Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Allow me to set the stage for the Week 5 main slate. There are only 10 games making it the smallest slate of the season as bye weeks are here and there is an international game in London. There are four games with a game total of 47.0 or higher: Raiders @ Colts (seven-point spread), Cowboys @ Jets (two-point spread), Commanders @ Chargers (three-point spread), and Lions @ Bengals (10.5-point spread). Running back injuries are running rampant throughout the league, while there aren’t any true “pay up for elite quarterback” options on the slate with no Josh Allen, no Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels fresh off a two-game absence without his primary option through the air (Terry McLaurin), and Jalen Hurts in a broken offense with a middling game total (43.5).
Now for the punch line. Through all that uncertainty and variance, this slate is the chalkiest slate of the season. There are currently nine to 12 players expected to garner 20%+ ownership, depending on where you look. That is absolutely bonkers to me. Let’s make a quick comparison to highlight what I mean here. There were three players expected to be on more than 20% of rosters last week – Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua, and Jakobi Meyers (lolz). Both CMC and Nacua were expected to garner more than 30% ownership. The one player currently projecting for more than 30% ownership on the Week 5 main slate is De’Von Achane, who goes down as a solid on-paper play this week. But does his role come anywhere close to those of CMC and Puka? Hell no. CMC currently averages over 11 XFP/G more than Achane. Chew on that for a minute. CMC’s median projection last week was about five points higher than Achane’s this week. Achane doesn’t even carry the highest median projection at the position on this slate! Achane ranks third at the position in median projection versus salary (value) on this slate! The list goes on (again, simply for the sake of comparison to ground our thoughts this week).
That means we have a wide-open slate, with very little certainty, and absurd levels of “thinner than perception” chalk. It is not going to take much to generate meaningful leverage on a slate like that!
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
A quick disclaimer: we’ll use Xandamere’s ownership projections for this discussion this week, which weight projections from around the industry a bit better than anywhere else, from my experience. There are currently nine players expected to garner more than 20% ownership in his last run.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Achane is objectively a top on-paper play on this slate at the running back position. The above discussion on the state of the slate was not meant to take away from Achane as he is compared to the other plays in Week 5, simply that this slate is far different than the one we had last week. The chalk is much more fragile than it has been recently.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Taylor takes the trophy for top median projection at the running back position in Week 5. Like Achane, he is more fragile than the top median projections from other slates this season.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. JSN’s underlying metrics have predictably regressed after his torrid start, now accounting for a 33.0% target share, 0.37 TPRR, and still-robust 4.32 YPRR. Compare those values to the 36.5% target share, 0.43 TPRR, and 4.37 YPRR values of Puka Nacua, and he’s not far off. The main difference that separates the two (and keeps JSN from truly elite company) is the difference in pass volume from each of their offenses. The Rams are averaging 36.8 pass attempts per game (seventh in the league) while the Seahawks are averaging just 25.8 pass attempts per game (31st in the league). That massive difference in team volume requires the game environment to cooperate for JSN, whereas Nacua can get there in a wider array of outcomes. Again, more fragility.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Hall is the primary beneficiary of “an injury from a team playing on Monday in the previous week” on this slate, meaning he is expected to step into an increased role without seeing his price adjusted to account for it. His $5,600 DK salary is far too low for the matchup, expected role, team total, and expected game environment. Hall currently stands as the chalk I plan on eating the most of in Week 5.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Hampton saw every running back carry in the team’s Week 4 loss to the Giants and returned a solid 128-1 line on the ground in addition to 5-37 through the air. That said, he still plays for the team ranked first in PROE and is playing a Commanders team holding opposing backs to 3.6 yard per carry. He did his damage a week ago on 12 carries, and his offensive line has been gutted by injuries. Fragile.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The Cardinals are averaging 20.5 points per game (23rd) and are averaging 32.5 pass attempts per game (15th). Kyler Murray attempted 29 and 25 passes in the team’s two wins this season, and the Cardinals are currently 7.5-point favorites at home against the Titans. McBride is as good a bet as any tight end on the slate to see 6-8 targets, but he’s also highly unlikely to hit double-digit looks in the expected game environment and appears to be valued by the field primarily as a one-off (instead of being stacked with Kyler). Fragile.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. The matchup is atrocious against a Seahawks defense holding opponents to 3.6 yards per carry, but White brings enough through the air to give him multiple paths to paying off his low $4,700 DK salary. The Buccaneers are also missing multiple offensive linemen in Week 5. The play doesn’t jump off the page as well as the field seems to think here. Fragile.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Gibbs has one game this season with more than 19 opportunities while continuing to share backfield duties with David Montgomery, despite seeing his snap rate tick up slightly compared to 2024. Even so, the upside is clearly evident against a Bengals team allowing 32.5 DK points per game to opposing running backs this season (second most to only the Ravens). I prefer Gibbs in team stacks or game stacks this week.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Wilson has scored 20.2 DK points or more in three of four games while seeing eight or more targets in every game this season, making him a solid bet to reach a 3x salary multiplier on his moderate $6,100 Week 5 salary. Nobody is going to want to hear this, but the Jets are quietly averaging more points per game than the Cardinals, Chargers, 49ers, and Dolphins, to name a few teams. His median projection is currently tied for fourth at the position, while he is priced as only the ninth-most expensive wide receiver on the slate, all in a game against a Cowboys team allowing the most pass yards per game in 2025. It feels gross to say, but the two Jets chalk pieces are amongst the best on-paper plays on the slate.
