JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
i’ve been a little slow getting started this week.
the last two weeks, of course, have been nuts.
we had the travel fiascos at the end of week 12, and then week 13 was an outrageously ugly sunday slate, along with thanksgiving week (family and double “main slates” from a content and preparation perspective), added to another round of sickness on my end late in the week (thankfully already kicked), and all said and done, a really nice two-slate stretch of play on my end and an enormously profitable week for the ows fam.
i opened the week 14 slate on sunday night and immediately closed it. i spent a bit of time with it monday night, and then closed it again.
it’s not an ugly slate. it might even turn out to be a slate we like a lot. but it doesn’t appear to be a slate with any super cheap stacks or blocks on concentrated offenses (think tyrod & co last week, or brissett & co the first week mhj missed). it doesn’t appear to be a slate with a smash-potential qb play (think bo nix that week against the giants; man, what a season we’ve had!). and with us being at a point in the season where pricing is really tight, it would be nice to have one of those things.
the start of the month always puts some “work” on my plate (business/admin stuff), and this month had more than normal. but i cleared all of that out today, and the remainder of this week is probably my easiest “nfl work” week of the year ::
i’m at my in-laws’ house in central oklahoma — which means 40 quiet acres with longhorns and chickens, no travel for reserving lineups, no dance classes or soccer practice or afternoons at the go kart track, no family outings, and with my mother-in-law’s favorite thing in the world being taking care of her grandchildren (of whom mine are numbers 12 & 13 — & by far her youngest, with seven of her grandkids now 19 or older), it also means far fewer responsibilities on that side of things for me as well. basically, with my work cleared out, the rest of my week is watching games, listening to content, and thinking about the slate. i’m behind on the week — but i won’t be behind for long.
over the next few hours, i’ll be digging in deeply for the first time this week.
later tonight, i’ll have some journal entries.
tomorrow (probably later in the day), i’ll have plenty more.
let’s get started!
on my first practice build, i asked the question: “can i play jsn, puka, and ja’marr together?”
the answer is probably no. you have to take a sub-$5k quarterback, a couple running backs in the $5k to $6k range, and go cheap at dst (which means missing out on the browns at home vs the titans — a potential “seattle v brosmer”-type producer).
but it did put me onto the following, marginally-interesting block:
$5.9k.
last 5 games:
18.4
16.2
16.5
11.0
32.8
pairing: kmet + loveland.
as this offense has evolved, the te position has become more involved.
ideally, we want better production than that — but if salary savers are as thin as they appear they might be this week, this one is at least worth having in our back pocket.
one complication to that bears te pairing (and another thing to keep in mind) :: “cheap te” looks deep this week.
likely and andrews both have a great matchup v pit.
miami filters targets away from wideouts and toward tight ends (mason taylor).
gunnar helm keeps stacking wins. (if you haven’t watched him yet, he’s pretty awesome. he’s so under the radar that the only nfl highlights i can find of him on youtube are from a preseason game. i wanted to drop a clip for you guys — but apparently you’ll just have to buckle down and watch a titans game one weekend. sorry for your eyes.)
darren waller carries ceiling.
brenton strange has posted 10.5 // 12.1 // 13.5 // 14.3 in his last four healthy games, and has a great te matchup and likely aggressive game script vs indy.
juwan johnson has double-digit points in 5 of 6 (and 8.9 in his other).
kirk cousins is obsessed with kyle pitts if london is still out — & tight ends rack up targets vs seattle.
dalton kincaid (17.6+ in 3 of 7 healthy games) should be back this week in an outrageously good matchup v cincy.
all of these guys are $4.3k or cheaper.
this doesn’t even include warren v jax, or bowers // mcbride.
te looks deep.
wr does not.
i’ve been heavy on two-te builds this year — & it’s another week where that looks like an early favorite for my builds.
how “not deep” does wr look?
here are the wideouts on the entire slate who A) cost more than $5k, and B) **in their current situation** (the role they’ll have this week) have gone 4x or better their week 14 salary **at any point in the season** (buckle up) ::
jsn, $9k :: week 12 v ten
zay flowers, $6.1k :: week 1 v buf (no other games over 2.5x)
dk metcalf, $5.4k :: week 4 v min (only one other game over 3.06x)
michael pittman, $5.4k :: week 8 v ten // week 9 v pit
alec pierce, $5.1k :: week 9 v pit
egbuka, $6.3k :: week 5 v seattle // week 10 v ne
ja’marr, $8.2k :: week 2 v jax // week 7 v pit (technically, he’s in a different situation now than he was vs pit, but with the situation being a qb upgrade to burrow, we won’t pick nits)
higgins, $6.2k :: week 9 v chi (same as chase: this is technically a different situation — but better)
courtland sutton, $5.6k :: week 3 v lac
troy franklin, $5.5k :: week 2 v ind // week 8 v dal
rome odunze, $5.7k :: week 2 v det
puka, $8.7k :: week 4 v ind
and that’s it.
that’s the list.
deebo ($5.5k) got there — just barely — a couple times with jayden. olave got there once with rattler. you could lump those guys into the pile if you want.
but the point still stands: the chances are not all that high of you nailing a 4-leg parlay (playing 4 wideouts and getting all of them right) when “nailing each leg” means “getting something that’s only happening — if we’re being generous — 10% of the time across the board.” In fact, the chances of you getting four wideouts correct on a roster together (if by “correct” we mean 4x or better) are somewhere in the general range of 1 in 10,000.
so.
yeah.
i might use a flex spot on a tight end this week and give myself only 3 wide receiver spots i have to deal with.
(and if i can find a way, i’ll probably pay up for certainty on a couple of those wide receiver spots.)
i missed one game :: mclaurin last week.
so — putting a bow on that:
there are 26 wideouts on this slate (assuming mhj plays) priced at $5k or higher.
only 13 have gone for 4x their salary at any point this year (in the situation they’re in this week).
among the 26 wideouts priced at $5k or higher, there have been 17 total games that would have kept you on a 200-point pace.
filtering out “situations that are different” (jayden’s games, michael wilson playing without mhj, rattler instead of shough, etc.), these wideouts have played 265 total games.
and okay. honestly. let’s put rattler’s games in and say that rattler to shough isn’t a clear downgrade, and we should only account for situations that are clearly different. i’m good with that.
so then we have 14/26 who have “hit,” and 18 total games of someone hitting.
we also then have 273 total, relevant games played.
across 273 games, we have 18 instances of a player keeping you on a 200-point pace — or a 6.59% hit rate.
what are the chances of hitting something that only happens 6.59% of the time across four spots at once?
about one in every 53,000.
this is important stuff to keep in mind.
this is why the high-priced guys (who might not get you 4x, but will typically get you that 20-30 point score you’re often missing from the cheaper guys) are so valuable.
and this is why a guy like shakir (who bombed last week, and has a bad matchup this week; but just using him as an example) — who rarely smashes, but often posts a strong score — sometimes becomes attractive deeper into the season.
we need to look for ways to turn the math in our favor.
it’s tricky at wide receiver right now.
speaking of things that happen more frequently than “a $5k or higher wideout going for 4x his salary”…
this is what backfields have done against buffalo this year:
15.2 — pit
10.4 — hou
45.2 — tb
44.9 — mia
13.7 — kc
16.4 — car
49.6 — atl
23.0 — ne
23.7 — no
25.9 — mia
8.5 — nyj
31.6 — bal
i wouldn’t want to pay $10.9k for a player with a game log like that. that’s five games of 16.4 or fewer dk points, which is ugly…
but that’s also three games of 44.9 or more(!) — or 25% of the time. and if you recall: historically (though clearly not so much with wideouts this year), dk prices players in such a way that they’ll hit roughly 4x their salary roughly 20% to 25% of the time.
backfields have gone for 44.9+ against the bills 25% of the time this year.
the bengals’ backfield (chase brown + perine) costs $10.9k.
the bengals’ backfield has recent scores of:
24.7 (brown + perine)
18.0 (brown)
18.7 (brown)
19.2 (brown)
42.5 (brown + perine)
18.1 (brown + perine)
once again: i wouldn’t pay $10.9k for a player with that game log…
but there is a 42-pointer in there.
it’s probably fair to say that we would get 40+ from brown + perine around 20% of the time in this matchup — and in terms of what it would open up for your roster, this would be equivalent to paying $5.45k per rb spot.
i expect to put four lineups into play this week.
i could see this pairing going onto one of them (and maybe paying up for jsn + puka on two other spot — i.e., “bengals’ rbs smash, taking away ceiling from ja’marr, and clearing a pathway to first place for rosters that went a different direction at high-priced wr”)
would you pay $12.1k ($2k to $3k more than we’re often willing to pay for cmc, jsn, puka, or “jt in the right matchup”) for the following game log? ::
30.9
35.6
40.2
55.6
50.3
53.9
44.3
38.4
26.7
42.5
we’ve talked a lot recently about what “full backfields + tight ends” (four players) have done v cincy this year — but that list is “lead rb + te v cincy” across the bengals’ last 10 games. (and while i won’t take the time to dig even deeper here, i feel confident in saying that each of the scores above represents one of the best scores of the season — and in many cases, the best score of the season — for the rb + te combos on that list).
that list, of course, doesn’t tell the full story, either.
30.9 — bal — has two main tight ends
35.6 — ne — has a split backfield
40.2 — pit — has a split backfield and a split tight end room
55.6 — chi
50.3 — nyj
53.9 — pit — has a split backfield and a split tight end room
44.3 — gb
38.4 — det — has a split backfield
26.7 — den — has a split backfield
42.5 — min
in the seven healthy games kincaid has played, james cook + kincaid have combined for scores of:
41.6
39.9
24.7
35.5
41.4
37.2
36.0
that almost makes you feel comfortable with a $12.1k price tag right there (six of seven games going for 35+) — and they’re playing an opponent that has allowed 35+ to eight of the last 10 “lead rb + lead te” combos they’ve faced, including six games of 40+ and three games of 50+.
i’ve been trying to figure out how to attack this game.
if kincaid comes back this week, this looks like an obvious way to do so.
here’s a look at pre-touchdown fantasy scoring among some of the key players on this week’s slate:
19.0 (2.18x) — puka (but only 14.9 (1.71x) across his last five games since he returned from injury)
18.3 (2.03x) — jsn (includes 3 points for the hundred-yard bonus eight times, along with seven touchdowns)
17.7 (2.01x) — achane (7 games without tyreek, minus the weird game in cleveland) || also has the 100-yard bonus (worth half a touchdown) in four of seven, and has 7 tds in these 7 games
17.1 (2.14x) — mcbride in seven games with brissett (also has 7 touchdowns in these 7 games)
16.7 (2.04x) — ja’marr chase (we don’t have a representative sample, of course; but it’s fair to copy/paste his season-long numbers here)
14.5 (1.86x) — james cook; though if we want to cheat a bit and remove his three worst games (assuming this isn’t a spot where those games would be representative of baseline expectations), he jumps to 16.5 (2.12x)
12.6 (1.94x) — chris olave
12.3 (1.81x) — josh jacobs (removing the game in which he got injured)
12.3 (1.84x) — chase brown (we don’t really have a representative sample for him, as he has played very few games with burrow (a boost) and perine (a detriment), but this feels like roughly his expected range in his current split-backfield role
12.0 (1.85x) — breece hall
10.8 (1.64x) — kyren williams
10.6 (2.12x) — tyler warren
10.6 (1.68x) — travis etienne
10.2 (1.89x) — michael pittman (pittman also has more touchdowns than most players priced this low)
10.2 (2.00x) — alec pierce
10.1 (1.31x) — davante adams (lol)
9.8 (2.51x) — brenton strange (taking out the game in which he got hurt; he has only one touchdown in his six healthy games, but he does have a matchup boost here)
9.7 (2.26x) — dalton kincaid (taking his seven healthy games — with four touchdowns in those games and a matchup boost here)
9.3 (2.33x) — juwan johnson
9.2 (2.19x) — kyle pitts (with an increased role in the “cousins, no london” offense, and in a matchup boost — though with only one touchdown on the year)
9.2 (1.44x) — quinshon judkins
8.5 (1.55x) — troy franklin
ranking those by salary multipliers:
2.51x — brenton strange
2.33x — juwan johnson
2.26x — dalton kincaid
2.19x — kyle pitts
2.18x — puka (if you want to take his season-long numbers; 1.71x since coming back)
2.14x — trey mcbride
2.12x — tyler warren
2.04x — ja’marr chase
2.03x — jsn
2.01x — de’von achane
2.00x — alec pierce
1.94x — chris olave
1.89x — michael pittman
1.86x — james cook
1.85x — breece hall
1.84x — chase brown
1.81x — josh jacobs
1.68x — travis etienne
1.64x — kyren williams
1.55x — troy franklin
1.44x — quinshon judkins
1.31x — davante adams
this list is a reminder to us that tight ends and high-priced players tend to perform best in this metric (with high-priced players often likelier to hit the bonus, score touchdowns, and see production swings to the upside as well).
i’ve been heavy all season on “two te, squeeze in multiple high-priced pieces” builds. this is a glimpse into why this has worked so well.
I don’t know that I necessarily LIKE this slate, but I do feel like I’m seeing it well. With the extra time available on my end and a slate that’s making sense to me, I’ve been crafting my initial Player Grid shape early this week — so let’s dive into what I’m currently seeing:
LIGHT BLUE ::
JSN :: The Vikings are not a good matchup for quarterbacks, but a matchup (indoors) against a more static Atlanta D should allow JSN to bounce right back to his normal range of production. He entered last week with only one game all season under 20.3 DK points (four games of 29+), and I expect him to bounce right back this week.
James Cook :: We’ve covered this one already, but it’s a great matchup, and the Bills are leaning on him at the moment.
Achane :: We hit on this toward the tail end of last week, when I started coming around on Achane as a guy I wanted to make non-negotiable for my Week 13 builds. His pre-touchdown production justifies the price tag, and the fact that he has scored seven touchdowns in seven games without Tyreek is an added boost.
Trey McBride :: I would rank Cook // Achane // McBride as follows :: Cook > Achane > McBride. Tight end has a lot of quality, cheap options, while running back is pretty thin outside the top. There also aren’t many quality salary savers away from tight end — all of which might make it tough to create space for McBride in what could prove to be a tough matchup vs the Rams. But if there’s no Marvin Harrison Jr. again, a strong case can be made for finding a way to play him.
BUILD-AROUND ::
Colts pass catchers :: You may have noticed that all of Warren // Pittman // Pierce popped in terms of pre-touchdown production. I expect Liam Coen to find a way to score points here, and the Jags have been a major pass funnel on the season. These guys are in a weird price range if you’re trying to pay up for as many high-priced guys as possible; but if not for that, I would probably have a rule this week of “make sure I include at least one Colts pass catcher on every roster.” It’s not that I necessarily expect a definite smash game from one of these guys. It’s more that I think solid scores will be tough to find on this slate, and we’re highly likely to get a solid score from at least two of these guys.
Bills :: I’ll have the Cook + Kincaid block in the Building Blocks. This will serve to shout out the fact that Josh Allen can be considered/added as well.
>>
BUILDING BLOCKS ::
Cook + Kincaid :: I’m really hoping Kincaid is healthy this week. If he is, I might end up playing this on all four of my rosters. (And if he’s not, I’m guessing I’ll have Cook on every roster. It’s early to make a statement like that, of course — but that’s at least how I’m seeing this slate at the moment.)
Lawrence + Jakobi + Strange :: It’s looking like Parker Washington will miss, and this block ($15k) has already posted 56.5 // 50.4 in their last two games (with Washington leaving last week’s game early). The Jags are leading this division, have won games against the 49ers and Chiefs, and have crushed the Chargers at home — and yet, they’re underdogs against the Colts. I’m not saying that’s wrong or right. I’m just looking at it from the Jags’ perspective. I think this is a classic showcase/statement-type game for the Jags. That’s also not to say they’ll win. I just think Coen will have a great game plan here, and there’s a good chance the team executes his plan. That’s a short way of saying: I think the Jags play well here, on offense. This is a good way to try to capture that potential.
QB ::
Tyrod Taylor :: Right now, my QB list is only Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, and Tyrod Taylor — and I’m not totally sure I would play Tyrod with a stacking partner. (It’s a tough spot for wideouts. And I’m not sure I trust Mason Taylor, especially with so many quality low-cost tight ends on the board.) I’m guessing I’ll find one or two more quarterbacks to consider as this week moves along; but I have built a few practice rosters so far that use naked Tyrod to open salary for other things I’m trying to attempt.
RB 1A ::
Currently none
RB 1B ::
Chase Brown + Perine block :: We covered this yesterday. This block has recently gone for 4x their combined salary, and three of the last 10 backfields against the Bills have posted a score that would be 4x (or better) the combined salary of these two. You could comfortably call it a 15% to 20% chance that this pairing keeps you on a 200-point pace. That’s easily strong enough for consideration on this week. (If not for the fact that so many other backfields have finished under 20 vs the Bills, and that Cincy isn’t great at running the ball, this would be in the 1A section for me.)
Quinshon Judkins :: Especially if Sampson misses, a 3x to 4x is in play. This is volume-based, as Tennessee has been solid against running backs of late (outside of touchdowns allowed), and they will surely try to force Shedeur to beat them. 25 carries for under 100 yards is not out of the question for Judkins, and we’re probably looking at 11-16 DK points before touchdowns (small receiving role, with 80-100 yards a decent expectation on the ground). But one or two touchdowns is also a possibility.
Devin Neal :: He had over 75% of the backfield touches last week, and while it’s a bad matchup on the ground vs Tampa (with bad game environment expectations), the Bucs have allowed the 11th most catches and the most receiving yards to running backs. At a cheap price tag, I’ll keep him in mind.
RB2 ::
Currently none
>>
WR 1A ::
Puka Nacua — His snap count is back up, and his target rate is there, but it’s still tough to ignore the “low for price” pre-touchdown production since he came back from injury (especially when touchdown production is not a big part of his game). Still, if looking under the hood (and trusting what you see), he’s an ultra-strong play.
Ja’Marr Chase — Same as Puka :: just because he’s not in the Light Blue section doesn’t mean I dislike him. With both of these guys, I’m looking for ways to play them. But this is what WR1s have done v Buffalo on the season:
6.2 — dk
8.5 — nico with mills
9.0 — egbuka
19.4 — waddle
18.6 — rashee
16.9 — tmac
34.8 — london
27.6 — diggs
9.0 — olave
15.9 — tyreek
9.0 — garrett wilson
31.1 — flowers
The bottom six games on this list (Flowers through London; three games in six of 27+) came before Maxwell Hairston made his way onto the field. The other six games (TMac through DK; no games over 20) came with Hairston playing. Hairston hasn’t lit the world on fire, but he has made this a more competent unit — and when you mix that with McDermott’s ability to scheme away passing production, this has made a difference.
Now, we’re still talking about “Burrow to Chase” here, which keeps him in the mix for me. But we should be aware of the challenges the matchup presents.
Michael Wilson :: if no MHJ.
Colts :: Covered in Build-Around
WR 1B ::
Emeka Egbuka :: The production hasn’t been there, but the usage has been, with Mayfield’s struggles dragging down the production. With a healthier offensive line, Bucky Irving back on the field, and a matchup against the Saints, passing volume may not play in our favor here, either — but Egbuka is at least worth keeping in consideration.
Jakobi Meyers :: Covered in Jags Block; he’s on the border of 1B/1A for me — but I prefer him in the block over playing him as a one-off.
Christian Watson :: He’s on the border of 1B/2, mostly because it’s hard to figure how this game plays out. But within the runout for this game is the Bears doing well on offense, and the Packers getting aggressive. If that happens, we would have opportunities for a spiked week from Watson.
>>
WR2 ::
Troy Franklin :: This is a bet on his role bouncing back, in a good spot, after Pat Bryant stole some snaps and targets last week. We’re still relying on a low-efficiency connection with Nix for this to hit (in addition to some newly-added usage guesswork), but there is enough price-considered ceiling to justify the gamble.
Terry McLaurin :: If he could get there against Denver, he can get there against Minnesota. He’s being targeted on over 40% of his routes, so they clearly want to keep him involved. I don’t think I’ll get here on tighter builds, but I do think he’s in play.
Jordan Addison :: If you want to bet on McCarthy finally putting things together, it probably makes sense to bet on the cheaper guy (Addison) who has the same ceiling as the more expensive guy (Jefferson) — though I’m fine with Jefferson through this angle as well. This is another one that makes the most sense, to me, in large-field play, but you could justify taking a swing on tighter builds.
TE1 ::
Tyler Warren :: Colts Build-Around
Dalton Kincaid :: Covered in Cook // Kincaid Block
Kyle Pitts :: (Yuck) With Cousins at quarterback and no Drake London, the targets are there, and Seattle filters targets to the position.
Brenton Strange :: Jags Block; underpriced for his role, and has a matchup boost.
TE2 ::
Brock Bowers :: I have a hard time seeing the Broncos let Bowers run free — but tight end is the clearest path to production vs Denver, so you can keep Bowers in mind. I prefer him in large-field play, or on rosters that are otherwise very high-confidence.
Mark Andrews :: It’s hard to see the Ravens lighting up the scoreboard here, and Andrews is so touchdown-heavy that I can’t quite view him as a TE1. But the matchup is good, and the ceiling is there.
Juwan Johnson :: We have a deep tight end pool this week, which probably leaves me off Juwan in a non-optimal matchup; but I won’t argue against going back here again, with his strong target volume in what’s sure to be a high-volume passing attack.
DST ::
Broncos — The Raiders are bottom two in sacks taken. The Broncos are top two in sacks. What a setup!
Browns — The Titans are bottom two in sacks taken. The Browns are top two in sacks. What a setup!
With all of this, it’s Wednesday. Some players will shift Grid slots for me. Some players will probably move off this list. Some players will probably be added. But on a slate that’s making sense to me, with extra time available on my end, this is what I’m seeing so far.
I think RJ Harvey ultimately has to be in the pool as well.
It hasn’t been pretty, and the touch volume isn’t all that great, but with the touchdown equity and a game where the Broncos should do well, he has to be considered.
If you want more than one high-priced guy on a roster this week, it may also be one of those types of weeks where you have to take one cheaper swing.
I just built a roster with Perine as my RB2. (Didn’t love it — just making note of what I’ve tried, in order to make things work.)
I also just built a JSN // Cook roster (or Puka // Cook, allowing a move from Alex Pierce up to Michael Pittman), but in order to not be taking wild swings (i.e., in order for me to build from the typical areas I build from on the pool, above), I had to use Harvey at RB2.
I wouldn’t mind some value opening this week. But if it doesn’t, tough decisions will have to be made between “double pay-up with at least one uncomfortable play on the roster,” or “single pay-up and hope you’re grabbing enough certainty and ceiling.”
Breece Hall is another one who might make his way onto my list.
I’m poking around on some things and basically confirming that, yeah, my relatively narrow list may not become much broader.
I’m not sure I’m missing much at quarterback.
I’m honestly not missing much at running back (Jacobs is popping in projections and will likely be popular; but to me, Cook and Achane are head and shoulders above the other running back options — and it’s tough to pay up for both, which means I need to at least consider other backs and realize I may not absolutely love what I’m getting).
Projections and GPP Value rankings across the industry back up my list // sentiments at wide receiver.
And value is thin — which, again, means that in order to pull a double pay-up, we’ll probably be uncomfortable in at least one spot on our roster; and even if we’re not looking to pull a double pay-up, we’ll probably be uncomfortable somewhere.
one running back who looks likely to go a bit overlooked is Bucky Irving.
Since taking on a larger share of the backfield work in Week 10 last year (a 13-game sample), he has scored 16+ DK points 10 times, and more importantly, he has scored 26+ four times.
He has averaged 14.6 pre-touchdown points per game across this stretch (2.09x — behind only Puka among wideouts and running backs on the list above), and if we take out the weird game against Las Vegas in this stretch where he scored only 2.8, that number climbs to 15.6 (2.23x — better than all other running backs and wide receivers on the list above, and better than all other players priced over $4.3k).
Touch counts in these games last year :: 16 // 18 // 28 // 5 (Las Vegas) // 17 // 19 // 24 // 21.
Touch counts in these games this year :: 18 // 23 // 29 // 20 // 19.
The Bucs’ rushing offense hasn’t been the same without Liam Coen, but the role and touch expectations are the same this year as they were last year — and he’s posting a still-elite 14.8 pre-touchdown points per game on the season (2.12x).
Best of all, he’s not really popping in projections. New Orleans faces the second highest opponent rush play rate in the NFL, and only four teams have allowed more RB rushing yards.
These underlying data points would technically slot him into the exact same price-considered category as James Cook and De’Von Achane (Light Blue Chip). Cook’s matchup is in a league of its own, of course; but “2025 Bucky” and “last 13 games Bucky” has even better price-considered “pre-touchdown” numbers than “Achane without Tyreek.” Achane (seven touchdowns in seven games — on an offense where he’s the main outlet for touchdowns) carries more ceiling than Bucky (eight touchdowns in this 13-game stretch). But if you have to save some salary to make something work, Bucky might make a ton of sense.
I never like talking down a player, because weird things happen. Players hit. I prefer to focus on the plays I like, rather than the plays I don’t. But I do just want to mention :: early indications are that Josh Jacobs (popping in projections across the space) will be popular this week. So I just want to shout out: he has cracked 21 DK points twice this year :: against Cincinnati, and against early-season Dallas.
I cannot say what will happen in the small sample size of one slate. But if we played out this slate a hundred times, “Not playing high-owned Jacobs” would be an edge.
If we have to save salary at wide receiver, Burden might be the best option. He’s averaging 2.0x his salary in pre-touchdown points per game across his last four (of course, he hasn’t scored, so he’s also averaging 2.0x his salary overall in this stretch), and he has a skill set that can lead to spiked weeks. Basically, he’s not far behind the cheap tight ends who are attractive in this range, in terms of “scoring expectations without a touchdown” — and because he can “do it all” on one touch, he does have runouts to ceiling.
If Matthew Golden misses again and Jayden Reed remains out, Dontayvion Wicks, of course, is also in play down here.
