Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.
Week 3 brings us another four game slate and there are a ton of dynamics that make this specific slate very intriguing. The DAL/CHI game is the most exciting game on the Main Slate and will be very popular there, making it the clear top game environment on this short slate. I believe DEN/LAC has more shootout potential than people will realize. Both teams have good defenses, but both staffs also know each other well and the game should be competitive. We have seen recently how games can appear mundane and then turn the jets on late when they are close and teams start getting aggressive down the stretch. On the same note, ARI/SF has what appears to be concentrated offenses and a lot of fun angles to play with. Finally, the Seahawks and Saints are set for a potentially really fun game script (New Orleans plays fast and Seattle’s defense is dealing with injuries in the secondary) while everyone in that game is very cheap. Overstacking that game could be really fruitful, as most people try to pick the correct one or two pieces and move on to building around the more exciting DAL/CHI game. Finally, there are two things to consider from a big picture perspective on this slate.
This provides an opportunity for us to build rosters for this slate, but putting them in the Main Slate contests as a way to be unique (very few people will just use a player pool from these four games on their Main Slate rosters). It also provides an opportunity for us to fade one of those massive chalk spots on one of the slates while going all-in on it on the other slate. For example, you could play a lot of KW3 on the Main Slate, but fade him completely on the Afternoon Only slate. He will likely have over 50% ownership on the Afternoon Only slate, so fading him there provides massive leverage if he gets hurt, fails, or two or three other RBs just outperform him on the short slate.
Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:
