Afternoon-only 8.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Afternoon Only Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

• Finding An Edge
  • The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry. Most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

• Ownership Strategy:
  • Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates”, just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
  • This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are less alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
  • This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
  • Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 8 Overview::

Only a three game slate this week, and the nature of the games makes it a very fun one!! Everyone expects the Titans to get rolled by the Colts, but their offense showed some signs of life last week and are making a youth movement at wide receiver. The Colts gave up a ton of second half production to the Chargers last week with a depleted secondary. The Titans could potentially open things up for the rest of your rosters as well because their salaries are so low. The TB/NO game has value on the Tampa side and Bucs games have been shooting out in recent weeks because of their lack of rushing efficiency and their defense’s pass funnel tendencies. Meanwhile, the DAL/DEN game could be a highly explosive game environment thanks to the elite efficiency of the Cowboys offense and the historic weakness of their defense.

QB Strategy::