Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Chaos. Pure chaos. That is the macro slate view. That is simplifying things quite a bit, but that really is the gist of this slate. We have less certainty than we’ve had on any other slate this season. Projection systems are going haywire trying to keep up with the flood of news that has come in the previous two days, and the field is expressing significant certainty in places where it simply doesn’t exist. Jaydon Blue. Really, y’all? Jaydon freaking Blue is going to be on almost 30% of rosters in play this week? Yikes.
The biggest edge on this slate is going to be focusing on the “what you win when you’re right” equation. Which is to say, focusing your efforts on players or situations that carry elite ceiling through all the uncertainty is going to paramount to our success this week. More on this below.
Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. This one makes all the sense in the world. Bijan has returned 29.8 DK points or more in three straight and five of his last seven appearances, and gets a Saints opponent playing without their top skill position player. That makes it likelier the Saints struggle to sustain drives, boosting the potential play volume for the Falcons in the process.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. I honestly don’t even think Blue leads the team in carries, which I expect might land on practice squad player Israel Abanikanda’s shoulders this week. The field is expressing way more certainty on Blue than is actually present.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. A bet on Gibbs is a bet on the Lions in the early January weather in Chicago on the road. I’m not saying that is a foolish bet, simply that Gibbs’ range of outcomes is likely wider than the field is currently giving credit for this week.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. St. Brown is banged up, but does carry one of the highest pure ceilings on the slate. Similar to Gibbs, a bet on Amon-Ra is a bet on the Lions on the road in the Chicago weather, but the ceiling is pure.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Johnson is probably one of the more sure-thing bets to hit 15 DK points this week. That said, I’m not so sure he carries an elevated raw ceiling in the absence of Chris Olave. Basically, it is more likely we see the Saints completely fail than it is we see Johnson put up 25-30 DK points.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Yup, Ja’Marr Chase carries one of the highest raw ceilings of any player any time he takes the field. That said, the matchup is slightly troublesome and we get both a salary and ownership discount on the player with the better underlying metrics against the matchup we expect in Tee Higgins.
