Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
There are three games on the Thanksgiving slate, each of which carries a game total between 49.0 (Packers @ Lions) and 52.5 (Chiefs @ Cowboys). That macro realization is going to guide much of our exploitative stances on this short slate, if nothing more than for the simple fact that Vegas is currently projecting three games with similar environments. The first two games on the slate carry spreads within three points, while the Ravens are favored by a solid seven. That leaves Baltimore with the highest Vegas implied team total, which has directly inflated the expected ownership of their players. We’ll discuss more of the nuanced aspects of that realization below.
As we discuss every year on the Thanksgiving slate, this slate is unlike any other throughout the season. The primary reason is that it is a slate played in sequence, rather than played simultaneously (as most other slates in the year are). I went into the theoretics of that truth on the Tuesday edition of DFS Labs, but will quickly touch on the wavetops here.
Picture the game tree of a slate as an upside-down Christmas tree, starting at a single point and extending upwards and outwards. This game tree represents every decision point along with every outcome available to us, is borderline infinite on a normal slate but carries far fewer total outcomes on a three-game slate, and will have an optimal path. On a full slate, we know we have more leeway away from optimal to win. On a one-game slate, we know we often must hit the exact optimal to win. On a three-game slate, in contests with more than 600,000 entries, we know we must be closer to the actual optimal to win on this slate. But the biggest change on the Thanksgiving slate is that the game tree is effectively three small trees placed on top of each other due to the sequential nature of the slate, with three games played back-to-back-to-back as opposed to at the same time. That means we get more information with each passing game, each passing quarter, and each passing play. As a general rule, the bulk of the field will not be approaching things in this manner, instead setting a roster, or portfolio of rosters, and letting things play out. We have a distinct edge in making adjustments at each new decision point in the game tree (each game) as more information is added.
Knowing that we must be as close to optimal as possible, if not exact optimal, to win on this slate, we should be adjusting the remainder of our rosters/portfolio based on how close to optimal a given roster is after each game is played.
Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
A quick note before we jump into the chalk. We’re only going to cover the top ownership expectation at each position to streamline our discussion on the Thanksgiving slate.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The quarterback for the team leading the league in PROE, who also ranks third in pass attempts per game, is against the Cowboys. Checks out, on paper.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The receiver leading the league in XFP/G (ranks behind only Christian McCaffrey at all positions) is playing with his starting quarterback for the first time since Week 2 and without Tee Higgins. Checks out.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Henry has seen 20 or more opportunities in each of his previous six games, against the worst defense in the league. Checks out.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Andrews has seen five or fewer targets in each game since the team’s Week 5 bye, making him heavily reliant on touchdowns for his fantasy production. Cracks are starting to show themselves.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Ravens have started to play better football while getting much healthier, on both sides of the ball. That said, their opponents since their Week 7 bye were the Bears, the Dolphins, the Vikings, the Browns, and the Jets – not exactly a murderer’s row of offensive ability. They have only 18 sacks and 13 takeaways on the year and are averaging 2.0 sacks and 2.0 takeaways per game since their bye. More cracks.
