Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
We have a slate with very little certainty outside of the top expected game environment, the chalkiest piece of the season to not be a fill-in running back, and a running back position with very little certainty – all balled up into a nine-game slate. The field is going to struggle this week, no doubt about it. So, let’s simplify things, shall we? Target game environments, release the innate desire to feel comfortable, and build for first place. If it helps, lower your entry fees so you’re not overextending your bankroll and build to ship GPPs. Variance is going to be off the charts on this slate. Why not lean into it instead of locking Ashton Jeanty (just an example)?
Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jeanty has six games of single-digit output and three games over 20 DK points this season. He is running behind one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines in the league on a team implied for under 20 points. That profile would be nowhere near the ownership he is projected for if not for this wonky slate with very little certainty. The thing is, Jeanty himself carries very little certainty! His range of outcomes is about as wide as they come for a borderline workhorse running back. And yet, he is projected to be the chalkiest player we’ve had all season outside of fill-in running backs stepping into featured roles.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Chase carries the highest raw floor and ceiling combination on the slate, in a game environment with the second highest game total of the season, between two teams ranked in the bottom three in both total defense and scoring defense. Yeah, this one checks out.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Meyers is “fine” in a vacuum. His underlying metrics with the Jaguars are “solid yet unspectacular,” the matchup is good, and the team total is elite. He also wouldn’t be this heavily owned on a normal slate, however.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. JSN has shown us all season what he can do on limited volume, so you’ll get no pushback from me on this one.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jonathan Taylor has not put up more than 16.9 DK points in any of the team’s seven losses this season. So, what is the field telling us with this ownership – that they expect the Colts to upset the Jaguars, or that they are uncomfortable with uncertainty this week? I believe it to be the latter.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Look, any min-priced tight end stepping into a potentially featured role warrants consideration, particularly one as talented as Mayer. That said, this is still a tight end on a bottom-feeder offense with a low team total. Did we not learn anything this offseason when we took two players from this team in the first two rounds of best ball drafts?
