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OWS Fam!!!

Welcome to Wild Card Weekend, where we have a particularly unique setup, with a field of 12+ (maybe 13) teams that can legitimately win the Super Bowl. Good luck handicapping!

The only guarantee ahead of us in the playoffs seems to be chaos. This season did not play out in a traditional manner, and so really, why would we expect any change in the postseason? Chaos most certainly awaits us, especially if the odds, spreads, and media coverage are any indication.

Our goal at One Week Season is to put ourselves (you) in the position to win the most; we can win when we are the most right. So, in anticipation of an unpredictable slate of games on Saturday and Sunday, the best use of our time is to recognize where predictability and unpredictability will merge. We just watched a whole regular season of football, and while we know things won’t play out exactly by the book (i.e., top seeds all advancing, chalk mostly prevailing), we do want to handicap the bracket with a dose of reality by looking at what is expected and planning for the unexpected scenarios.

Narratives guide sports. Without them, we’d have little to talk about. It’s mostly because we love stories, good or bad, and we love debates. But mostly, what I love about narratives is they can be exploited. Back in the first psychology class I ever took in high school, I learned of the powers of groupthink (and why it’s cool to be different). As we dive into these games, I thought it would be cool to talk about the setup, the macros, and add thoughts on undervalued, under-discussed situations… because the best lineups, the ones that will win this weekend, will perfectly mix and match these elements.

Rams at Panthers (+10.5)

• Expectation: Rams are the largest favorite on the weekend. Super Bowl-winning coach and probable MVP quarterback should roll the NFC South champs.
• Surprising outcome: Rams win a tight one. The Panthers defense locks down Puka, but it’s not quite enough.
• Undervalued path: The Panthers rushing attack. It’s not a stat that jumps off the screen, but Carolina was eighth in the NFL in yards per carry at home on the season. The Rams rushing defense ranked worst in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt over their last three games (6.40). This was boosted by Bijan Robinson’s career day in Week 17 and some difficult matchups, but there is little doubt Dave Canales will be looking to lean on Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard in this matchup to keep the Rams offense off the field.

Packers at Bears (-1.5)

• Expectation: A close game, with the Bears offense establishing the run and scheming good opportunities. Jordan Love comes out a bit rusty, and the Packers defense misses Micah Parsons just enough.
• Surprising outcome: Either team dominates this matchup. This setup highly favors two of four true outcomes of any game, which is a Bears close win or a Packers close win.
• Undervalued path: Green Bay does with the Bears what it did to the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. Big plays and an effective pass rush. Love with a pass catcher or two is optimal, and the Bears go home as their luck in close games regresses at the worst time.

Bills at Jaguars (+1.5)

• Expectation: Jacksonville has been the better team this season, but Buffalo has been there before. Josh Allen puts on the superhero cape, and the Jaguars shrink just enough on the big stage.
• Surprising outcome: Simply put, Jacksonville wins convincingly. One of the best teams in the last month of the season keeps it going and gets to the next round.
• Undervalued path: Liam Coen has gotten a lot of credit this season, but the expectation is that Sean McDermott’s defensive mind can slow them down in the playoffs. The problem is Buffalo gave up 31 points to the Patriots and 34 points to the Bengals the last time they faced competent offensive opponents. In this scenario, the “year too early” crowd waits one more week on the Jags.

49ers at Eagles (-4.5)

• Expectation: A lower-scoring game featuring explosive players on each side’s home field, plus a better defense separates Philadelphia.
• Surprising outcome: 49ers roll, and Hurts struggles.
• Undervalued path: Jalen Hurts has not shown his rushing upside recently, but a turn-back-the-clock game (ala Philly’s Super Bowl LVII loss to Kansas City), where he totaled four touchdowns but lost to the more efficient QB, is undervalued. Purdy can do the Mahomes here to distribute enough beyond McCaffrey and force the Eagles to deviate from their traditional offense.

Chargers at Patriots (-3.5)

• Expectation: The cold-weather favorite is more prepared to play and ready for the moment. The Patriots win a close game.
• Surprising outcome: An absolute shootout, back-and-forth game.
• Undervalued path: Drake Maye does his best Josh Allen impersonation with his legs and his arm. Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman scheme gash rushes for Omarion Hampton, and the receivers are open everywhere. The last team with the ball wins the game.

There are no guarantees this weekend other than this: we’ll have chaos. Don’t stray too far from the expected, but as you sift through different scenarios and play out these five games, anchor yourself in some of them playing out exactly as expected and some doing the complete opposite.

Mix and match for the win this weekend, and most of all, enjoy the games! See you at the top of the leaderboards.

Good luck!
~Larejo

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

First off, we’re going to focus the brunt of the End Around on the six-game main slate this week, adding in some theoretical thoughts on the two-game Saturday slate and the three-game Sunday slate where it makes sense. On that note, one of the biggest edges we can generate this weekend is to use the new pieces of information from each game being played to steer our decisions for the remainder of whatever slate we’re focused on, with the goal being to compare the output of the players on our roster to the optimal production from said game.

For example, Puka Nacua is staring us in the face as the top pay-up option from the first game of the weekend. Did he go off at high ownership? Did he post a relative dud, and the touchdowns went to Davante Adams? Did Kyren Williams pop in two scores randomly? Was it Tyler Higbee that found paint twice? The way to conceptualize this process is to build rosters for the first game only. We’re optimal hunting (specifically on the two-game and three-game slates). How close was the actual production to the expected optimal from that game? Take that information and adjust the remainder of your builds to account for the actual outcome. If Puka Nacua “fails” at high salary and high ownership, which player is likeliest to benefit from that outcome? Since we expect the Rams to score points with a high degree of confidence, considering they have the slate’s highest Vegas implied team total, is it likelier that they completely dud, or is the percentage solution that someone else from the Rams simply accounted for the touchdowns? In this example, I want to ensure I have rosters in play on the six-game main slate that have only Higbee, or Matthew Stafford + Higbee + Adams, or only Kyren, or Rams D/ST + Higbee or Williams. A massive chunk of the rosters in play this weekend could be dead for a bink before we even get to the second game of the slate if Nacua fails, for whatever reason. Don’t let that be you! Build for optimal in the first game and adjust from there.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The PPR RB1 by over 12% higher than the RB2 (Bijan Robinson) in a win-and-advance playoff game. Sounds about right. CMC deserves to be up here.

JOSH JACOBS

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Quite simply, one of my favorite “in a vacuum” plays on the slate from a range of outcomes versus salary perspective. The field got this one right, in my opinion.

PUKA NACUA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The PPR WR1 by over 10% higher than the WR2 (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) in a win-and-advance playoff game with the highest Vegas implied team total on the slate. Sounds about right. Puka deserves to be here. That said, there are significant theoretical aspects of the play considering the Rams play in the first game of the slate (covered above).

SAQUON BARKLEY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Quite simply, one of my favorite “in a vacuum” plays on the slate from a range of outcomes versus salary perspective. The field got this one right, in my opinion.

CHALK BUILD::

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies, which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections):

Running Back

• Saquon Barkley – Elite matchup, improving offensive line, likely heavy workload, and lowest salary of the season. Yes, please.
• TreVeyon Henderson – The Patriots are facing a Chargers defense that has feasted on weaker offenses, but can be beaten on the ground. Rhamondre Stevenson has scored five touchdowns on 22 touches over the last two weeks, but Henderson has a massive ceiling and a modest salary.
• Josh Jacobs – Elite matchup and appears to be back at or near full strength for this rivalry game. Lowest salary of the season and a strong bet for at least one touchdown.
• James Cook – The one thing that has held James Cook back a bit this season has been the team’s insistence on using Ty Johnson on passing downs. This week, Johnson has not yet practiced, and Cook is playing in the best projected game environment on the slate.
• Travis Etienne Jr. – Etienne has emerged as the clear primary and most trusted player in the backfield for the Jaguars, and he has a terrific matchup this week.
• Christian McCaffrey – The reality here is that CMC could very easily touch the ball 30+ times with 7 to 10 receptions. The volume gives him a high floor and the lack of other options for the 49ers in this matchup gives him a ceiling that can’t be ignored.

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Wildcard Topics

1. Contest Selection

2. Preferred Game Environments

3. GPP Winners

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1. Contest Selection

The Question ::

What slates and contests are you planning to play this weekend and what are some things that you are focusing on in your builds or strategies as you enter these contests?

The Answers ::

Xandamere >>

I like playing two different strategies on small slates. I play large-field tournaments in which I aim to be overweight on various bench players, because the field  tends to underrate the likelihood that some cheap punt guy scores a touchdown and is in optimal lineups at minimum salaries. Most (not all, but most!) small slates see punt plays in optimal lineups and that’s especially true in playoffs when most teams tend to have real stud skill position players that can put up huge scores, and punt plays let you afford more of those studs. This is a much higher-variance strategy, and worth noting it works better on Fanduel and Yahoo with their half-point PPR scoring system, as a rando dude grabbing a touchdown is more likely to be optimal. 

I also play small field stuff and in those tournaments I focus on just building tight, strong top to bottom rosters and let other people make mistakes. 

Finally, on any slate that progresses over time like this one, I like building duplicate lineups. So, if I have 150 entries in a contest, I’ll start with 50 lineups. My goal is to find the optimal build from the first game, and then if I find it, I want to have multiple copies of it so I can build around those potentially winning starts in different ways. Building as the slate progresses lets you make smart decisions once you see where you are and what you need, and most people just build once so it’s a huge edge to continue building in different ways as we get more information. 

Hilow >>

I’ll be playing the biggest MME contests for all available slates this weekend, using layered strategies across all slates. As we’ve talked about on other sequential short slates this season (Thanksgiving, Christmas, previous MNF double-headers), these slates are so unique because we get more information with each passing game, drive, and play. We also know how the theoretical components of short slate play interact with valuable concepts like optimal score and score needed to win, making these slates a game theorist’s dream. I plan on leveraging as much of that as I possibly can this weekend, meaning MME play in the biggest contests available.

I’m with X on overarching strategies – I typically like building duplicates on slates like these to allow me even more maneuverability throughout the weekend. Finally, I plan on building some 6-game rosters as if they were two-game and three-game slates as the field generally wants to account for every game on builds for short slates. 

Mike >>

My main focus for the weekend is the full 6-game slate that entails all the games on the weekend from Saturday through Monday. I like the strategy elements of the staggered game times as well as the bigger player pools. I prefer playing larger contests with bigger payouts at the top, and those types of contests are tough to give yourself a chance to win without having a duplicated lineup when you get into the smaller playoff slates. I’ll of course be playing the Saturday 2-game slate and Sunday 3-game slate as well, particularly on Fanduel where the full weekend contests are somewhat limited, but based on the salaries, contests, etc. my main focus this weekend is the full weekend slate.

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2. Preferred Game Environments

The Question ::

This week presents a massive change in thought process and approach as we are coming off the most uncertain week of the year in Week 18 in terms of how teams will approach things, what player usage will be, and even whether or not some teams actually even want to win…..and head into the NFL Playoffs when every team’s goal is very clear. With that in mind, this feels like the most competitive and unpredictable opening weekend I can remember as five of the six games have spreads of four points or less, nine of the twelve teams playing won 11 or more games this season, and two of the three teams who were under that mark are playing at home. It sure feels like this could be a fun and wild weekend (pun intended). 

With all of that in mind, there is the potential for a game environment or two to really take off. What are your two favorite game environments to build around this weekend?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

Conviction is a blessing and a curse. Having conviction gets you places in life. Decision-making in its finest form, the art of being confident and decisive, can be powerful. The older we get, however, the conviction becomes sharper. We learn each day, each week, month, and year of our lives. As we build experiences, we understand what’s right, what’s wrong, and then over time can make quicker, faster decisions and have stronger convictions on minor or major events. Unpacking why we have convictions is the real test. It should always start with “why”? The testing of convictions is the only real way to know whether those convictions are founded or unfounded. Of course, the reason why I bring this up is that I feel strong convictions about these games on Saturday and Sunday. But unlike my younger self, I’m going to challenge these and test them before blindly following my instincts. Instincts are good, conviction is better, but grounded predictions based on fact and plausibility rule it all.

Conviction #1: Panthers can hang with the Rams

Look, I like the Rams here like everyone else, but we shouldn’t overlook the fact that they went 3-3 over their last six games of the season, with two of those three wins coming against the Cardinals. In Week 13, the first game of this stretch, the Panthers beat them 31-28 in Carolina, which so happens to be the exact setup of this playoff game. Fast forward six weeks, and now the fifth-seed Rams are installed as 10+ point favorites on the road in Carolina. Getting Davante Adams back will certainly help, but to expect Stafford, Puka, and McVay to go into Carolina and completely stomp seems more unrealistic than expecting the Panthers to hang around.

How to play in DFS: Rico Dowdle

Dave Canales seems like a good coach. If he is, he likely won’t be deploying the same game plan they did in their Week 13 win against these Rams. Why? Because logic says that while Carolina did some great things in that game, like forcing the ball away from Puka, the Rams should be expected to adjust and come into this game with answers. Not to mention the pick-six return touchdown from the Carolina defense in that game, which you cannot count on repeating. Enter the rushing attack this week. The proven way to slow down an opposing offense is to keep them off the field. Dowdle has been closer to a 60/40 split with Chuba Hubbard in recent weeks, but he had some monster box scores earlier in the season, and Canales was not afraid to ride him. After getting gashed by Bijan Robinson in Week 17, and despite the weak Cardinals rushing attack in Week 18, it’s the Rams who actually are the worst in the NFL over the last three games in rushing yards allowed per attempt. It’s a small sample, but Dowdle could be the answer to the Panthers hanging around in this matchup.

Conviction #2: Bears and Packers are who we thought they were

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

Strategy for Underdog’s “The Gauntlet” & “The Mitten”

(Updated 1/6/2025)

Overview 

• Six-player snake draft comprised of ten rounds in a Best Ball tournament format.
• Teams are made up of 10 total players with a starting lineup of five players: 1 QB, 2 WR/TE, 1 RB, and 1 Flex.
• Advancement rates vary by contest:
  • The Gauntlet: four-round structure through the Super Bowl, with the top team advancing out of a group of six in the first round, followed by one team advancing out of a group of six in the second round, and then one out of a group of five in the third round. The finals are composed of 500 teams in the Super Bowl with $500,000 up top. 
  • The Mitten’s advancement is easier in round one (top two of six advance), but then more difficult in the second round (1 of 10) and the conference championships round (also 1 of 10), before a 375-team Super Bowl.

• Getting out of the first round is crucial, but difficult if drafting four or more players from bye teams (as of this writing, the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos) in a 1 of 6 advance structure like The Gauntlet.
• Like a Milly Maker on DK, the payout structure is extremely top heavy. 

• The last two bullets bring up an interesting dilemma as the two bye teams are the most likely to make the conference final and Super Bowl, but drafting several of those players also hampers your chances of getting out of the first round. 

• To win, you will likely need (at least) five players to reach the Super Bowl. This incentivizes stacking your lineups to consolidate around a few teams you are hoping can make deep playoff runs; however, an aggressive stacking strategy has its trade-offs. If you prioritize stacking elite contenders, this will likely have you drafting some poorly projected depth players to round out your team. Someone in your first pod/round will likely have drafted studs on Wild Card teams, and while they will have an uphill battle to win the whole tournament, these teams will have a leg up on getting out of the first round.
• If you consider stacking both bye teams, you must cap that at a total of 5 players, and you are fighting an uphill battle to advance. The tournament is very top-heavy, and the two one-seeds are the most likely to advance, so we will discuss below some of the strategies to best balance this predicament and try to thread a very thin needle to advance a team to the final 300ish teams.

Roster Composition

Stacking is critical as you want to try to set yourself up to build around multiple teams (ideally 3-4 total) with at least one team from each conference. You also want to keep in mind the story you are telling with your build. If your roster is built around two #2 seeds (aka two non-bye teams) making the Super Bowl, you’ll want to keep in mind that if that happens, there will likely be rosters with 7-8 active players (or potentially more) in the finals. As mentioned above, the contests are top-heavy, so a roster with only 4-5 live/active players will be at a severe disadvantage and likely blocked out for first in a situation like this.

Quarterback Strategy

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

The trifecta::

Strategy Ideas and Things to Consider for Sunday’s 3 Game Slate