JM’s Journal 7.25

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

TUESDAY, OCT. 14 FIRST-LOOK THOUGHTS ::

early qb reflections ::

@everyone — I’ve been getting thoughts out on Monday night the last couple weeks, but I had some fatigue on Sunday night when I opened the slate and saw another Cowboys slate. Now playing Washington with a 54.5 point total — something we never see on the Main Slate anymore.

I’ll be starting my deeper dives into things late tonight, but some early QB thoughts before I board my return flight in Oakland:

Caleb continues to struggle with ball placement, but everything else on this Bears offense looks good, and while the Saints aren’t bad, Caleb should be able to do well here if he does his part. One major dent to his upside is the possibility of Dennis Allen (who obviously knows Rattler well) figuring out how to trip Rattler up on the road. The Saints’ offense (as we’ve talked about all year) is impressively competent, but if they get tripped up early on the road, we might lose the need for a big game from Caleb. Realistically, all QBs on this slate should
be compared to Dak and an underpriced Jayden first and foremost, and Caleb is an underdog to matter on this slate in that context.

Pat Mahomes has 26+ DK points in 4 of 6. All of those were competitive games, which is unlikely to be the case with broken Geno taking on the Chiefs’ D. He can at least be considered, though.

Fields looks awful, and the Panthers are unlikely to pull away to such an extent that we get late-game chaotic Fields, but that possibility can’t be dismissed. Opportunity for ceiling is dented a bit by the fact that the Jets defense is starting to play much better, which could trip up this whole game environment.

The Pats could bury the Titans, but what’s the ceiling on Maye if this game is uncompetitive?

Herbert and Daniel Jones are dark horses for notable production.

And then we have Jayden at only $6.9k against Dallas, and Dak on the other side being asked to respond.

Okay, so not much.

Could be a strange week — but as we know, answers will start to come as we get deeper in.

Pricing looks really tight this week, which gives us an edge as sharp DFS players.

I’ll be back late tonight with more observations and (presumably) insights.

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 15 THOUGHTS ::

SLATE-OPENING REFLECTIONS ::

You won’t ever catch me complaining about my “work” (what’s better than this!?); and this year in particular — for the first time since I started writing DFS content more than a decade ago — I’ve been looking at the NFL season saying, “I’m going to miss this when it’s over” (instead of looking forward and saying, “Okay, yeah, it’s a grind, but only X number of weeks remaining”). There’s a trick being played on my mind this year with the Journal, to where I feel like I really only have one day of content each week (even though I’m probably writing more words in here than I was writing in DFS Interpretations the last few years; something about being able to just explore the slate and share my thoughts as they develop has been really enjoyable — and really beneficial to my understanding of the slate — and has made it feel like I’m really just “playing DFS and jotting down my thoughts along the way”).

With all that said, however, the first ~seven weeks of the season each year are an absolute sprint. While we have a tremendous team at OWS, and I have far fewer “work” responsibilities than I had in the early years of the site, the early part of the NFL season is pretty much wall-to-wall weeks, with all of my non-NFL time filled with either family or “work.” As the wave of early-season NFL work crashes, another wave builds up behind it with NBA tip-off approaching. This year (same as every year), we’re rolling out NBA Props; and we’re also bringing back the NBA Bink Machine (actually, pretty cool: we worked out a deal with FTN where we can offer the NBA Bink Machine for only $20/month(!) — so that’s projections, ownership projections, and an optimizer for less than a dollar per slate; IF you play NBA DFS, it’s a nice way to have important tools in-hand without breaking the bank). All of this requires communication, organization, and hands-on work on my end that makes a week like this feel like the final sprint in a series of sprints.

Why am I sharing all this in here? Because I just wrapped up my NBA work today…

…and every year, the conclusion of my “NBA launch” work essentially marks the end of my “work” season, and the start of my “just playing DFS and creating content the rest of the year” season. As I also mentioned above, my content creation doesn’t even remotely feel like work/responsibility at this point…which means I’m basically just a DFS player from this point forward. (Let’s go!)

Between the “Cowboys fatigue” I was dealing with at the start of the week and the NBA work on my plate the last couple days, this week could have potential to feel “squeezed pretty tight”…

…but the truth is, this is one of the most straightforward weeks I can remember.

Have you looked at game environments this week? The Commanders and Cowboys have a massive 54.5-point total (if we throw out Week 1, where weird things happen, every Cowboys game on the season has gone over this number), and the list of “game environments that could challenge this one” is thin and not all that inspiring. (To be clear: this doesn’t mean we’re just playing that game and moving on; but like a “Coors Field slate” in MLB DFS, that game does comprehensively dictate how we want to view/attack the slate as a whole.)

Have you looked at running back this week? Quinshon Judkins is an absolute focal point for the Browns’ offense, and he is taking on one of the worst run defenses we have seen in years. There are other solid backs, but contrary to what projections and even content providers are likely to say, there’s a gap between this first play and the others, and the running back options on this week are less inspiring than we’ve had in recent weeks. If you’re looking for one-offs at wide receiver, almost nothing stands out as high-confidence. (I’ll get to the exceptions later, of course.)

Tight end is honestly full of solid options.

And if you look at DST, it’s tough to make a clear case for any options under $3400, and the options at/above that mark mostly look attractive.

What you can expect from me tonight :: I have the kids for the next two and a half hours, and my original plan was to wrap my “work” during this time and then start dropping thoughts into the Journal around 7 PM Pacific. With my work finished early and the kids relaxing // watching a show, however, I’m going to start dropping in thoughts early. I don’t know how fluid the flow of these thoughts will be, as I may get interrupted by young’uns who need help. But I think I have a pretty good (early) feel for this slate, so I’ll start exploring my thoughts here as I can, and by the time you wake up on Thursday morning, I expect I’ll have a pretty comprehensive breakdown in here of how I’m seeing the slate, and of some of the angles I’m working with on my end in the early going this week.

WEEK 6 BETTING REVIEW ::

Before we get deeper into DFS, a quick note on betting:

I’m sitting on +3.77 units on the year after a slightly down Week 6.

The Jets showed notable improvement on the defensive side of the ball in Week 6, and the Broncos’ big-play-hunting came up empty, so I not only lost a full unit on Broncos -6.5, but I also lost 0.25 units on a Broncos alt line ladder. I mentioned last week that if I could have gone back and done things again, I would not have taken Cowboys -3.5 at Carolina, which was another one I lost. And then after the Falcons and Bills scored 28 combined points in just over a quarter of play, there were only 10 points scored the rest of the way (with a bunch of failed fourth downs and other edge-of-the-knife moments — missed field goal // Drake London out at the half-yard-line on the last play of the half, etc. — sinking the flow I needed for the Over there). When those points piled up so quickly, the in-game Over/Under moved as high as 61.5, and I nearly pulled the trigger on a full unit to the Under there, but I didn’t, and I ate the full loss instead of offsetting things with a move that looked pretty obvious in retrospect.

On the winning side, I got the Patriots money line over the Saints (-205), the Bengals at +14.5 vs the Packers, and the Seahawks +1.5 at the Jags (though apparently I only bet a half-unit there, which I hadn’t remembered heading into Sunday; oops).

I have eight bets open for Week 7, but most of them were placed early (several of them were shared in here last week), and due to the line movement we’ve gotten, there isn’t much opportunity to tail me on these if you waited to grab them. To run through them, though:

Last week I took the Seahawks -2.5 at home vs the Texans (calling it one of my favorite bets). That line is now -3, which is a very different bet.

As mentioned last week, I also upped my exposure to this bet by adding one unit of a “Patriots to win and Seahawks to cover” parlay.

We took the Panthers at +2.5 vs the Jets last week, saying they were the better team and were installed as underdogs, making it a fairly easy/straightforward bet. After Week 6, the Panthers shifted to -1.5 favorites, so we got really nice value there.

As mentioned last week, I put down four units on Patriots -6 at the Titans, which has since moved to -7. Again: nice value.

The Cardinals have played the 49ers, Seahawks, and Colts to losses of 4 or fewer points, and are a highly competitive team in spite of their record (and in spite of their pathetic collapse vs the Titans). I took them last week at +7 at home vs the Packers, which has since moved to +6.5. (Same as the Patriots // Titans line: 7 is an important threshold, so this was nice value as well.)

Before the Falcons’ game vs the Bills — but after the Fred Warner injury on the 49ers — I took the Falcons at +3.5 at the 49ers. That one has since moved to +2.5, which is massive. (Like the number seven, the number three is a big threshold.) The Falcons are on the road, but they are the better team, and the 49ers are missing two DPOY candidates, which is obviously significant.

I put down two units on the Over in the Cowboys // Commanders game. 54.5 is an enormous number, but the Cowboys’ offensive excellence and defensive issues have been a perfect storm so far.

Finally, I put down a unit on the Colts at +1.5 on the road against the Chargers. I was back and forth on this one (as I trust Harbaugh to find a pathway to a win), but with the state of the Chargers’ offensive line and backfield, the Colts are just a better team, and home field for the Chargers is not what it is for other teams. This one feels closer to that 55/45 line we should be looking for than some of the other bets listed above, but I still like it as +EV.

I’ll keep tracking these in here as we move forward — and if I find any early bets for next week, I’ll drop those in here as well.

BROWNS WEEK 7 DFS OBSERVATIONS ::

Breece Hall Observations ::

It currently looks like Breece Hall is on track to be one of the higher-owned plays on the slate, as he’s popping in optos/projections. I don’t think he’ll be in my player pool, as projections are definitely underestimating the Carolina run defense (see what they did to Achane and Javonte), and we have a Jets offense that is one of the worst in the NFL, and is expected to be without their top pass-catcher in Garrett Wilson. To be clear: Hall is a home-run hitter, and it won’t be surprising if he pops for a home run and buries rosters that didn’t play him. I also don’t think he’s a “bad play,” if you’ve been gravitating toward this one on your end. But I do think there would be edge, over a large sample size, to fading him at high ownership in this spot. I’m off him because the play doesn’t stand out to me (rather than being off him for strategic reasons), but the strategic angle works as well.

FRIDAY, OCT. 17 THOUGHTS ::

DILLON GABRIEL // QUINSHON JUDKINS STACKING PARTNER ANGLE ::

Picture this. the browns are playing an awful miami defense. dillon gabriel throws for 225 yards, and quinshon judkins rushes for 110. not a stretch, right? the browns score three team touchdowns (also not a stretch), and gabriel/judkins are represented in all three (it’s unlikely things would shake out a different way). add 3ish points through the air for judkins (4 // 1.1 // 7.3 // 2.8 // 0 so far), and this is about 40 DK points. these two cost $10.4k combined.

been building some “triple pay-up” rosters with this one. i remain a fan of it.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ON JUDKINS’ UPSIDE ::

Judkins’ rushing yardage prop is 95.5. that’s absurd. to put that in context, breece hall (expected to be popular) is 67.5. offensive player of the year front runner jonathan taylor is 88.5. saquon is 73.5. a rushing prop of 95.5 is outrageous. just saying…

To be clear (obviously), i’ve lost weeks on lock-button plays before. but i’ve also won weeks on them. this isn’t fields the first time he popped, or josh allen in that monster game vs the eagles a couple years ago, or some other plays i’ve felt this way about in the past. but in the context of what this slate provides, judkins really stands out to me. i think he’s just clearly a very sharp on-paper play (especially as projections don’t quite have him in the top 3/4 options in terms of expectations against salary spent), and i’m simplifying my own week by just including him on everything i build.

The game total has been dropping with weather concerns, creating a small dent in projections for judkins (as projections rely on game totals and implied team totals as a key data point). as we can see with his rushing prop, however, the concern shouldn’t really stretch to him, and the dent in projections should serve to slightly lower his ownership. it’s a nice setup all the way around.

DIFFERENT ANGLES ON ROSTERING JAYDEN DANIELS ::

What happens if we’re missing both Deebo and McLaurin?

My quick thoughts:

Jayden topped 25.2 DK points six times last year. In three of those games, he had pass attempt totals of 23 // 24 // 30. I would imagine the Commanders would try to land more in the 24-32 range here, with Jayden running eight to 10 times and Bill taking 16 to 20 carries of his own to round out the team’s plays. If we were to get 30 targeted attempts, we might expect something like:

10 attempts to tight ends
4 attempts to running backs
16 attempts to wide receivers, spread amongst Luke McCaffrey, Chris Moore, and Jaylin Lane.

We’d almost certainly see more 12-personnel, as well.

I think it would be likely that we would see a strong wide receiver score emerge from this team (especially price-considered), but it might be tough to know where that score will come from.

Maybe the angle is to play Jayden with two cheap wideouts?

Maybe it’s to play him with Ertz and guess on a wideout?

Maybe it’s just to pair him with Ertz, who I think has a good shot at something like 6-60-1 here even if one of the wideouts plays.

Just some preliminary thoughts. No need to spend more brainpower than this, as I’m getting ready for today’s pods, and we’ll have more clarity here soon enough anyway; but I wanted to pass along those pre-depth thoughts.

PLAYER GRID ANNOUNCEMENT ::

Player Grid is live! – https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-7-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-7-25

SATURDAY, OCT. 18 THOUGHTS ::

DAK // CEEDEE // PICKENS STACK ANGLE ::

Just thinking some more about this dak + ceedee + pickens idea.

you need something like 14-210-3 between the two wideouts for it to make sense.

that’s obviously not the likeliest scenario, but it does have a reasonable enough probability of happening that the play makes sense given how low-owned it is likely to be.

dak throws for 330-4, and we have a really good shot at getting there; and suddenly this is the stack you had to have on the week.

i’ll keep this in mind as one of my potential core builds.

SIMS RESULTS FOR DAK // CEEDEE // PICKENS STACK ::

@everyone — I just imported my hand-builds and ran the sims on them, and my dak // ceedee // pickens rosters were my highest-roi dak rosters, and were among my highest-roi rosters on the week (top 1%, in spite of the fact that the sims have generally not loved dak builds this week — biasing the projections/math in favor of the running qb in that game).

that’s not gospel, of course, but it’s a data point in favor of the viability of this approach. we’re betting on something that probably happens 3% of the time in this spot; but if it happen, you’re pretty quickly positioned to be in the top 1% (probably more like top .5% or better) of tourneys.

mid-week sims have my favorite roster of the bunch finishing in the top 1% of large-field tourneys 3.8% of the time; and more importantly, they have this roster finishing in the top 0.1% of large-field tourneys 0.62% of the time.

when i run the sims on this for small-field single-entry, this favorite roster of mine pops as the number 3 roi roster out of more than 3,000 total rosters on the week — and one of the two rosters above it is another dak // ceedee // pickens build that the bink machine gave me earlier in the week

again: not gospel; but still worthwhile data points

the math is really good here

RASHEE RICE THOUGHTS ::

Rashee Rice started his career with 10 games in which he did not top seven targets. Then came an 8-107-1 game, on 10 targets. From that point until now, Rice has played 13 games (playoffs included), and he has seen 9+ targets in nine of those games (while seeing six or more in 12/13). Over this stretch, he has averaged 19.3 DK points per game. He has finished below 14.4 only three times in 13 games, and he has scored 18.5 or more in 8/13. The price tag on Rice really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense here. We know that already, of course; but just adding some numbers for emphasis.

None of this guarantees that he’ll hit this week. But he’s good chalk, for sure.

SUNDAY, OCT. 19 THOUGHTS/UPDATES ::

PLAYER GRID UPDATE ::

Sunday morning update :: https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-7-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-7-25