Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Like last week, this slate has very little certainty. And yet, there are 10 players expected to be on 20% or more of rosters in play this weekend. Not only that, but the certainty we do have is more fragile than a typical slate. We also have a situation where the field appears to be taking binary stances on individual players as opposed to focusing on team stacks or game environments, as evidenced by the completely spread-out nature of the quarterback ownership, and how that ownership compares to the composite skill position ownership of the teams on the slate.
Now take all of that within the bigger context of the slate, which sees the first real slate of the season where pricing is tight, no true game environment that stands out above the others, and no true game environment we can entirely write off. The slate is wide open. Those two pieces work together to create a slate in which a solid chunk of the field will be playing with suboptimal tendencies, taking on more variance than is required. As such, I’ll be looking for ways to manage variance away from field tendencies as the primary means of generating leverage on the Week 6 main slate.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Puka ranks first in XFP/G at the wide receiver position while seeing double-digit targets in four of five games and going over 100 yards in three of five games. That said, he has exactly zero end zone targets (Davante Adams has nine) and remains highly unlikely to score multiple touchdowns, leaving his true ceiling somewhat lacking when compared to his salary. Slightly more fragile than the field likely realizes here, although he is the top projected median on the slate (I’ll be playing him). It is at least worth noting that Davante Adams ranks third in the league in XFP/G while being targeted nine times in the end zone this season.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. CMC leads the league in XFP/G at the running back position while seeing seven or more targets in every game this season, with nine or more in four of five. He is playing a Buccaneers team that is going to bring the blitz (fourth-ranked 34.4%) and sees a ridiculous 0.42 TPRR when the 49ers are blitzed this season. His biggest blemishes are zero team rushing scores and 3.1 yards per carry or fewer in four of five games this season. The Buccaneers are also a clear pass-funnel matchup. More fragile than the field likely realizes here.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. If you read the write-up of this Cowboys game earlier this week, or if you tuned in to Searching for Ceiling on Friday, you likely heard me bring out a dope stat pull – Javonte Williams is currently averaging more yards per carry than any running back in Cowboys history, dating back to 1960. He is also averaging 27.45 DK points per game in the Cowboys two wins this season (24.63 per game if you include their tie against the Packers) and are favored by three points in the game with the highest game total this week. Just for comparison’s sake, really quick (don’t hate me), the 24.63 DK points per game that Williams averages in three wins or ties this season is more than CMC has scored in three of five games. Little food for thought.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Olave ranks second in XFP/G (19.4) but has finished below that mark in every single game this season. He has finished between 54 and 59 yards in all four games in which he has seen double-digit targets this season. Sometimes, it is best to look beyond a single metric to define solid on-paper fantasy plays. FRAGILE.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Buccaneers have struggled to run the football this season, with the trio of Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, and Sean Tucker averaging just 3.49 yards per carry. No back on the team has an explosive run rate higher than 2.8%. White is coming off an 18-opportunity game where he scored twice, with the backfield now accounting for five total touchdowns through five games. Did someone say fragile?
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jake Ferguson has scored more points than McBride’s top performance this season in four of five games. What are we doing here?
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. We now have a three-year sample of Kyren Williams with a well below average explosive run rate in this Los Angeles offense. That means he remains highly unlikely to pierce the 100-yard threshold due to the heavy PROE values of the Rams this year, meaning he likely requires elite pass volume or three or more touchdowns to return a GPP score you could not make up elsewhere. He saw 10 targets and caught two touchdowns to do that last week. Are we betting on that happening again at high ownership? But, Hilow, he’s leverage against Puka Nacua. I would just call him a poor on-paper play, to be honest. If the Rams are trouncing the Ravens, we’re probably just seeing more Blake Corum. If the Ravens are keeping pace, we’re probably just seeing more Puka Nacua (the matchup is better for him). Frah-geel-eh.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Panthers have remained one of the more run-heavy teams in the league, regardless of game script this season, challenged only by the Browns for that honor. Considering the pace-up nature of this matchup between two teams in the top seven in pace of play, and considering the continued absence of Chuba Hubbard, it’s safe to pencil Dowdle in for another 18-22 opportunities as a floor. The bigger problem for me is the clear pass-funnel matchup against a zone-heavy defense, knowing Bryce Young has gone full pumpkin against zone this season, which lowers the chances of sustained drives, which lowers the chances of touchdowns for Dowdle. I have my doubts about this Panthers team this week, in all honesty.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jacobs is averaging 3.31 yards per carry with a putrid 3.8% explosive run rate and larger than perception 51.3% stuff rate this season. His saving grace is that he has an outside shot at a three-touchdown game here. That hefty red zone role has kept his XFP/G at third in the league (18.7). Extremely fragile.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. On a per-target basis, JSN is the only receiver in the league that rivals Puka Nacua. The problem is the Seahawks are averaging the second fewest pass attempts per game this year (27.4), meaning he all but requires the game reaching “oh shit” phase to put up a score you could not win without at his increasing salary. Go re-read my write-up of this game and see how excited I was about this game environment taking off (spoiler: I wasn’t). He’s a great bet to get you a 3x multiplier, but extremely fragile for more.
