Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Bills RB Ty Johnson (ankle) did not practice on Tuesday or Wednesday after missing the team’s Wild Card win over the Jaguars. It certainly appears as if he is headed for another absence in the Divisional Round.
- WR Tyrell Shavers (knee) also did not practice through Wednesday, potentially leaving the team with only Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Brandin Cooks as healthy wide receivers on the active roster. Mecole Hardman, Stephen Gosnell, and Kristian Wilkerson are the practice squad receivers.
- The Broncos had no players listed as ‘DNP’ on either Tuesday or Wednesday, clearly benefiting from the playoff bye.
- The Bills are one of the easiest teams to formulate a game plan around in DFS. It’s “either Josh Allen or James Cook” or fade at high frequency, which is a conclusion built around how they approach games, how they introduce adjustments to that structure, and where their “oh shit” mode leads them. All of that is reverse-engineered from their shown (and proven) tendencies.
- This game carries an extremely wide range of outcomes. The Bills are well-suited defensively to slow the Broncos, while the Broncos match up well against the things the Bills want to do.
How buffalo Will Try To Win ::
The formula for the Bills has remained fairly consistent throughout the previous two-plus seasons. Their defense aims to force opponents to march the field while limiting explosives through the air, playing from nickel and dime at increased rates. Offensively, the Bills are most potent when they are able to establish consistency and explosiveness on the ground, something that makes sense when you consider how they have chosen to allocate salary in recent seasons. Which is to say, there is a reason we continue to see this team trotting out a rotation of five to six retread receivers – they don’t have the salary under the cap (or in the eyes of their owner) to bring in big-name, splashy wide receivers. They entered the 2025 regular season ranked 10th in total cap spending, something that made the allocation of assets directed toward Joshua Palmer so head-scratching to me (he currently ranks sixth on the team in total cap hit). But here we are, with the Bills in the Divisional Round for the sixth consecutive season. They also know that they have an ace in the hole with Josh Allen, capable of completely taking over a game if the game environment gets there (aka SUPER Josh). What that means to us is that the Bills really have three potential outcomes when it comes to how their side of game environments play out: (1) they are able to operate within their preferred structure, with increased emphasis on the ground game through James Cook throughout, (2) they reach their own “oh shit” mode and SUPER Josh is summoned, with the offense finding success through one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league, or (3) their offense is stymied throughout and SUPER Josh can’t get it done late. From a DFS perspective (and as we have discussed ad nauseam throughout the previous two-plus seasons), that also directs our GPP game plans surrounding this team, with much of our emphasis placed on an “either Cook or Allen” or bust stance.
Cook is a more integral part of the Buffalo offense than just about any running back is to any other team. So much of what they want to do on the offensive side of the ball revolves around Cook, their offensive line, and their ability to remain efficient on the ground. Again, that makes sense when you consider the state of this roster, in that they continue to lack a true alpha weapon through the air, effectively piecing together five to eight rotational/situational players to create something of substance. Ty Johnson remained sidelined in the team’s first two practices of their Divisional Round preparations, making it appear likely he is forced to miss his second consecutive playoff game after sustaining an ankle injury in Week 18. The Bills shifted Ray Davis into that role against the Jaguars as opposed to significantly increasing the pass game involvement of Cook, but I have to think the bulk of that allocation of snaps and opportunities was also heavily influenced by a game environment in which the Bills never truly were able to establish significant control (their Wild Card game stayed within six points in either direction throughout, with four lead changes in the fourth quarter alone). Which is to say, Cook carries paths to more involvement and a heavier workload if the Bills are able to establish control of the game environment, giving him clear paths to 25-30 opportunities if things play out just right. The pure rushing matchup is far from ideal against a Denver defense holding opposing backfields to 3.9 yards per carry (third) and the fewest fantasy points per game (17.3), effectively creating a situation like the one the team faced last week against the Jaguars (clear pass-funnel matchup against a stout run defense on the road).
The ”five to eight-man rotation at pass-catcher” could be forced into some changes this week, considering the season-ending injuries to Tyrell Shavers, Joshua Palmer, and Gabe Davis, all suffered within the previous two weeks. That leaves only Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Brandin Cooks as healthy wide receivers currently on the active roster, with Curtis Samuel a candidate to return from injured reserve this week after practicing in full on Wednesday, and Mecole Hardman a candidate to be elevated from the practice squad. That list of healthy players is an interesting discussion, as all of Shakir, Samuel, and Hardman are similar players archetypically, with only Coleman (X-type archetype) and Cooks (Z-type archetype) more suitable for the things that are asked of outside receivers in the current game. Of note here, Shakir has played more than 70% of the team’s offensive snaps in consecutive games after last doing so in Week 3, making it likely we see those tendencies hold true for another week. Furthermore, Dalton Kincaid continues to be a part of a three-headed rotation at tight end after seeing a lowly 44% snap rate in the Wild Card round. Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes round out that unit as the two players likeliest to see their snap rates jump in positive game environments. It will be interesting to see how the Broncos choose to structure their defensive game plan against this specific opponent, considering their man-heavy ways this season (fourth highest man coverage rate at 36.1%), as the Bills don’t really have a player the Broncos can just stick Pat Surtain on and build from there. That also alters the expected target rate against Riley Moss, who has been targeted at one of the highest rates in the league, if for nothing more than the fact that he plays opposite Surtain in the secondary. I would summarize this setup by simply saying, “Shakir has the clearest path to volume, and things get convoluted beyond that.”
