JM’s Journal 8.25
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 22 THOUGHTS ::
EARLY WEEK 8 ANGLES ::
JOSH ALLEN // PANTHERS BRING-BACK ::
First thought: if you play josh allen, you are required to play a piece from the panthers (tmac being the best bet). the only way allen is unleashed is if the opponent is putting up points. and especially against a carolina defense that forces tons of short-area throws, a josh allen takeover is going to need cooperation from the game environment.
LAMAR // HENRY // BEARS D ::
the chicago defense is quickly improving, but lamar (if he plays) and henry (especially if lamar plays) are outrageously cheap. henry, of course, has far more paths to failure.
THOUGHTS ON TITANS OFFENSE UNDER INTERIM HC ::
mike mccoy brought fresh creativity to the titans offense, but ran out of steam/ideas after about a quarter and a half. i wonder if this is something that will continue building (what if mike mccoy has quietly been building himself back up as a viable offensive mind?), or if we’ve already seen mccoy shoot his shot.
realistically, the titans still have enough problems even if this offense is suddenly far more creative that it still probably won’t all come together without warning. in other words, the risk of missing out on a big game is low, and we probably have a few more weeks of watching and gathering information before potentially reaching a point in time where it makes sense to pull the trigger. but for large-field play, at least, these are questions worth asking.
WEEK 8 QBs ::
it’s a wild week in the mid-range of qb.
bo nix v dallas
caleb v a still-banged-up baltimore
jaxson dart v anyone
not to mention flacco with weapons, penix v miami with weapons, and even dalton capable of throwing for 300-3 (albeit unlikely) vs buffalo
while all those guys are volatile, all have 30-pointers within their range of outcomes on this slate as well
even with lamar so cheap, qb looks pretty wide-open
THOUGHTS ON WEEK 8 RBs, ZAY FLOWERS ::
i don’t know if there will be a viable way to do it, but on probably about 1% of slates, we get an outcome where playing two of cmc // jt // bijan together would prove slate-breaking (both guys scoring, say, 38+). basically, “what is their 90th percentile outcome, and what are the chances of them doing that together?). just something fun to look for viable ways of doing this week.
POSSIBLE WEEK 8 CHALK BUILD ::
affordable qb
cheap te
~5k to ~6k wideouts
a couple cost-conscious rbs ($7k and below)
one high-end to elite piece
that seems to be the early favorite for “chalk build,” based on early opto builds
BIJAN // LONDON // PENIX VS. MIAMI D THOUGHTS ::
Here’s some wacky correlation ::
across his last seven games, bijan has topped 27.4 DK points three times :: 38.8 // 31.1 // 34.3.
drake london’s scores in those games? :: 34.8 // 28.0 // 43.7.
that’s combined scores of 73.6 // 59.1 // 78.0 — in three of seven games — for $15.2k. playing miami this week, where 1) the defense is soft, and 2) there is an outside shot at both offenses doing well here and the scoring taking off.
total points in those games above were 38 // 61 // 82 — so we’ve seen that it can happen without a shootout…though a shootout would obviously help.
adding penix ($20.1k in total salary) also works, of course, with scores of 88.2 // 81.8 // 107.0.
all three of theses guys will be popular this week, but bijan + london with no penix will surely be unique, while the full trio will be underowned relative to expectations. these three + one or two pieces from the dolphins is also sure to go underowned. either home stadium would work here, but this game being played in the dome gives it even more juice. the atlanta defense has been good…but what if the miami offense can get things going indoors? before running into the weather and the browns, they had scored 27 (chargers), 24 (panthers), 27 (jets), 21 (bills), 27 (pats), 8 (colts). something like a 27-34 game wouldn’t look strange or out of place at the end of the day on sunday.
worth noting :: in the three games in which bijan/london smashed, mooney got hurt in one and missed the other two. given his role in the offense, this feels at least a little bit coincidental…but it’s also a glaring data point to consider.
WEEK 7 BETTING RECAP ::
A little betting recap ::
In Week 7, we lost Falcons +3.5 at San Francisco (I took the bet after Fred Warner was hurt, and got in before the move to +2.5 that came after the Falcons beat the Bills; taking the bet early, however, meant I didn’t have the news of Kittle returning, which dramatically improves the 49ers rushing attack and probably would have kept me away from the bet).
That was the only loss we had in here.
In Week 7, we booked wins on:
Colts +1.5 at Chargers
Cowboys // Commanders over 54.5 (two units)
Cardinals +7 vs Green Bay
Patriots -6 at Tennessee (four units)
Panthers +2.5 at Jets
Seahawks -2.5 v Texans
A full-unit parlay of Seahawks -2.5 + Patriots to win
As mentioned previously, I’ve been betting one unit regardless of the odds (so rather than “betting to win one unit,” I simply bet one unit). By that accounting/math, at the odds/lines where these bets were taken, Week 7 returned 9.6 units (pretty wild), with +13.4 units on the year so far (roughly three weeks of action; I was down about one unit through Week 4 from three different early-season parlays; all other bets have been tracked in here).
ROI on the year is 50.09% — which is quite literally impossible, even if we have edge here. But even with that unsustainably high rate, I do continue to think there’s a good chance we have some level of edge, due to A) the lens through which I watch games and assess teams, and B) the fact that I don’t try to pick all games, but instead only attack high-confidence spots.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
WEEK 8 BETTING OVERVIEW ::
On that note (only attacking high-confidence spots), we don’t have much for Week 8.
Last week, I dropped a three-leg parlay that was -105 at the time :: Bills to beat the Panthers // Falcons to beat the Dolphins // Colts to beat the Titans.
I have since added a half unit on the Cowboys to beat the Broncos at +142. (Dallas is essentially 2024 Cincy, but with a higher floor on defense. The Broncos have a tremendous defense, but a wildly inconsistent offense. I think this game is closer to 50/50, so +142 is nice odds.)
That’s all I have for this week.
WEEK 9 EARLY BETS ::
Early bets for Week 9 ::
Panthers +10.5 at the Packers. The Packers’ offense is mostly “run the ball and throw downfield.” The Panthers have a good run defense, and teams usually elect to take underneath throws against their defense, so it’s not a great blend of matchup for Green Bay. On top of that, Green Bay has had a hard time pulling away from teams (this is now the third time I’ve taken the underdog against the spread vs Green Bay — after wins vs the spread with the Bengals and Cardinals). This becomes even better if it’s still Dalton under center instead of Bryce Young (though the Panthers would have a better shot at outright winning if Young were healthy by next week, as Young has a lower floor but a higher ceiling), but either way, I like this bet.
Broncos -1.5 at Houston. The Texans’ defense is so good, which makes any bet against this team a bit scary (see our Seahawks -2.5 last week, where Seattle was clearly the better team, but where this game was still close due to four turnovers forced by the Texans), but in terms “if an offense is playing against a good defense, who is the worst offense in football?” my answer would be the Texans. What I mean by that is: the Texans aren’t broken like the Raiders or the Titans, but what makes them “bad” is so consistently exposed against good defenses that they become the worst offense in the league when playing tough defensive competition. Unless they fix a lot within the next couple weeks, -1.5 is too small for the Broncos here.
Finally, as hot as we are in here at the moment, keep in mind that all betting should be done with a mindset of, “Am I genuinely okay losing this money?”
I’ve never heard of someone finishing a season with 50% ROI in betting, so we should obviously/absolutely expect a cool-off. I think we can continue to remain profitable through the year, but if we do, it will likely be small margins, and that should be our mindset here.
