Published Sep 25, 2026 · 7:41 AM ET
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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::
GAME SETUP ::
- Jayden Daniels sidelined; Marcus Mariota starts for Washington’s home opener.
- Seahawks QB unclear between returning Sam Darnold and hot-handed Drew Lock.
SEATTLE PATH ::
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba holds a massive 44% target share and leads the NFL in yards and touchdowns.
- Washington secondary is a pass funnel; Commanders likely missing Nick Cross and Frankie Luvu.
WASHINGTON PATH ::
- Commanders run defense is solid, likely pushing Seattle toward a higher pass rate.
- Washington’s secondary has been torched through two weeks with potentially unfixable issues.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
- Seattle passing game should thrive against a vulnerable Washington secondary regardless of QB.
- Run-heavy Seahawks may be forced into more passing by the Commanders’ defensive profile.
DFS+ ANGLE ::
- JSN is an elite leverage piece with a 44% share against a pass-funnel defense.
- Seattle passing stack is a strong build direction given Washington’s secondary weaknesses and blitz tendencies.
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GAME OVERVIEW ::
- With Commanders rookie star Jayden Daniels sidelined by a dislocated left elbow, veteran backup Marcus Mariota takes over as the starting quarterback for Washington’s home opener.
- The Seahawks have their own quarterback situation brewing, as they decide whether to start Sam Darnold, who returned to practice and is trying to return from a glute injury, or stick with backup Drew Lock, who threw for three touchdowns last week.
- Washington has four other starters who also missed the first two days of pra
- Seattle wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is dominating the league through two weeks, leading the NFL in receiving yards and touchdowns.
- The Washington secondary has been torched through two weeks and is dealing with significant issues that may not be fixable against strong passing games.
HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN::
Seattle’s offensive approach has not changed much this season, despite their change in offensive coordinator. As they returned most everyone on that side of the ball, the biggest worry entering the season was losing offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to the Raiders and whether that would cause issues for them. Once the season began, they lost quarterback Sam Darnold on their first drive to a hip/glute injury that looked serious and that became their newest concern. However, both of those concerns seem to be muted at this point after Drew Lock filled in admirably for the last two games and Darnold returned to a limited practice on Wednesday and then a full practice on Thursday while the offense operated at a high level in the second half of Week 1 and then continued that in the second half of Week 2.
The play calling has been eerily similar to 2025, with Seattle ranking dead last in overall pass rate and 28th in pass rate over expectation. This is once again a run-heavy offensive approach that relies on explosive and efficient passing when it does throw the ball. The running game has not provided much in terms of yardage or explosive plays, while ranking in the bottom-10 in most efficiency metrics. They have been splitting up their backfield usage between rookie Jadarian Price, George Holani, and Emanuel Wilson. Price left last week with a chest contusion during the blowout, but has been practicing to start the week. This split seems likely to continue in Week 3 with Price and Holani splitting most of the work, while Holani plays in clear passing situations, and Wilson operating as the primary short yardage back.
This week the matchup with Washington may force Seattle’s hand into a higher pass rate than they would prefer as the Commanders are solid against the run but have been torn up through the air. The Commanders are looking like they could end up as one of the league’s bigger “pass funnel” defenses. Washington is likely to be without safety Nick Cross and linebacker Frankie Luvu in this matchup as well. When Seattle throws the ball, everything starts and ends with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Both quarterbacks understand their assignment – get JSN the ball. After leading the league with a 34% target share in 2025, JSN has had a massive 44% share through two weeks. Operating as a movable chess piece who motions often and runs routes from all over the field, the Seahawks simply always find a way to get him the ball. Washington is 5th in the NFL in blitz rate and 28th in man coverage rate. Even if Washington tries to key on JSN or take him away, they aren’t really capable of it. The Seahawks will play how they always do relying their defense and JSN to carry them, while having a broad workload distribution among their backfield as well as the remainder of their receiving corps.
How Seattle Wins This
Mariota’s limitations, Seattle’s passing aggression, and what JSN and Rashid Shaheed could mean for game flow. Sign up free to see the full breakdown.
DFS+ Interpretations::
Added Sep 25, 2026 · 7:41 AM ET
Inside The Seattle Puzzle
JSN’s ceiling is elite again this week, but the QB situation creates a critical fork. The full breakdown reframes how to handle this backfield.
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