Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
From a top-down view, this is a 10-game slate with one game carrying the highest game total of the season, only one other game with a game total north of 47.0, two spots where wind could become a factor, and four games with one team favored by a touchdown or more. But, when we start digging deeper into expected field behavior, we find a clear path of expected salary allocation that doesn’t take a ton to move away from. There are two spots where I think the field has it right regarding the chalk and then some spots where I think they are getting it completely wrong. We’ll go over how I’m seeing this slate from a theoretical framework below, and where I see the best places to deviate. This is a really fun slate, and I challenge you to think for yourself on this one, because that appears to be the likeliest path to success. Let’s dive in, shall we?
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Rice gets the “soft pricing in his first game of the season” treatment on DraftKings this week, which makes him the most underpriced option on the slate relative to his salary versus range of outcomes. That does not mean he is guaranteed to return an elite GPP score, but he would be one of, if not the, most +EV bet to make if we played out this slate 100 times.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I was on Judkins early in the week, even building him into my DFS Labs roster on Tuesday. At that time, I projected Judkins to carry some of the highest ownership on the slate. Then I saw JM raving about him later in the week. Then I saw his ownership in manageable territory. Then I saw everyone else talking about him. Then his ownership jumped to one of the largest on the slate. In situations like this, I side with simply playing the best on-paper plays, just as I intend to do with Rice. There are so many ways to differentiate on this slate that I honestly expect to be massively overweight Judkins this week.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I’m not so sure about this one. The Commanders have been an extremely stout run defense until they got gashed by D’Andre Swift, of all people, on Monday night in Week 5. Williams has a low 4.3% explosive run rate but a low 37.0% stuff rate, meaning he is consistently churning out positive yardage while rarely getting into the second level. That makes him a pretty poor bet to hit the 100-yard bonus, meaning he likely requires multiple scores and an elite receiving role to return a solid GPP score at his salary. He has seen three or fewer targets in half of his games this season (eight, seven, and five in the other three), and has one game all year of a 4x multiplier on his Week 7 salary. I’ve got a nifty pivot that I’ll highlight below if you’re targeting this sub-7k range at running back.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. This one makes more sense. Lamb has consistently produced when both he and Dak Prescott are on the field, and he now gets an opponent that is a true pass funnel and slot funnel, with a salary that has fallen to $7,500 after missing the past three games. It’s always scary playing a wide receiver fresh off a high-ankle sprain, but I’m willing to take that gamble given the pedigree and matchup.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I think I summed this one up succinctly enough in the DFS+ Interpretation of this game. “You’ll notice I didn’t mention Breece Hall in that exploration, who stands as one of the worst on-paper plays versus ownership stances of the season, to me. I’m not sure why we are jumping out of our seats to play a running back averaging 13.4 XFP/G without Braelon Allen against an opponent that has been a top five run defense the previous month of play. For comparison, 13.4 XFP/G would rank 21st in the league over the full season, behind D’Andre Swift (Hall averages 12.9 XFP/G this season, 22nd in the league). Full fade for me.”
