Kickoff Saturday, Jan 17th 2:30pm Eastern
Bills ( 22.5) at
Broncos ( 24)
Over/Under 46.5
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Bills RB Ty Johnson (ankle) did not practice on Tuesday or Wednesday after missing the team’s Wild Card win over the Jaguars. It certainly appears as if he is headed for another absence in the Divisional Round.
- WR Tyrell Shavers (knee) also did not practice through Wednesday, potentially leaving the team with only Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Brandin Cooks as healthy wide receivers on the active roster. Mecole Hardman, Stephen Gosnell, and Kristian Wilkerson are the practice squad receivers.
- The Broncos had no players listed as ‘DNP’ on either Tuesday or Wednesday, clearly benefiting from the playoff bye.
- The Bills are one of the easiest teams to formulate a game plan around in DFS. It’s “either Josh Allen or James Cook” or fade at high frequency, which is a conclusion built around how they approach games, how they introduce adjustments to that structure, and where their “oh shit” mode leads them. All of that is reverse-engineered from their shown (and proven) tendencies.
- This game carries an extremely wide range of outcomes. The Bills are well-suited defensively to slow the Broncos, while the Broncos match up well against the things the Bills want to do.
How buffalo Will Try To Win ::
The formula for the Bills has remained fairly consistent throughout the previous two-plus seasons. Their defense aims to force opponents to march the field while limiting explosives through the air, playing from nickel and dime at increased rates. Offensively, the Bills are most potent when they are able to establish consistency and explosiveness on the ground, something that makes sense when you consider how they have chosen to allocate salary in recent seasons. Which is to say, there is a reason we continue to see this team trotting out a rotation of five to six retread receivers – they don’t have the salary under the cap (or in the eyes of their owner) to bring in big-name, splashy wide receivers. They entered the 2025 regular season ranked 10th in total cap spending, something that made the allocation of assets directed toward Joshua Palmer so head-scratching to me (he currently ranks sixth on the team in total cap hit). But here we are, with the Bills in the Divisional Round for the sixth consecutive season. They also know that they have an ace in the hole with Josh Allen, capable of completely taking over a game if the game environment gets there (aka SUPER Josh). What that means to us is that the Bills really have three potential outcomes when it comes to how their side of game environments play out: (1) they are able to operate within their preferred structure, with increased emphasis on the ground game through James Cook throughout, (2) they reach their own “oh shit” mode and SUPER Josh is summoned, with the offense finding success through one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league, or (3) their offense is stymied throughout and SUPER Josh can’t get it done late. From a DFS perspective (and as we have discussed ad nauseam throughout the previous two-plus seasons), that also directs our GPP game plans surrounding this team, with much of our emphasis placed on an “either Cook or Allen” or bust stance.
Cook is a more integral part of the Buffalo offense than just about any running back is to any other team. So much of what they want to do on the offensive side of the ball revolves around Cook, their offensive line, and their ability to remain efficient on the ground. Again, that makes sense when you consider the state of this roster, in that they continue to lack a true alpha weapon through the air, effectively piecing together five to eight rotational/situational players to create something of substance. Ty Johnson remained sidelined in the team’s first two practices of their Divisional Round preparations, making it appear likely he is forced to miss his second consecutive playoff game after sustaining an ankle injury in Week 18. The Bills shifted Ray Davis into that role against the Jaguars as opposed to significantly increasing the pass game involvement of Cook, but I have to think the bulk of that allocation of snaps and opportunities was also heavily influenced by a game environment in which the Bills never truly were able to establish significant control (their Wild Card game stayed within six points in either direction throughout, with four lead changes in the fourth quarter alone). Which is to say, Cook carries paths to more involvement and a heavier workload if the Bills are able to establish control of the game environment, giving him clear paths to 25-30 opportunities if things play out just right. The pure rushing matchup is far from ideal against a Denver defense holding opposing backfields to 3.9 yards per carry (third) and the fewest fantasy points per game (17.3), effectively creating a situation like the one the team faced last week against the Jaguars (clear pass-funnel matchup against a stout run defense on the road).
The ”five to eight-man rotation at pass-catcher” could be forced into some changes this week, considering the season-ending injuries to Tyrell Shavers, Joshua Palmer, and Gabe Davis, all suffered within the previous two weeks. That leaves only Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Brandin Cooks as healthy wide receivers currently on the active roster, with Curtis Samuel a candidate to return from injured reserve this week after practicing in full on Wednesday, and Mecole Hardman a candidate to be elevated from the practice squad. That list of healthy players is an interesting discussion, as all of Shakir, Samuel, and Hardman are similar players archetypically, with only Coleman (X-type archetype) and Cooks (Z-type archetype) more suitable for the things that are asked of outside receivers in the current game. Of note here, Shakir has played more than 70% of the team’s offensive snaps in consecutive games after last doing so in Week 3, making it likely we see those tendencies hold true for another week. Furthermore, Dalton Kincaid continues to be a part of a three-headed rotation at tight end after seeing a lowly 44% snap rate in the Wild Card round. Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes round out that unit as the two players likeliest to see their snap rates jump in positive game environments. It will be interesting to see how the Broncos choose to structure their defensive game plan against this specific opponent, considering their man-heavy ways this season (fourth highest man coverage rate at 36.1%), as the Bills don’t really have a player the Broncos can just stick Pat Surtain on and build from there. That also alters the expected target rate against Riley Moss, who has been targeted at one of the highest rates in the league, if for nothing more than the fact that he plays opposite Surtain in the secondary. I would summarize this setup by simply saying, “Shakir has the clearest path to volume, and things get convoluted beyond that.”
How denver Will Try To Win ::
Kickoff Saturday, Jan 17th 6:00pm Eastern
49ers ( 19) at
Hawks ( 26.5)
Over/Under 45.5
Game Overview ::
By >> Mike johnson
- These teams have met twice already this season, once way back in Week 1 and once just a couple of weeks ago with the conference’s #1 seed on the line.
- Seattle has a massive rest advantage coming off their bye week while the 49ers played just six days ago.
- The 49ers have overcome massive injuries all season but will face their toughest test yet following the loss of all pro tight end George Kittle to a devastating achilles injury.
- San Francisco is the league’s second ranked offense while Seattle boasts the league’s highest rated defense.
- Seattle QB Sam Darnold popped up on the injury report Thursday with an oblique injury, but is expected to play.
How san francisco Will Try To Win ::
There is a saying in coaching that goes something along the lines of, “sometimes it is about the X’s and O’s, and sometimes it is about the Jim’s and Joe’s”. This is a game that largely depends on which of those types of games it becomes. San Francisco is largely outmatched from a personnel perspective in large part due to their injuries, but they are extremely well coached and have strong schemes on both sides of the ball. Last week they were able to outmaneuver the Eagles, but this week presents a much different challenge. While the Eagles have some of the best personnel in the league, they’ve already fired their offensive coordinator for running one of the most vanilla and stale offenses we saw in 2025 and their defense’s approach is more built along the idea of their guys being better than yours. This week the 49ers face a Seattle team that has one of the most well schemed and diverse defenses in the league and a creative offense built by highly regarded offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who will surely be a hot head coaching candidate whenever the Seahawks season ends. The 49ers seemed to be a step ahead and have more answers than the Eagles last week, but this week on short rest against a team with an extra week to prepare and who can match their scheming abilities will be tough.
San Francisco lost all pro tight end George Kittle to an achilles injury in the first half last week, which is a huge blow to their offense. The loss of Kittle alters their passing game, but we have also seen the 49ers running game take a huge step back whenever Kittle is out of the lineup over the past several seasons. This year was no different and against an elite Seattle run defense that leads the league in DVOA and yards per carry allowed, we can expect the 49ers running game to be stale at best. The 49ers expect WR Ricky Pearsall to be back on the field, but based on his comments throughout the week it seems clear he will not be at full strength. Veteran WR Demarcus Robinson had a huge game against the Eagles with his 61-yard reception and red zone touchdown both coming in the coverage of Philly’s star cornerback Quinyon Mitchell. While there may have been zone concepts involved, the fact remains that Robinson showed himself to be a true threat which the 49ers desperately need right now. We saw Kendrick Bourne explode earlier in the season as well and Jauan Jennings is fully capable himself. Those receivers will need to have strong games in this spot as the 49ers will be struggling to run the ball.
The San Francisco approach will be similar to what we always see, with a focus on sustaining drives and picking up first downs while occasionally hitting on explosive plays that they usually spend the early portions of the game setting up with other play calls. The goal for San Francisco is keep this game close through halftime so they can stay balanced and not become predictable. The worst thing that could happen for the 49ers would be falling behind by multiple scores by halftime and becoming one dimensional. They need to be able to play methodically and pick their spots against an elite Seattle defense.
How seattle Will Try To Win ::
Kickoff Sunday, Jan 18th 1:00pm Eastern
Texans ( 18.75) at
Patriots ( 21.75)
Over/Under 40.5
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Texans RB Jawhar Jordan (ankle) returned to a limited session Wednesday after missing the team’s Wild Card win over the Steelers.
- WR Nico Collins (concussion) did not practice Wednesday as he works his way through protocol. The short week could prove to be an issue for him after the team played Monday, and an absence could prove to be an issue for offensive coordinator Nick Caley.
- The only two ‘DNP’s for the Patriots Wednesday were OTs Morgan Moses (knee) and Thayer Munford. Both were also present on the injury report ahead of their Wild Card win before playing in normal capacities. Notably, Moses played every offensive snap as the starting left tackle in the win.
- The Texans rank first in points allowed per game (16.7) and yards allowed per game (273.3), while the Patriots rank third in points allowed per game (17.9) and sixth in yards allowed per game (290.3).
How houston Will Try To Win ::
Quarterback C.J. Stroud returned from a three-game absence in Week 13, after which time the Texans ranked 20th in PROE. They averaged only 31.7 pass attempts per game in that span after taking a clear pass-heavy approach with Davis Mills under center in Stroud’s absence. Those 10 games make up the team’s current 10-game win streak when added to their Wild Card win over the Steelers, with a noticeable emphasis on a run-balanced offensive approach for as long as they are able to continue in that stance. Furthermore, this is a team that derives its identity from its defense, highlighted by the fact that only three of its wins within its current 10-game win streak were by more than a possession. Former linebacker and now head coach DeMeco Ryans leverages the strength of his defense to keep them in games late, with an aim at unleashing the dogs late when opposing offensive lines are gassed. That is exactly how they beat the Steelers after taking a 7-6 lead into the fourth quarter and would be the likeliest game plan heading into a game against the Patriots in which they appear to be vastly out-matched offensively, particularly considering they are likely to be without alpha wide receiver Nico Collins due to his concussion. That doesn’t instill too much confidence in their expected ability to control the game environment, considering the general lack of efficiency of their ground game and the strength of the New England run defense.
Speaking of the run game, their playoff win over the Steelers was only the second game all season with a 100-yard rusher for the Texans, also going down as a career high for Woody Marks after the rookie surged past the 100-yard threshold with a 13-yard, fourth-quarter score (112 yards on the ground in total). This has not been a great run game throughout the regular season. In fact, they finished 2025 ranked 28th in yards per carry at 4.0 and 22nd in rush yards per game at 112.0, with the obvious caveat that their defense allows them to stay run-balanced deep into games. Marks truly took over as the lead back in Week 10, seeing 66% of the team’s offensive snaps in six of seven games in which he was neither injured nor the team rested its starters at some point (Week 18). He handled 119 carries between Week 10 and Week 17 to the 38 of Jawhar Jordan and 31 of Nick Chubb. A low 3.4% explosive run rate, 3.48 yards per carry, and just 46.2% of the team’s carries inside the five in that span left him with a modest 13.3 XFP/G as the lead runner, scoring just three touchdowns in his last nine appearances. The pure rushing matchup is middling-to-poor on paper against a Patriots defense holding opposing backfields to 4.2 yards per carry (13th) and 19.9 DK points per game (seventh).
The impending absence of Nico Collins is a big deal for the Texans, considering he and tight end Dalton Schultz have operated as the only two near every-down pass-catchers this season. Collins departed after 38 offensive snaps in the team’s Wild Card win over the Steelers (near the end of the third quarter) and plays a role for the offense that really no other pass-catcher can fill, making this an interesting (and wide range of outcomes) situation against the stout Patriots. I wouldn’t expect Christian Kirk or Xavier Hutchinson to see their roles materially change, with it more likely that Jayden Higgins is asked to step into a more robust role in the offense under the assumption that Collins will be unable to clear concussion protocol on a short week. Hutchinson is simply the player most suited to the X-type role, while Kirk does most of his work out of the slot. It will be an interesting puzzle for offensive coordinator Nick Caley to piece together, to say the least. Kirk erupted in the Wild Card Round, but it was a bit outlier-y after seeing a target on 41% of his routes on a modest 62.9% route participation. He was aligned in the slot on 90.9% of those offensive snaps. That said, the Patriots are an underneath and inside-funnel defensive unit that buckles down in the red zone, meaning there remains a path to another outlier-y type game for the veteran slot man. More interesting, to me, in a GPP setting was the 0.27 TPRR and 2.60 YPRR of Higgins last week, particularly considering I expect him to see the highest bump in route participation and snap rate.
How new england Will Try To Win ::
Kickoff Sunday, Jan 18th 6:30pm Eastern
Rams ( 27) at
Bears ( 23.5)
Over/Under 50.5
Game Overview ::
By Mike johnson >>
- This game has the highest game total of the weekend.
- Weather is likely to play a factor in this one, as the temperatures will be well below freezing with winds coming into play as well.
- Chicago’s defense is the worst unit left in the playoffs and just lost another key piece to injury last week.
- The Bears were 9-3 in one-possession games this season, while the Rams were 5-5.
- The Rams trailed by multiple scores in only three games this season and came back to tie the score at some point in every instance, while Chicago has trailed by double digits seven times.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Rams are the Super Bowl favorites right now, despite the fact that they will likely have to play two road games just to get there. That in and of itself explains a lot about what the advanced metrics say about this team and how strong they are on so many levels. They were the #1 ranked offense in DVOA through the run and the pass during the regular season, while their defense was also among the elite. The Rams also led the league in yards per play and scoring. They are a juggernaut, to say the least. Los Angeles had a 12-5 regular season record, with all of their losses being by seven points or less and the Falcons were the only team to beat them that did not make the playoffs. This is a talented team with veteran leadership that is extremely well coached, they will be ready to play.
The Rams had the second highest pass rate in neutral situations this season and Matthew Stafford attempted 42 passes in last week’s win over the Panthers, so make no mistake about it that this team will throw the ball. That being said, this matchup with the Bears defense screams for a run-heavy game plan for Los Angeles. They have a very good offensive line and are facing a depleted Bears defense that has been gashed on the ground often this season. The expected temperatures and the matchup point to a situation where head coach Sean McVay leans on the run to keep the ball moving in a positive direction, while building out their passing concepts from there. This is basically how McVay’s offenses had been structured for a long time, with the Rams leaning heavier on the pass this season with Stafford and his elite receiving options. Expect Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to once again be rotating to stay fresh and this week in this matchup I wouldn’t be shocked if they combine for 30+ carries.
In the passing game, obviously everything starts with Puka Nacua. He was heavily involved early in last week’s game before the Panthers worked diligently to take him away. Last week the Packers were relentlessly targeting Bears slot cornerback Kyler Gordon regardless of who he was covering and we should expect the Rams to do the same, while scheming things in a way to get him on Puka as often as possible. Davante Adams returned to the lineup, but was relatively inefficient against the Panthers with only five receptions on 13 targets. The Rams love using him near the goal line and he sees the highest average depth of target on the team, so don’t be shocked if he steals the show in this one. After those two studs, most of the Rams passing game goes through the tight ends. Colby Parkinson had an incredible play on the game winner last week and is the team’s primary option, while they play multiple tight end formations at a high rate so others get involved as well. Veteran Tyler Higbee had three targets while playing 51% of the snaps last week, including a 36-yard reception. Finally, the team played Davis Allen a lot last week but didn’t target him at all. Rookie Terrance Ferguson has missed the last two games but is out this week. He is a dynamic and versatile receiver who the team is likely to work to get matched up on linebackers at least a couple of times throughout the game. The Rams will use their running game to sustain drives and set up manageable situations, while using their elite talent and scheme to isolate matchups against an overmatched Bears defense through the air.
