Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- The only ‘DNP’ on the Pittsburgh injury report Thursday was RB Jaylen Warren (illness). I would not expect the illness to influence his ability to suit up on Monday.
- The Houston offense is mostly healthy outside of third-string RB Jawhar Jordan, who missed Thursday’s practice with an ankle injury. Also notable are injuries to three starting offensive linemen, with OG Tytus Howard the only one of which missed practice entirely on Thursday (ankle). T Trent Brown was limited and Aireontae Ersery was a full go.
- CB Kamari Lassiter (ankle/knee) and DT Denico Autry (knee) also did not practice Thursday for the Texans.
- This game carries the lowest game total of Wild Card Weekend for good reason.
HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Texans rank sixth in plays per game (64.0), 10th in pass rate over expectation (PROE), eighth in pass attempts per game (34.2), and 13th in rush attempts per game (27.9), with much of that due to a defense allowing the second-fewest yards per game (279.1), the second-fewest points per game (17.4), and the fourth-fewest opponent plays per game (57.9) this season. From a macro perspective, the Texans have been one of the teams most closely aligned with the game environment when considering offensive play-calling tendencies, hovering right around neutral in PROE while also altering their pace of play more than most teams, dependent on game environment. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has six full games with 29 pass attempts or fewer and six games with 30 pass attempts or more this season, getting as high as 49 pass attempts in a loss to the Seahawks in Week 7. Add in the three starts by Davis Mills and the two games of combined quarterback play (one where Stroud was injured and one in Week 18 with Stroud resting in the second half) and the team is left with nine games of 30 or more pass attempts and eight games with 30 or fewer. Consider the Texans a pass-neutral team, with it obvious that an underperforming offensive line and uncertain running back rotation the key reasons I think they have taken that approach in offensive coordinator Nick Caley’s first season at the helm.
Rookie running back Woody Marks clearly gives this team the best chances at an efficient run game. That should come with little surprise considering we’re comparing him to veteran Nick Chubb after yet another major knee injury, veteran journeyman Dare Ogunbowale, and practice-squad back Jawhar Jordan, the latter of whom did not see NFL action until Week 15 (and is now injured). Ogunbowale is a pure change-of-pace/passing specialist, Jordan missed practice Thursday with an ankle injury and carries an uncertain status into the weekend, and Chubb has not had anywhere near the same juice in 2025. That’s effectively a long way of saying that Marks has paths to borderline (if not full-on) workhorse usage in the postseason after seeing a 66% snap rate or higher in five of his last six fully healthy games to end the regular season (injured in Week 15, missed Week 16, and departed with starters in the second half of Week 18). The problem for us is that he peaked at just 16.1 DK points in those six games. In fact, Houston backs averaged only 3.9 yards per carry this season, 29th in the league ahead of only the 49ers, Saints, and Raiders. As we’ve been reminded at multiple points this season, volume and touchdowns are king at the running back position, and Marks would seem to have a clear path to both in this spot. The matchup is middling on paper against a Steelers team allowing 4.3 yards per carry (15th) and 20.4 DK points per game to opposing backfields, including the fewest total touchdowns allowed to the position this season (seven).
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
Weeks 9 to 17 give us the clearest snapshot of late-season tendencies for the Houston pass catchers as it includes games with all of Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson, Jayden Higgins, Christian Kirk, Jaylin Noel, and Dalton Schultz healthy and active. Collins (84.8%) and Schultz (78.9%) were the only two players with a route participation greater than 55% in that sample, with a clear lean into a “stars then rotation” structure. Higgins (1.88) joins Collins (2.68) and Schultz (1.47) as the only three pass catchers with a yards per route run (YPRR) greater than 1.21 (Noel), although Noel ran only 97 routes in that nine-game sample. Those three were also the only three pass catchers with a targets per route run (TPRR) greater than 0.17 (0.25 for Collins, 0.23 for Higgins, and 0.22 for Schultz). Nothing in those profiles other than the 2.68 YPRR mark for Collins is elite, making the lot largely “touchdown or bust” bets for fantasy purposes. The Steelers have been susceptible to tight ends over the intermediate middle of the field and to deep passing, keeping all three primary contributors in play in a GPP setting.
