Published Sep 25, 2026 · 12:47 PM ET
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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::
GAME SETUP ::
- Vikings are 2-0 in the NFC North with Kyler Murray returning from concussion.
- Both defenses lead the league in blitz rate against inconsistent quarterbacks.
MINNESOTA PATH ::
- Aaron Jones has a knee injury and backfield depth is thin after Mason’s IR stint.
- Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are busy targets against Tampa’s leaky pass-funnel secondary.
TAMPA BAY PATH ::
- Bucky Irving has emerged as the clear feature back over Kenneth Gainwell.
- Vita Vea anchors a strong front seven that profiles as a run-stopping, pass-funnel defense.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
- Vikings pass rate likely rises with Murray’s mobility offsetting backfield depth concerns.
- Bucs blitz pressure versus Murray’s tendency to hold the ball creates turnover risk.
DFS+ ANGLE ::
- Jefferson and Addison are primary beneficiaries of Tampa’s secondary weakness and Minnesota’s shifting pass lean.
- Murray rushing upside adds a floor layer if interior pressure forces him off his spot.
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GAME OVERVIEW ::
- The Vikings lead the NFC North through two weeks with a 2-0 record and both of their wins have come against divisional opponents.
- Minnesota welcomes back quarterback Kyler Murray as their starter, after he missed the last two games with a concussion.
- The Vikings backfield is quickly running low on depth after losing Jordan Mason to IR and now having veteran Aaron Jones Sr. dealing with a knee injury.
- This game features the two highest blitz rate defenses in the league that are facing a couple of inconsistent quarterbacks.
- Bucky Irving has emerged as the feature back for the Bucs and seems to have clearly distanced himself from offseason acquisition Kenneth Gainwell.
HOW MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Vikings lead the NFC North after wins over the Packers and Bears thanks to their once again dominant and opportunistic defense along with an offense that has turned the ball over once thus far. Minnesota’s offense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play despite facing relatively poor defenses in Green Bay and Chicago. Week 1 featured a first quarter quarterback change due to Kyler Murray’s concussion and Week 2 was marred by rainy weather and a sloppy field in Chicago, so the potential is there for Minnesota to look better this week with Murray returning and no precipitation currently in the forecast.
The Vikings rode their defense forcing turnovers and some big plays from Justin Jefferson en route to a comeback win over the Packers. Then, in Week 2, they rode their running game with Aaron Jones handling the rock 23 times and neither team scoring a touchdown. Minnesota converted only three of 13 third downs, but did not turn the ball over in that game. The Vikings will be without Jordan Mason for a few weeks and the 31-year old Jones is now battling a knee injury. They don’t have much depth behind Jones in the backfield, so expect a slightly higher pass rate this week and the team to utilize Murray’s legs more often than they did with Wentz. The Bucs rank second in the NFL in blitz rate and are once again one of the stronger run defenses in the league behind their strong front seven that is anchored by all pro defensive tackle Vita Vea.
When the Vikings take to the air, expect Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to be busy. The Bucs are again profiling as a pass funnel defense thanks to their strong defensive front and leaky secondary. They made Deshaun Watson look good in Week 2 and Kyler Murray seems like a decent comp to Watson, but with better receivers. Murray can run, and he will likely need to in order to extend some plays and deal with the Bucs pass rush. The interior pressure has always been a problem for the shorter Murray and he tends to hold the ball for a long time, which could also pose a problem with this aggressive Bucs team. Ultimately, however, the aggression we see from the Vikings passing game will likely depend on how well the Bucs offense is able to move the ball.
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DFS+ Interpretations::
Added Sep 25, 2026 · 12:47 PM ET
Murray Stack Or Fade
Kyler Murray and Jordan Addison form a contrarian large-field stack at combined salary that unlocks roster flexibility. The full rationale changes your build.
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