Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
OWS Fam!
What a wild Week 1!
For any first-timers joining the community this season, welcome yet again! And if you’ve just signed up after enjoying ALL the free content in Week 1, you made a great investment.
As a reminder :: we send the Angles email on Thursdays each week to provide a high-level overview of the upcoming Sunday Main Slate, giving you a first look of sorts into the week ahead. In every other week besides Week 1 (and maybe the Thanksgiving slate), this could be one of your first primers for the week and set the path of your next few days.
The goal here is to get you thinking for the week by giving you our thinking at this point in time.
OWS is committed to providing a unique lens into the world of DFS. You’ll get some player picks here and there, but if you like to read, listen, and analyze fantasy content, boy do we have the tools to level up your DFS play.
You can expect to get out what you put in…meaning each week you should expect to sharpen your play by using all of the tools, consuming the content, learning through your unique POV, and engaging with the broader OWS community.
But before we go anywhere else…
OWS NFL PROPS WEEK 2 SPECIAL!
We don’t just do DFS, of course. And while it’s not quite as powerful as everything on the site being free, it’s pretty darn close.
Our weekly NFL props package is just $9 this week with code PROPS9 (usually $19). That’s over 50% discount for one week only.
If you rode with the team in Week 1 to the tune of a positive ROI (5-2!), continue that drumbeat this week before committing for the season with this discount! We’ll do the thinking, you just make the bets.
WEEK 2 :: WHEN WE ACTUALLY LEARN A LOT ABOUT PLAYERS AND COACHES
With Week 1 officially in the books, we turn the page to Week 2.
A week that feels a lot shorter than Week 1 (because of the summer content cycle that flows into it).
A week that seems to provide more clarity, more certainty, and more comfort.
A week that leads to overreaction, underreaction, and sometimes, barely any reactions.
I’ve always thought the mark of a great coach is one who rarely loses during games with more than one week to prepare. Of course, those opportunities come infrequently in the grind of an 18-week NFL season, but we do get glimpses such as preparing for a Super Bowl, coming off a bye week, or simply Week 1 every season.
The data backs this up. Among NFL coaches, we tend to get the same list in both categories (bye weeks + Week 1 records) with the leaders being the likes of Andy Reid (21-4 off a bye), Sean McDermott (8-0), Mike Tomlin (14-4), and Bill Belichick (16-7).
If you think about it, it makes sense as to why some people thrive in elongated strategies while others struggle. It all comes back to how prone we are to overthinking and how well we have a defined process that can be repeated for success. The great ones know how to do it, while the amateurs can bottle it up every now and again, but sustained success will be just as fleeting in Week 2 as it could be in every additional week of the season with less than seven days to prepare.
Great! So how does this help us with Week 2?
Because it’s VERY likely that some of what we saw in Week 1 is a mirage.
Thinking about repeatable process, let’s lay out a few examples of great performances in Week 1, to think and understand which we think can endure in Week 2 and beyond:
- Shane Steichen and Daniel Jones dropped 33 points on Miami and it could have been more.
- Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman cooked up the Chiefs defense with a redefined, pass-happy Justin Herbert.
- The Steelers and Jets combined for 66 points with Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields under center.
- The Packers looked like the team to beat in the NFC, while the Eagles played conservatively with a new OC and new defensive personnel.
- Kevin O’Connell and J.J. McCarthy stole the show on Monday Night Football.
Think through these one more time before turning to Week 2. History tells us at least one, if not two or three, or more of these won’t be a trend that continues in the coming months of the NFL season. It’s also likely that at least one, or maybe two or three, becomes a real trend.
In Week 2, we have to generate our perspectives on things like this. Keep in mind – there’s almost always some truth and some lies present, and rarely all or nothing one way or another.
DON’T CHASE YOUR TAIL
From a macro level, Weeks 1 and 2 are set up similarly. We have 12 total games on the main slate, with the double-header on MNF acting as the Brazil game from Week 1. Of these 12 games, a whopping nine(!) are in the early window Sunday. So get those Eagles // Chiefs players in your lineups now, because Jim Nantz and Tony Romo’s voices will be the last ones you hear while sweating out a tournament win.
As with every week, let’s at least mention those who we don’t have on this slate :: the likes of the Packers, Commanders, Chargers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Raiders, Texans, and Falcons. Meaning we’ll need to wait one more week for new-look Herbert, “rookie” McCarthy, and one Buc in every lineup (we love you, Emeka).
What we do have is four games projected for 46+ points, with the Jaguars // Bengals projected to be the highest score on the board. We also have the Bengals (26.5), Ravens (28.5), Lions (26.5), and Bills (26.5) all over 26 points to pace the projected team totals. The Cardinals (hosting Panthers) and Cowboys (hosting Giants) are right behind this cluster with 25+ team totals, so it feels like there are many ways to go with lineups this week.
In terms of at-a-glance expectations and angles to consider:
Jags // Bengals: Liam Coen went run-heavy in his first game as Jags head coach, but that was against Bryce Young and Carolina. With Joe Burrow on the other side, it’s likely he’ll maintain play-calling aggression but shift to the air. What will we get from Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins this week? Well, if the Jags can push the scoreboard (big IF with Trevor Lawrence), we should expect more from Cincy’s “Big 3.”
Eagles // Chiefs: The aforementioned late-afternoon hammer. The big question here is how will Kansas City get big plays without Rashee Rice and now, Xavier Worthy? Can Travis Kelce deliver a vintage performance? Do they go ultra run-heavy? On Philadelphia’s side, will OC Kevin Patullo give Jalen Hurts a more aggressive gameplan after watching the Chargers have success through the air? And if so, what can we expect from A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and did health affect their Week 1 performances?
Ravens (vs. Browns): Surely a sour taste in their mouth after last week’s stunning loss to Buffalo, but a run-heavy gameplan on the backs of Derrick and Lamar seems likely again as a large home favorite against Cleveland. What will Jim Schwartz have to say about that? Safe to say he likely knows this too and knows how concentrated the passing offense was around Zay Flowers last week. Can Cleveland’s “O” with Big Joe get an early lead and completely flip the game script?
Bills (at Jets): Josh Allen is notoriously not great (by his standards) against the Jets. He’s also arguably the best quarterback in the NFL. The Jets are impossible to project with a new coach and a QB who looked ‘different’ last week (Justin Fields reads progressions quickly now?). Buffalo should score, but will the Bills spread it around? Are the Jets capable of spreading it around?
Lions (vs. Bears): Back home indoors and with old friend Ben Johnson coming in on a short week, logic says both teams will be (slightly more) motivated to win this one. Logic doesn’t always prevail and we know Johnson knows this Detroit defense well. The Lions did not look like the Lions of years past in Week 1, but was it a blip or a sign of new early-season coaching? Surely new OC John Morton and Jared Goff will be looking more downfield this week after ranking last in the league in average depth of target in Green Bay.
Cowboys (vs. Giants): Home opener for the ‘Boys and incoming are the Giants with a shaky starting quarterback. Dallas looked better than expected according to most experts last week, but which version shows up here in a game they should win? CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers are sure to dominate targets on both sides, but beyond them, this game is a whole slew of unknowns.
Cardinals (vs. Panthers): The popular opinion here is that Carolina is a bottom-three team in the NFL and Arizona could be ascending (or at least trending the right way after taking care of business with New Orleans in Week 1). We’ll either get a feistier-than-expected Panthers team or one that rolls over to the Cardinals. Either way, you’ll see a few short-stature quarterback jokes in this one, and who knows, maybe the actual game environment takes off.
Game environments aren’t everything, as we know. But pricing aside, we can also clear the paint (a sports crossover analogy?!) on a few games which more times than not will prove to not be the tournament-winning stacks. Those low-scoring affairs are 49ers // Saints (Mac Jones & Spencer Rattler?), Seahawks // Steelers (don’t do this again, Rodgers), and Rams // Titans (may need to wait just a bit longer for Cam Ward). There are plenty of contributors there (CMC, Puka, JSN) but stacks? Meh.
Whatever you do, don’t chase your tail.
Whatever strategies you deployed in Week 1, whether they worked or not, the worst approach this week is to completely rethink and watch your former strategy win.
Instead, tweak and modify to maintain your process and be there when the variance hits.
And with that, we’re out of here!
We’ll see you in Props Insider (only $9 this week! — PROPS9), and we’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!
~Larejo
