Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This is one of the more dynamic and interesting slates I can remember. First off, there aren’t any clear game environments to attack on a slate with no game above a 45.5 game total. The Thanksgiving slate leaves us with only 10 games on the main slate, and we’re left without many of the top options at quarterback. This slate also lacks much directional certainty. Those aspects combine to leave us with a slate in which the field is highly likely to default to projections and away from team and game environment bets. That immediately makes me most interested in finding the spots likeliest to return bulk production – more on this below!
Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Achane is currently projected to carry the most ownership we have seen on a skill position player that wasn’t a fill-in running back this season. To be fair, he is one of the better on-paper plays on the slate, albeit one that carries a wider range of outcomes than we would typically see for someone carrying this much ownership. His median is fantastic, but his paths to true ceiling are likely thinner than the field is being real with.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Hall derives so much of his fantasy value from explosives, and the Falcons have done a solid job of limiting those plays this season. We’ve seen time and time again how low Hall’s floor is when he isn’t hitting for those explosives.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I have a rule (that I just made up for this write-up), which is to never play a Seattle back at ownership. Walker has more games of single-digit fantasy output (six) than he does double-digit (five), with only three games all season north of a modest 13.1 DK points. He has seen only 36.4% of his team’s carries inside the five, although that number jumps to 62.5% in the previous calendar month. Walker derives significant value from his explosive run rate, yet the Vikings have held opponents to bottom-10 rates of explosives on the ground.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Always JSN. Always.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jaylen Waddle is how much this week? $6,800 is a steep price to pay for a player that has one game all season north of 20.9 DK points, on an offense that ranks dead last in the league in plays per game.
