Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
What is that slate telling us? That is a question I talked a lot about this season, but we never really framed it that way here. I tackled this question in the Oracle, where I wrote:
“This slate feels like DraftKings is daring us to pay up at running back and hit the mid-range wide receivers hard. All of the backs feel priced up, even the “value” options. Within the context of this slate, with so many top tier options at the position, raw points are likely to matter a bit more than on a “standard slate” at running back, making players like Audric Estime, Aaron Jones, Michael Carter, and Kenneth Gainwell borderline unusable. That is part of the theoretical reasoning that has me giving a nice, hard look at Omarion Hampton, who would carry 30+ point upside against the Cowboys if he sees his snap rate increase (it hasn’t yet since returning from injury).”
Wide receivers like Justin Jefferson, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, and Jameson Williams all feel materially underpriced relative to their respective ceilings on this slate. This pricing dynamic should lead to a clear “chalk build,” giving us a clear blueprint for generating leverage (again, is the answer Omarion Hampton?).”
Beyond that, we have to ask ourselves where the field is getting its value, which appears to primarily be coming through tight end and quarterback. There is no reason Aaron Rodgers should be garnering so much ownership here. The dude hasn’t thrown for more than 284 yards this season and has just two games with more than two total touchdowns. Harold Fannin is the chalk at tight end and is in one of the worst individual matchups on the slate. This slate then becomes one of the most theoretical slates of the season, and one I’m stoked to tackle!
Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jahmyr Gibbs in the last four Detroit victories: 37.0 DK points, 58.4 DK points, 41.2 DK points, and 39.8 DK points. The Lions are 7.0-point favorites at home this week. Legit, enough said.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Sun God requires elite volume and touchdown variance working in his favor to return a score you could not win without, held back by an 8.7 aDOT and only seven end zone targets. Can that happen here? Sure. Is it likeliest to happen? Hell no. Which is to say, St. Brown carries elite floor and projection but is far less likely than his ownership expectation indicates to put up a score you could not win without this week.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. If you’re playing Metcalf, do yourself a favor and don’t look at his splits against man coverage this season, which is important due to the defensive tendencies from the Lions. Okay, I’ll spoil it. Metcalf has a modest 0.19 TPRR, 1.53 YPRR, and 0.39 FP/RR against man with Aaron Rodgers this season, while generating one of the worst separation scores in the league in that split. I get it, the Lions are banged up in the secondary, but Metcalf is far from a natural fit with Rodgers (I talked about that this offseason for Best Ball purposes). Metcalf has only two games all season over 100 yards. Can that happen here? Sure. Is it going to occur at a rate similar to his ownership? Hell no. Which is to say, his ceiling looks great on paper, but the matchup and, thusly, his floor leave a lot to be desired here.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Bijan has put up 30 DK points or more five times this season, three of which have come in his last five games. The commonality in those three games was that he saw 28 or more opportunities each time. Digging deeper, the Falcons have played in five one-score games since Week 8, and Robinson saw an 85% snap rate or higher in all five of those games. He played 67% of the offensive snaps or fewer in the three games that were blowouts in either direction in that same span. The Falcons are currently 3.0-point road favorites over the Cardinals, making it likelier we see Robinson in a more robust role this week, adding to both his floor and ceiling. The matchup is pristine. I see no problem here.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jamo has scored in five of seven games since the team’s Week 8 bye, going over 100 yards in three of those games. One of those came in the game St. Brown departed after just four offensive snaps. Remove that game, and we could say that Williams has gone over 100 yards in two of six games since their bye. Working in his favor this week are the absences of Nick Herbig and T.J. Watt, who rank first and second on the Steelers in both pressure rate and sacks this season. We know that to be massive for Goff due to his splits when pressured versus when kept clean. It works out to a net positive for Williams, although the Steelers have been nails against perimeter receivers over the past six weeks.
