Afternoon-Only 1.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 1 Overview

The NFL season is upon us, and the afternoon slate has four games on the docket. Most people will focus only on the Main Slate, only turning their attention to the afternoon games once their main slate lineups are dust or just from boredom/excitement once the games get going. We can put ourselves in advantageous positions if we plan ahead for these smaller slates, an edge that can play out significantly over time.

This week, I want to point out that with the excitement of Week 1 and the overall extremely loose pricing, narrowing a player pool for the Main Slate is something that most people are likely to struggle with. The Afternoon Only and Early Only slates are a great way to help with this, as there are still plenty of tournaments with great structures, and it naturally narrows your focus on a few games. Taking that a step further, throwing a lineup from one of those smaller slates into the main slate can sometimes be a profitable approach as well.

As for this Week 1 Afternoon Only slate, there are two games featuring matchups between 2024 playoff teams, a divisional rivalry game, and a matchup of the number one overall pick from the NFL Draft (Cam Ward) and arguably the best defense in the NFL. It should be highly entertaining. The elephant in the room is the status of Christian McCaffrey, who popped up on the injury report on Thursday and missed practice on Friday. His status will unquestionably alter the state of every slate he is on.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position, and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section: