Afternoon-only 13.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 13 Overview

This week’s three game slate has some interesting dynamics to dig into. Hopefully everyone enjoyed the Thanksgiving slate and realizes how awesome these smaller slates can be!! While this slate doesn’t give us the fun “Late Swap” opportunities and being able to know where rosters stand while we can still make decisions, there are a ton of fun angles to play with on these smaller slates. Some things that stand out this week:

• There are only 6 “Flex” players priced above $6,000 on Draftkings: JSN, Justin Jefferson, James Cook III, Ashton Jeanty, Ladd McConkey, and Jaylen Warren. If you DON’T play one of the top QB’s (Herbert or Allen), you can fairly comfortably fit four of those six players on a roster, with some paths to playing five of them. If you play one of the expensive QB’s, you are probably sacrificing one of those “studs”. Most rosters will have three players from this group, with some rosters having four. Finding ways to fit five of them on a roster or limiting yourself to two or less is a good way to create a unique roster construction without having to chase thin plays.
• Two games have clear blowout potential (MIN/SEA and LV/LAC), with the teams that are heavy favorites having expensive defenses and the teams that are big underdogs having super cheap QBs with clear stacking partners. Garbage time could be the MVP on this slate.
• The top QB options (Herbert and Allen) are very hard to know who to stack them with.
• The best running back matchup is the Steelers at home against Buffalo, but their backfield uncertainty is likely to result in their running backs having lower ownership than an on-paper matchup like this would usually warrant.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section: