Mike’s Player Grid 20.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections):

Running Back

• RJ Harvey – Harvey is averaging 18.5 opportunities per game since the team’s Week 12 bye and has two weeks of rest and a great matchup against the Bills run defense.
• Kenneth Walker III // Zach Charbonnet – I slightly prefer Walker (I usually do) in a great matchup at a modest salary. The duo combined for 36, 36, and 45 DK points in their last three games of the season and are priced at $5.5k and $5.3k, respectively against a middling 49ers defense.
• Blake Corum // Kyren Williams – Similar to the KW3/Charbs duo listed above, this is a matter of split workload being trumped through volume and efficiency. I expect 30+ opportunities from these two in an elite matchup.
• Christian McCaffrey – CMC topped the slate last week as the focal point of the 49ers offense in a relatively low scoring game thanks to two touchdowns and heavy usage. This week could obviously be the same.

tight end

• Colston Loveland – An elite talent who is ascending and becoming a focal point for his team’s offense. Loveland is finally priced appropriately, but is the only tight end on the slate with a shot at dropping a 30-pointer.
• Dalton Kincaid – Kincaid is a talented receiving threat for a team who is lacking in those and lost two more receivers for the season last week. He has played in ten healthy games with “normal” playing time and had 12+ DK points in six of those games.
• Colby Parkinson – Parkinson is playing on the team with the highest implied total of the weekend, has scored double digit PPR points in seven of the last ten games (including games of 19.6 and 24.5), and is priced at only $3,700 in a great matchup – yet somehow he’s only projected for around 5% ownership? Someone please explain it to me like I’m five.

defense

• Patriots // Texans – This game feels like it has a strong chance to end up similar to last week’s Patriots game against the Chargers. I think the Patriots defense is playing at a high level and the Texans will struggle to move the ball, while Houston is obviously an elite unit facing a Patriots passing game that isn’t loaded with talent.
• Bills – Say what you want about Sean McDermott, but he is very good at scheming defense and makes things tough on opposing passing games. Meanwhile, I don’t fully trust Bo Nix in a big spot. Buffalo is a cheap defense at modest ownership.

GPP Game Stack of the week

Los Angeles Rams // Chicago Bears

This game is the most obvious one of the weekend as likely to turn into a shootout, and yet only Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Colston Loveland are projecting for over 20% ownership on a very small slate. I think there are a lot of fun ways to build around this game and the uncertainty in the Rams tight end room and among Bears receivers makes it fairly easy to find a unique way to go heavy on this potential shootout in a unique way. 

premium passing game stack

San Francisco 49ers (SEA)

The Seahawks defense is legit, so this probably feels like a stretch, and maybe it is. But the fact here is the 49ers are a well coached team with a great scheme facing Seattle for the third time and are likely to struggle running the ball. They won’t go down without a fight, and everyone besides CMC is priced under $6k, with several solid options below $4.5k. If thinking through things from the lens of “which team could be forced into a high volume of pass attempts and has the coaching/scheme to overcome a tough matchup?”, the 49ers stand out to me.