The Colts used a top 15 pick in the draft on a talented tight end in hopes of adding some extra horsepower, but the keys to the car lie in the hands of either Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson for 2025.
QB: Daniel Jones
Jones has been a capable passer in his career before the injuries hit. As a rookie, he threw for 3,000+ yards 24 TDs to 12 INTs. His first year with Brian Daboll he completed 67% of his passes for 3,200 yards 15 TDs and 5 INTs while leading the team to the playoffs and a 9-6-1 record. He also rushed for 700+ yards and 7 TDs that season.
Injuries have plagued him throughout his career, none more pivotal than the ACL tear and neck injuries that have led to him becoming a game-manager at this stage of his career, as seen in 2024. Jones had 4 games with 2 TDs and 0 INTs last year, averaging 30.5 passes with a record of 2-2. In the 5 games with INTs he averaged 39.6 passes and was 0-5.
QB: Anthony Richardson
The outlook on Richardson is even more dim than Jones. Richardson’s completion percentage of 59.5 in 4 games as a rookie dropped to an abysmal 47.7% last season in 11 games with 8 passing TDs and 12 INTs.
In Richardson’s last 5 starts of 2024 he rushed 45 times for 257 yards (5.7 ypc) with 5 rushing TDs. As a passer during that span he still only completed 51% of his passes while averaging 171 ypg with 4 TDs and 5 INTs.
RB: Jonathan Taylor
Taylor has played in 14+ games in a season 3 times in 5 years. In those 3 years he averaged 1,470 rush yards (5.1 ypc) and 13 rushing TDs. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best to do it.
He doesn’t provide much as a receiver, failing to reach 20 receptions in each of the last two seasons and only averaging 1 receiving TD a year for his career.
RB: Khalil Herbert
The offseason veteran signing with a 4.8 career yard per carry average has a great shot to step up if Taylor misses another 5 games or so like he’s averaged per year since 2021.
RB: DJ Giddens
The 5th round rookie, Giddens rushed for 2,500 yards over his last 2 seasons at Kansas State. Last year his 6.6 ypc ranked among the top 10 in all of FBS. He averaged 25 receptions for almost 300 receiving yards (11.6 ypc) and two touchdowns over his last 2 collegiate seasons.
WR: Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman Jr. played banged up all season long. He’s played in 16+ games each of the last 4 years. Richardson’s play and the injury contributed heavily to Pittman Jr. seeing his targets drop to 111 after averaging 142 over the previous 3 seasons.
How much did Richardson hurt Pittman Jr.’s production? Both of Pittman Jr.’s 100-yard games and all three of his touchdowns came in games that Joe Flacco started with the exception of 1 game in which Richardson started but was injured and replaced by Flacco after 4 pass attempts.
WR: Josh Downs
Due to Pittman Jr. being less than 100% during the season, combined with Richardson finding more success with Downs than Pittman, Downs saw his targets increase by 9 on the year over his rookie season despite playing in 3 less games. Contrary to Pittman Jr., Downs will benefit more with Richardson starting than Jones.
WR: Alec Pierce
Pierce has similar availability to Pittman Jr. with him also playing in 16+ games all 3 years he’s been in the league. However, his role is different as he provides the big play threat and production can be hit-or-miss from week-to-week. He has averaged 17.6 yards per reception for his career with a stellar 2024 season that saw him average 22.3 ypr with 7 TDs and 800+ yards.
WR: Adonai Mitchell
Pierce saw his snap count drop from 95% in 2023 to 80% in 2024. Some of that is due to the play of Downs but the push to play Mitchell’s athleticism also factored into the equation. Mitchell has the athletic ability and skill set to be special but he looked lost as a rookie catching only 23 of 55 targets for a 41.8% catch rate.
TE: Tyler Warren
Warren at 6’6 – 255 pounds is the tight end that this particular offense needs. He recorded 104 receptions for 1,200+ yards and 8 TDs while also rushing 26 times for 200+ yards and 4 TDs in final collegiate season.
BREAKOUT PLAYER: Tyler Warren
The Colts didn’t have a tight end with even 15 receptions last year. As a group they combined for 2 TDs. Warren can box-out underneath and is a load to bring down, whether in routes or on the ground. Instead of being a high-octane offense, Indy will be a chain moving offense that takes their shots by being creative and Warren should be the chief beneficiary as they use his versatility to move him around.
BUST: Alec Pierce
It’ll be extremely difficult for Pierce to replicate 800 yards, 7 TDs and more so 22.3 ypc. Mitchell will eat more into his role if he even shows a little bit of development and Warren’s addition will take a lot of targets away from the third receiver.
SLEEPER: Khalil Herbert
Taylor misses time yearly. Giddens takes too many flush hits and isn’t elusive enough to earn the start. Those will go to the veteran who is an instinctive runner and does better with more opportunities. In games in which Herbert has received 10+ carries in his career, he’s averaged 5.0 ypc for 1,393 and 6 TDs.
BOLD PREDICTION: Jonathan Taylor
Workload and injuries have been the story surrounding Taylor for some time. In college he totaled 300+ touches 3 straight seasons. Since his breakout 2021 season that saw him rush for 1,800+ yards and 18 touchdowns, he’s missed significant time each year.
2022 – 6 missed games
2023 – 7 missed games
2024 – 3 missed games
Recent history continues and the average of 5+ missed games a year over the last three seasons holds true for 2024.
