Dummy Grid 2.25

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Mac Jones
Breece Hall
Christian McCaffrey
Kendrick Bourne
Davante Adams
Cedric Tillman
Harold Fannin
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Broncos

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Christian McCaffrey

Touches + talent. It’s really as simple as that.

The 49ers are playing in a deeply competitive division, and they have aspirations of going deep into the playoffs. They cannot afford to drop a game in New Orleans, regardless of who is under center, and a big part of their game plan for winning this one will surely be CMC, as this offense is missing most of its main horses. On top of that, the Saints played at the fastest pace in the NFL last week (by far), running regular no-huddle, snapping the ball with more than 20 seconds remaining on the play clock, etc., which creates extra plays overall, and should ultimately create a few extra touches for CMC. Will he be the reason we win a tourney? Probably not. But he has a tremendous shot at providing a solid starting point on a roster, making him a strong option this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Dawg Pound”

Cedric Tillman + Harold Fannin

Story:

“One player; $7.4k in salary”

Why It Works:

It’s fair to say the Browns will probably have to pass in this one. And if they are passing, there are four main guys who will be involved (Jeudy // Tillman // Njoku // Fannin). Somewhere in the range of 10 to 11 targets is a confident low-end projection for Tillman + Fannin, while 15+ targets wouldn’t be surprising. (If we played out this game a hundred times, there would easily be 10+ games, and maybe quite a few more than that, in which these two would combine for 15+ targets.) Thinking of this block as a $7.4k guy who should see 10-15 targets with short-area, intermediate, and downfield work helps us see its value. This is also a way to differentiate your Fannin rosters from all the other Fannin rosters that will be out there.

How It Works:

I’ve been playing around with the idea that, while this block obviously works with Flacco, the best way to play this block might be with Jalen Hurts. No, these two aren’t correlated to Hurts. But if you’re playing this block away from Flacco, and you’re playing some Hurts (see my Hurts writeup in the Bonus section below) without a stacking partner, this is a pairing that could help turn the math in your favor a bit.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Big D”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

He Can’t Do It On His Own

Amon-Ra St. Brown could always trip into a two-score game; but given the way he is used and the price tag he carries, his clearest pathway to being tourney-viable is a heavy-volume game. And in order for him to see heavy volume, the Bears probably need to be turning this one into a track meet. With this in mind, this rule says, “On 100% of rosters that have ARSB, include one of these two Bears wideouts” (the mechanics of the rule: ARSB is the locked player, saying “on rosters that include him”; 100 is the percent of ARSB rosters on which this should apply; and the last boxes say, “play at least two, and no more than two, players from this pool” (or: “play exactly two players from this pool, on 100% of rosters that include ARSB”)).

He Probably Won’t Do It On His Own

Ja’Marr Chase can hit for 25 DK points without Joe Burrow hitting. But if I’m paying up for Chase, I’m not telling a story of him scoring 25 points. Instead, I’m telling a story of how he wins me a tourney; and how he wins me a tourney is one of his monster games: 40+ points, etc. If Chase is posting a tourney-winner, Burrow is probably doing the same; and through the entirety of Chase’s career, this is how things have worked. It’s rare for Chase to post a tourney-winner without Burrow joining him, so this rule says, “On at least 85% of Ja’Marr Chase rosters, include Joe Burrow.”

He Probably Won’t Do It On His Own II

This is the same idea as the Chase rule above. CeeDee has gone for 32+ DK points in seven games over the last two years, and Dak has hit for strong to elite scores in five of those games. If CeeDee hits a tourney-winner, there’s a good chance Dak is involved.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Kyler Murray || Dak Prescott || Joe Burrow (with Trevor Lawrence trail bets) || Joe Flacco || Jalen Hurts || Mac Jones (biased toward Pearsall over Bourne on tighter builds, but with exposure to both; sometimes including CMC, sometimes not) || Justin Fields (with a mix of Breece and Wilson) >> a large pool this week, but it’s looking like I’ll be spreading exposure at QB/WR and concentrating exposure at RB/TE/DST, which allows me to lean into higher-confidence spots while providing myself opportunities to benefit from variance in spots where I don’t feel like there are as many clear/firm stances available to take.

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM