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One Week Stats 4.25

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB
  • Daniel Jones enters Week 4 as QB4 in DraftKings scoring, averaging 23.7 FP/g. He ranks 10th in QB Accuracy Rating (71.6%), which measures whether the throw was on target regardless of the catch. This comes after finishing 36th in 2024 with the Giants (64%). A big reason for the resurgence is offensive line play. Jones has been pressured on just 24.5% of his dropbacks (9th lowest) compared to last year in NYG, where he faced pressure on 34% of dropbacks (7th highest). That protection has allowed him to average 9.51 adjusted yards per attempt (ANY/A, 1st), which has him at .76 fantasy points per dropback, a 110% increase from his production last season with the Giants. 
  • Jared Goff is back at home (22.7 FP/g in 2024) after another strong start in BAL, where his RBs took most of the scoring opportunities (202-1-0, 71% completion rate). This week, he faces 2025’s ultimate pass funnel defense, with CLE allowing 72% of yards through the air while holding opponents to just 2.18 yards per carry, even after matchups with GB and BAL. That should push DET toward a higher neutral pass rate, and while there is always some blowout risk (DET is laying 10 points), we have seen Dan Campbell run up the score at home, as he did in Week 2. CLE plays man coverage at the highest rate, and Goff ranks 1st in passer rating vs man (135.8) after leading the league in 2024 (122.1). He and his WRs are projected to be 1% (Goff & Jameson Williams) to 10% owned (Amon-Ra St. Brown). 
  • Michael Penix and the 2025 ATL offense (outside of Bijan Robinson) have been awful (.21 points per play is dead last). So bad, it makes Bijan’s 22 FG/g average even more impressive. While at the same time, their defense has played very well, making their games extremely unfriendly for DFS (averaging a combined 33.7 points per game). It looks like we are in for another gross game for DFS with both Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin OUT for WAS, and these defenses 1st (ATL, 51.7%) and 2nd (WAS, 51.9%) in Opponent Completion Rate. All that said, WAS is decimated in the secondary after losing Will Harris (IR). Trey Amos and Percy Butler are also questionable after exiting the game in week 3. This, after allowing Geno Smith 289-3-0 on just 29 pass attempts. 
  • Marcus Mariota got a $1K price increase after another strong showing as Daniel’s backup (see last week’s article for more data), but this week sets up much tougher. He faces ATL, which has held QBs to a 64.5 passer rating (2nd) while limiting opponents to just 52.3 plays per game (2nd). Even with the “revenge game” angle, Mariota will find things much more difficult than last week against Las Vegas, especially without Terry McLaurin to stretch the field (ATL allowing a league low 131 passing yards per game). 
RB
  • Saquon Barkley’s rushing production over his last four games (including the Super Bowl) has been a tough watch: 83 carries for 251 yards at just 3.02 YPC. His Breakaway Rush % (15+ yard carries) sits at 1.72% after 7.25% in 2024 (3rd). TB has allowed only 3.0 YPC to RBs, fresh off shutting down the Jets backfield last week. One positive for Barkley, and maybe more relevant to the prop market, is his 88% route participation this season (up from 74% in 2024), which has driven a 15% true target share, a 5%+ jump from last year. TB has allowed 11.8 yards per target to RBs this season, giving up the 2nd most receiving yards to the position despite facing only the 15th most targets.
  • Since the start of last season, James Cook has played three games with the Bills favored by 8.5+ points. Those games have gone as expected, with Cook averaging 15 carries for 87 yards and a rushing TD per game (20 FP/g on DraftKings). New Orleans hasn’t been bad against the run; they just held SEA to 2.66 YPC last week in a blowout, yet they still rank 5th in fantasy points allowed to RBs. The reason is volume: they let opponents into the red zone often. Last week, SEA converted 5 RZ trips into 4  TDs. With the Bills projected to score a slate-high 31.75 points, Cook is my most rostered player at this point of making lineups. 
  • With Tyrone Tracy OUT, Cam Skattebo will be a popular play this week despite the tough matchup (LAC has allowed the 5th fewest FP per game). Last week, he ran a route on 58% of NYG’s dropbacks, catching 6 of 8 targets for 12.1 FP (24.1 overall). Now he gets what should be a QB upgrade in an offense that targets RBs at the 5th highest rate (26.5%). Skattebo has also looked strong as a runner, averaging 3.64 yards after contact compared to Tracy’s 1.68. He ranks 5th in fantasy points per rush attempt and has handled all 8 of the team’s RZ RB carries this season. The matchup doesn’t look great on the surface (fewest rush attempts allowed per game), but that’s more about volume and game script than a true shutdown front. JK Dobbins just went 11-83-1 on them last week.
WR
  • Puka Nacua has run 45% of his routes from the slot, which means (with Kenny Moore Jr. OUT) he will see plenty of Mekhi Blackmon, a third round JAG coming off a torn ACL. Puka holds a clear height, weight, and talent advantage over the backup slot CB. The Colts have played man coverage on 25% of snaps, a number that will likely dip this week without Moore. Puka ranks 3rd among qualified WRs in yards per route run vs zone coverage this season (5.14 YPRR vs zone) after finishing 1st in 2024 (3.23 YPRR vs zone). Beyond the plus matchup, the Rams could also be without Davante Adams. Adams leads the team with eight end zone targets, while Puka has yet to see one. I would actually prefer Adams to play for the overall upside of the game, but if he is out, you have to assume those end zone looks funnel to Puka, pushing his already absurd ceiling into another stratosphere. It might sound crazy to say the WR1 in fantasy has untapped upside, but when you are averaging 26.5 DK points per game without a touchdown, it is hard to argue otherwise.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 2.64 yards per route run against man coverage last season (13th) and 4.03 YPRR vs man coverage this season (2nd).  As discussed in the Goff section, CLE has played the highest man coverage rate this season and likes to blitz, which should give ASB and Jameson Williams opportunities for big plays. 
  • Despite seeing shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain last week on over 80% of his routes, Quentin Johnston still produced a solid 6-89-0 line on 10 targets. He now leads the Chargers in first-read target share, running a route on 92% of their dropbacks. His 5 red zone targets are tied with Keenan Allen (while Ladd McConkey has just 1). With this elite efficiency and usage (12th in Dominator Rating, which combines a player’s % of team receiving yards and TD%), I expected the public to be all over QJ,  given recency bias and his matchup with the Giants (2nd most passing yards and FP allowed to WRs). Instead, Johnston is projected at just 10–15% ownership, which makes him a core piece in many of my lineups.
Bonus Coverage: Sunday Night Football 
  • Matthew Golden believes he is ready to break out, and it’s hard to argue given this “generational” matchup with the Cowboys’ secondary. Per @UnderdogNFL: “I know it’s bound to happen. I’m not pressing, but I know whenever it does happen, it’s going to boost your confidence … I know whenever I get the opportunity, I’m going to take off with it.” Dallas is allowing 51 DraftKings points per game to WRs. For context, over the past five seasons, the most WR-friendly defense was the 2020 Falcons, who gave up 47 FP/g. CBs Kair Elam and Trevon Diggs have combined to allow 34 FP/g in coverage, more than 16 entire teams have allowed in total. Opponents are completing 71% of passes at 9.0 YPA against them. With Jordan Love throwing deep at the 5th highest rate and Dallas giving up the most 15+ yard receptions, Golden (15.6 aDOT) has a real chance to get loose.
TE
  • I can’t believe I’m writing this, but with Michael Mayer OUT, it’s time to be all-in on the low(ish)-owned Brock Bowers. Mayer out-snapped Bowers in Week 1, and since then, Bowers usage has trended down. His target share, route participation, and fantasy points per route run have all dipped this season (.33 FP/RR vs .43 in 2024). Chicago just allowed Jake Ferguson to catch 13 of 14 targets last week, giving them an 89% catch rate allowed to TEs on the season. More important is Bowers’ health. He logged a full week of practice for the first time since Week 1, which has me very bullish. 
  • Juwan Johnson still isn’t priced in line with his usage and role in this Kellen Moore offense (1st in neutral pace). As a massive road dog again (-15.5), the Saints should be throwing often (2nd in neutral pass rate). The only real risk is game script — if it gets out of hand like last week in SEA, Johnson could lose some 4th-quarter snaps. Among all TEs, Johnson ranks 5th in route participation, 5th in first-read target share, and 4th in overall TE target share. BUF’s recent numbers vs TEs are misleading since they faced MIA and NYJ, two offenses that don’t feature the position. At his low projected ownership (5–7%), Johnson will be in a lot of my (non-Bowers) lineups.