Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the fifth slate.
Week 8 has five games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
You won’t see this game ranked as the best game environment in many places, but I like it for DFS. All the Bengals pieces are too cheap for how the offense looked with Joe Flacco against a Jets secondary that has been torched and is going to be without Sauce Gardner, who has been their one component player in the secondary. Ja’Marr Chase is in a great spot and is currently projected to be the slate’s highest owned player, but curiously, Flacco and Tee Higgins are both expected to garner sub 10% ownership. Josh Reynolds also appears to be totally overlooked, with under 5% projected ownership. Reynolds saw nine targets last week, and if Tyrod Taylor starts (I think he will), the Jets will probably throw more than we’ve seen from them with Fields. With so many builds using Chase as a solo play and moving on from this game, Flacco + Higgins + Reynolds stacks are going to be the leverage play of the week. That same stack + Chase is also going to be relatively unowned. I’m currently favoring rosters that stack this game for my main team, and that’s why I must rank it as my top game environment of the week.
(EDITOR’S NOTE: LAMAR JACKSON HAS BEEN RULED OUT)
The return of Lamar Jackson changes the dynamic of this game. The entire Ravens offense has been priced down due to recent performances, and the return of Jackson makes Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers screaming values. The Ravens are the best 1-5 team in NFL history, and they know that they must go on a run to get back into playoff contention. The Bears are poor on defense and have been playing well on offense, creating a perfect atmosphere for a shootout. Rome Odunze is coming off two duds, but that’s what has kept his price in check. Ravens stacks with Odunze as a bring back or Bears stacks with Flowers as a bring back are firmly in play. I’m currently leaning into a Jackson + Henry + Flowers + Odunze stack as the start of one of my tighter builds. The idea being that the field won’t want to use Jackson + Henry together, but that they are both unpriced, and you could capture all the Ravens touchdowns in a shootout.
