Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the fifth slate.
Week 5 has six games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
This is my favorite game environment of the week. Dallas has been smashed (32nd in DVOA) through the air, and the Jets (30th in DVOA) haven’t been much better. Justin Fields ($5,600) continues to be priced like we are playing real football instead of fantasy football. Fields is not a good real-life QB, but he scored 28 & 30 DK points in the two games he’s finished. He hasn’t looked awful as a passer, throwing for over 200 yards and completing over 70% of his passes in both of his full games. Of course, it’s the 129 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns that move the needle for him, but that has always been Field’s game. I’m going to play Fields on my main lineup this week and pair him with either Breece Hall ($5,600), Garrett Wilson ($6,100), or Mason Taylor ($2,800), all of whom are too cheap and are benefiting from the Primetime game pricing discount. The Cowboys are just as easy to stack. Dak Prescott ($6,000), Javonte Williams ($6,200), George Pickens ($6,600), and Jake Ferguson ($4,800) can be stacked in any combination. I’m currently looking at Fields + Wilson + Hall + Ferguson as the start of my main build. All the primary offensive pieces on both sides are in play.
It’s Week 5, Daniel Jones ($5,800) is the Colts QB, and they have a top five team total on the week. Things are just as we all envisioned at the start of the season. Michael Pittman ($5,100) has been a solid WR1 and is underpriced for his role. He isn’t likely to break the slate, but he has a strong chance of posting a good price considered score (assuming his hammy isn’t a big deal). Jonathan Taylor ($8,000) is the most expensive player on the slate. He barely leaves the field and is playing on a home favorite. He can be used in any lineup. Why hasn’t Tyler Warren ($4,700) seen a price increase? He’s been priced between $4,400 and $4,700 all year despite significantly outperforming his start of the year expectations. I’m going to keep using him until he’s more expensive. I prefer the Colts side, but Jakobi Meyers ($5,600) continues to be a value relative to his expected target volume. I’m going to use Colts players throughout my lineups, with one of my tighter builds dedicated to stacking this game.
