Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
OWS Fam!
I have this rule in DFS. No matter the result, turn the page.
The first real rule of DFS is you never want to bet what you aren’t willing to lose. And if we agree that’s the first rule, we could argue the second rule is that the last slate’s results have no effect on the next slate’s outcomes.
There’s always some element of running hot and refining the process to where we are building the right lineups day after day, week after week. But one of the fascinating aspects of DFS is that win or lose, the slate resets and what worked on the last slate is not guaranteed to work on the next one. It’s one of the most prominent ironies of winning big in DFS that whatever worked for you, you are likely to go back to it time and time again (I have learned this the hard way with game overstacks for many years), and the reality is there were many factors that built toward why that specific strategy worked on that specific slate.
In life, this works too. Reflecting on the past is bound to make us sharper on what our futures will look like. But all the events that have happened in our past were circumstantial. They happened because of many different factors in play, and yet because we experienced it, we overestimate the likelihood of these events happening again. We’re confident, even though we know there will always be variables that cannot be controlled. It’s why the future is so unpredictable, but it’s why it’s fun to daydream and, in this context, predict exactly what will happen in real NFL games.
So, we’re onto Week 10 in the 2025 season; and remember that no matter your results, you need to turn the page. What you did on the last slate has no bearing on this one. What you do on the next won’t matter for the slate after that. Reshuffle the deck and start fresh. It’s Thursday, so I’m sure many of us are already on our way.
$1 Weekly Pass
In the 10th edition of this Angles Email, your brain should already be expecting a promotion right here. And your brain was right!
This week, you can join OWS on a full weekly pass for one dollar! Probably a good investment this week. Probably not enough money that you need to run it by a significant other who you budget with.
Pretty cool deal for a pretty cool site.
Week 10 :: Four at the Top
We have a 10-game slate yet again with the Falcons and Colts meeting in Berlin, Germany and four teams (Chiefs, Cowboys, Bengals, Titans) on a bye. Also off the main slate are the Raiders and Broncos, who meet tonight. We also have the Steelers and Chargers on Sunday night, and Eagles // Packers on Monday.
In terms of game environments, as we get later into the season we’ll continue to see some lopsided spreads emerge and the true game environments to target start to become less obvious. This situation is emerging this week but because we know a lot about these teams by Week 10, there are three environments that immediately catch my eye.
“Tier 1”
Beyond the game environments, there’s always the handful of offenses expected to put up a slate-leading amount of points. In Week 10, that’s the Bills (at Miami), Lions (at Washington), and Seahawks (vs. Arizona). Josh Allen played the role of one-man show in the somewhat convincing Bills win last week hosting Kansas City. His offense should face less resistance this week with the tanking Dolphins. But that’s what we should expect. It will be hot in Miami for the time of year (and for what Buffalo is used to). Allen is Allen, however. And Tua is Tua. We’ve seen some crazy games from these two over the years, but usually later in the season (like the 56-26 in Week 17 of 2020), so with the circumstances, it’s likely Buffalo just wants a low-risk win here. At least that’s what we should expect…
Detroit can’t wait for kickoff, likely more than any other team this week, after the surprising loss in Week 9 to Minnesota. Washington is reeling off the likely season-ending loss of Jayden Daniels and is coming off a short week, which doesn’t really set them up in the best position to succeed. Wide receivers continue to torch Washington (second worst in yards allowed and fantasy points allowed), setting up the perfect spot for an Amon-Ra St. Brown explosion.
Speaking of WR explosions, there’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has been so good this season, I don’t have to look up how to spell his name correctly. Arizona travels to Seattle on a short week, after a convincing MNF win in Dallas. JSN and Sam Darnold are clicking, and Seattle’s defense showed why the Seahawks are a true contender in a loaded NFC. If Jacoby Brissett can continue to keep the Cards frisky here, this game could challenge the others; but the talent on the Seattle side defensively, with Mike Macdonald’s schemes, may put a wet blanket on that idea.
“Tier 3”
Skipping over Tier 2 here, the remaining games on this slate leave much to be desired. It’s important to note, as always, that this is likely how the field will also see these games. There can always be superior box scores that emerge from these environments, but all of the Jets // Browns, Saints // Panthers, and Jags // Texans do little to inspire confidence. First, we have the Jets trading their two best defensive players, opposite Dillon Gabriel. Then Tyler Shough and the Saints going to Carolina, with the only guarantee in this game being Rico Dowdle’s carries. And finally the Jaguars without Travis Hunter and now likely Brian Thomas Jr. facing a Texans team likely quarterbacked by Davis Mills. I think we’re good here.
DFS regenerates every week. New matchups, new slate, new prizes to be won. Turn the page on last week’s slate and go through these matchups with a keen eye. All of this is obvious.
And so was the way I wrote about each of these. So where can the expected outcomes be turned on their heads to produce unexpected results?
Get your $1 pass to find out more on the site this weekend, and we’ll see you in the Binks channel on Sunday.
~ Larejo
