Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The two massive additions to this Giants team this offseason were QB Russell Wilson and rookie OLB Abdul Carter.
- The Commanders traded RB Brian Robinson to the 49ers, leaving Austin Ekeler, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and Chris Rodriguez as the players most likely to contribute to the backfield. Jeremy Nichols also remains on the roster.
- Washington added veteran DE Von Miller this offseason and drafted CB Trey Amos in the second round, in addition to trading for WR Deebo Samuel.
- The Commanders should be able to control the trajectory of this game via sustained drives and increased time of possession. WR Terry McLaurin missed most of camp and all of preseason as he sought a new contract, eventually signing an extension to remain with the team.
How new york Will Try To Win ::
Russell Wilson theoretically gives the Giants a sense of stability under center that they truly haven’t had for some time. Daniel Jones has a career 70-to-47 TD:INT ratio and just 14,582 yards through six professional seasons, which works out to about 2,430 yards per season passing. Jones was also borderline incapable of delivering a quality deep ball, whereas Wilson has remained such an integral part of the league for so long because of his deep ball. Offensive coordinator Mike Kafka and head coach Brian Daboll enter their fourth season together with the Giants, but their seats have to be feeling quite hot currently. I would not be surprised to see ownership make some in-season changes amongst the brass if the Giants flounder out of the gates. General manager Joe Schoen also joins that discussion. In other words, I view this coaching staff as coaching for their collective jobs this season. Daboll and Kafka’s offense has been characterized by 11-personnel alignments, an outside zone running scheme, and layered dagger, smash, and dig routes underneath to spring deep passing. On the other side of the ball, Abdul Carter is going to be a problem in this league for a long time. His freakish athleticism, strong base, and lightning quickness should work well in conjunction with an aggressive secondary that played elevated rates of single-high a season ago (64.6%). The Giants understandably went much more zone-heavy in the two meetings with the Commanders last season, playing zone at a 69.8% frequency and single-high at a 54.0% frequency. I would expect more of the same here.
Tyrone Tracy took over this backfield from Week 5 on last season, which coincided with an injury to Devin Singletary. What holds him back the most is a combination of previous tendencies and the addition of rookie Cam Skattebo. First off, Tracy was responsible for only 33.3% of the carries inside the five during his 13-game stretch as the unquestioned lead back, leading to a rather pedestrian 13.2 expected fantasy points per game during that timeframe. Skattebo was theoretically brought in to serve as the clear passing down back and goal line back, which further caps Tracy’s ceiling. That said, Skattebo missed multiple weeks of camp while dealing with a hamstring injury, one that he aggravated once already. Even so, Singletary is still with the team, and I expect him to contribute in a complementary role. All of that to say, we’re likely looking at a three-headed timeshare with Tracy in the early-down role, Singletary in the change of pace role, and Skattebo in a clearly defined pass down plus goal line role. That leaves very little room for ceiling to develop from any of the three, regardless of the matchup against a Commanders defense that was much more stout against the pass than the run a season ago.
The pass game remains a “Malik Nabers and then everyone else” affair after the Giants returned all primary skill position players from last year. They integrated Wan’Dale Robinson into the offensive structure with heavy rates of short area routes, mostly designed to give the opposing defense something to account for rather than generate any meaningful upside for Robinson. Darius Slayton continues to run heavy rates of deep routes on the perimeter, while second-year tight end Theo Johnson should see his snap rate increase based on the emphasis on 11-personnel. Slayton carries a theoretical ceiling, one that is likelier to hit on a weekly basis, considering the strengths of Wilson. All of that to say, this offense is heavily designed to generate space for Nabers, and we shouldn’t expect much to change considering the state of this roster.
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