Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.
Week 14 has four games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
The game of the week, this one isn’t going to sneak up on anyone. The total is well above the field, but it’s not an especially easy game to target for DFS. James Cook looks like a premier play, but after him, the Bills side is messy. Josh Allen costs a pretty penny, and while he’s certainly playable, none of his stacking partners inspire much confidence. If Dalton Kincaid misses another game, Dawson Knox will be a screaming value, but he’ll still likely need to fall into the end zone to matter. If Kincaid plays, it’s tough to want either guy, but I’d probably lean towards using Kincaid. Kahlil Shakir will probably have an acceptable game, but it’s tough to see him producing a must-have score even if this game produces a ton of points. The Bengals passing game is simple. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are always playable as a stack, but they cost a lot, and this matchup favors running the ball. Chase Brown is still affordable enough to play, but Samaje Perine put a real dent in his playing time and soaked up 14 carries last week. I’m not off Brown, but it’s tough to get excited about him even with the return of Burrow. Despite the high total, it’s difficult to play full game stacks, and I’ll probably end up using a mini correlation of Cook + Chase or Higgins on my main roster. This game is also expected to see snow, but as of this writing, the winds appear low. Snow on its own isn’t enough to lower our expectations (certain retired pocket passers, notably Tom Brady, have said they preferred light snow because it slowed down the pass rush). The total hasn’t reacted either, still sitting around 53.
This game offers a ton of stacking potential since both passing games are cheap. If you want to afford the top RBs, you must save somewhere, and it’s difficult to save enough without using a cheap stack. Trevor Lawrence is affordable and can be used with Brian Thomas, Jakobi Meyers, or Brenton Strange. This game has a healthy total, and both teams are likely to try to win through the air. It feels like a game that could play out as a low scoring, playoff style dud between two teams that desperately need to win, or a game that could break the slate with several cheap passing game pieces that pay off their salary. The risk here is that the Jaguars have been heavily favoring the run since their bye. That could change in a game where they might need to keep up, as opposing offenses have treated the Jaguars defense as a pass funnel. The Jags have faced the highest PROE, and if the Colts score, the Jags could open up their offense. My favorite way to play this game is T-Law + Meyers + Strange + Pittman or Pierce. A stack from this game is likely to make my main team.
The Cardinals have been throwing at a silly rate since Jacoby Brissett took over at QB. They have the highest PROE in the league since he became the starter, and it’s not close. Trey McBride has seen his price rise to a level that is hard to justify, but he clearly has the highest raw points projection at TE. Michael Wilson will once again be a screaming value and one of the slate’s most popular players. It’s a tough matchup against the Rams defense, but Wilson has been a target hog in games without Harrison, and the Cardinals are doing nothing but throwing. The Rams are also tricky to utilize with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams priced near the top of the slate. I’d rather pay for Puka between the two, and it’s difficult to afford a Rams double stack. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are splitting work, and if their efficiency ever drops, they’re both going to be bricks. This game is likely to produce points, but it’s tough to target in DFS. My favorite way to stack this game is Brissett + Wilson + Puka
This game has the potential to go overlooked, but like the Ind/Jax game, it offers cheap stacks that allow for expensive RBs. J.J. McCarthy does not look good, but he has flashed, and the Commanders defense has been generous. McCarthy is stackable with Justin Jefferson on the cheap, and it doesn’t cost much to add Jordan Addison or T.J. Hockenson. The Commanders are also all values with Jayden Daniels set to return from a gruesome left elbow dislocation. Terry McLaurin looked all the way back last week, and all of a sudden, the Commanders passing attack is dangerous. Daniels can be paired with F-1, Deebo, Samuel, or Zach Ertz. My two favorite ways to play this game are McCarthy + Jefferson + Addison + Hockenson + F1, or Daniels + F1+ Deebo + Ertz + Jefferson. I’ll overstack this game from both sides because I see it taking off, or totally disappointing, depending on how the QBs play.
