball in TB/SEA and the potential for high passing volume and tempo based on the structure of the WAS/LAC offenses.
3. The backfields in Arizona and Tampa Bay have injuries that opened up a ton of value and salary relief.

All of these factors matter for the slate, and there isn’t a direct and actionable step to take from this, but all of the factors must be considered as we are building rosters.

My general thought process is that most rosters will try to hit on all the spots, so if we can ignore at least one of them, that creates a somewhat unique build. Also, the value available at RB will be simply too good for most people to pass up on and open up the roster. If we build lineups without any RBs from TB or ARI, that will instantly become a somewhat unique construction, and the same can be said for building a roster with an RB from BOTH of those teams (probably 70-80% of the field will build a roster using one of them). Finally, there are only three reasonably comfortable tight end options on this week’s slate, and two tight end builds will barely be used. I think using Trey McBride in the flex on Jared Goff rosters with Sam LaPorta or using McBride in the flex on Jayden Daniels rosters with Zach Ertz is an approach that makes a lot of sense and, once again, gives us a very unique construction.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section: