Battle Royale 11.23

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

Welcome to Week 11!

If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is my review of the top Battle Royale rosters in 2021 and 2022.

For this week, I’ll be hitting on some of my thoughts on each position and updating some trending stats. Let’s get started!

Looking at Week 11

In my early drafting to begin the week, I’m noticing I have never gone against ADP so consistently and widely as for this slate. Many of the higher ADP options are coming with workload and matchup questions, while a ton of players with 1st place upside are going undrafted or super late. I’d expect some of these guys to climb over the course of the week, but for the most part, it will remain similar due to UD’s projections (outside of a few guys like Achane, who has already climbed 3+ rounds). This is the easiest slate to get unique as I’ve ever seen in this contest.

QB:

Notable QBs missing from the slate: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts

Top 6 QBs by ADP: Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, CJ Stroud, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy

Big dogs are mostly absent here. Find ways to stack as the winning roster almost always is going to have a QB stack. When it doesn’t, it’s usually because of an elite QB who couldn’t be paired with his best player, and/or who scored a lot of rushing points.

Notes:

• Brock Purdy vs TB: While I do think Purdy has more value in the 12-person drafts, he’s still worth mentioning due to a matchup at home that typically provides an uptick in pass attempts. Purdy had 2+ TDs in 10/11 starts before the 3-week tough stretch leading into last week’s easier matchup (in which he had 3 TDs). The entire offense is healthy again and Purdy has 4 TDs in his range of outcomes here. Played across from Mike Evans is a way to bet on a little more aggression from the SF offense as well.
• Matthew Stafford vs SEA: He’s free and both his receivers are discounted in a matchup against a defense a little overrated and away from their significant home field advantage. Carroll’s SEA defense has struggled against the Rams offense throughout the McVay era, and this year’s iteration is easier to pass on than to run on. Stafford hasn’t popped yet this year in fantasy, largely due to a lack of TDs, but he’s been quarterbacking at an elite level.
• Justin Fields @ DET: Before getting hurt vs MIN, Fields was coming off two monster fantasy games. DET has allowed some big QB games this year despite being an improved defense overall (fighting some injuries as well), and last year allowed Fields to *rush* for 279 yards and 2 TDs in two matchups. 4 of the 5 highest drafted QBs in best ball are off this slate, and Fields comes with one of the highest ceilings at the position in the last round.

RB:

Notable RBs missing from this slate: Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, D’Andre Swift, Isiah Pacheco, Javonte Williams, Joe Mixon, Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara

I’ve personally been passing on most of the top ADP RBs due to matchup and workload concerns. MIA and DET backfields both come with tons of upside, but also some workload uncertainty. If selecting an RB with a pass-game role, stacking with QB can almost always give you a unique combination.

Notes:

• Tony Pollard @ CAR: Well last week was as sad as it has been all season. But, at a heavy discount on a week with a lot of the high ADP RBs on the slate dealing with matchup or usage questions, Pollard still remains enticing as part of this elite offense with a dream matchup on the ground.
• Devin Singletary vs ARI: If Dameon Pierce remains out, there’s no reason Singletary won’t be force fed again in a good matchup and game environment that HOU is favored in at home. I prefer him in the 12-person drafts given how much deeper RB is this week than last, but his rush attempt expectation would likely be one of the highest on the slate with Pierce absent. Lead RB rush attempts vs ARI by week: 19, 17, 23, 20, 25, 20, 26, 19, 20, 22.
• Austin Ekeler @ GB: He’s RB2 on the week behind CMC for a reason so he’s not going overlooked, but Ekeler is one of my favorite plays on the whole slate given his usage expectation, matchup, and RZ efficiency. The floor and ceiling are both solid in this spot.

WR:

Notable WRs missing from this slate: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Courtland Sutton, Michael Pittman, Drake London, Chris Olave

Scroll down, scroll down, scroll down! Don’t be a slave to ADP, as there is lots of upside deeper in drafts. This is as strong of a week to scroll down as there has been given the players going undrafted.

Notes:

• Brandon Aiyuk vs TB: I have no idea how Aiyuk is going so overlooked this week (last-round ADP) and why Deebo is going ahead of him despite Aiyuk being the more consistent scorer when both are playing. This matchup tilts to the air in a way that favors Aiyuk, and SF has the 2nd highest total on the slate.
• Mike Evans @ SF: SF has allowed 5 WRs to top 100+ yards, and allowed big games to several others as well. Evans is Mayfield’s preferred target, gets chances deep every week, and TB should have to throw a lot in this game due to SF’s tough defensive front and the likelihood of falling behind in this game.
• Christian Kirk vs TEN: TEN continues to struggle vs WRs, and Kirk has been by far the most consistent JAC WR. Kirk doesn’t come with the biggest ceiling, but this sets up nicely for a strong outing from him or Ridley, and both are completely free (going undrafted).
• Nico Collins vs ARI: Noah Brown has been missing practice while Collins has said he’s playing. Dell is among the highest-drafted WRs on the slate, so Collins provides leverage off him in the last round in a good game environment. HOU is one of the few teams implied for 26+ points.

TE:

Notable TEs missing from this slate: Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, TJ Hockenson, Kyle Pitts

There will be times when it burns me (like last week thanks to a 66 yard TD), but I am likely to go significantly underweight Kittle almost every time the entire SF offense is healthy due to his lack of usage with everyone in the lineup. And with all the other elite TEs off the slate, we are basically sifting through a group of TEs that average around 5 targets a game. I will be focusing on TEs that fit the game environments I’m building around in a particular draft to strengthen my bet on that game.

Notes:

• Trey McBride @ HOU: HOU has given up solid production to TEs, and the style of defense sets up better for how McBride is used. McBride has been heavily involved since the Ertz injury and appears to be breaking out in his 2nd year.
• Evan Engram vs TEN: Engram has 7+ targets every week since Week 1, giving him one of the best floors at the position. He has yet to score a TD on the season, but he caught 4 in this offense last year, including a 162 yard, 2 TD game vs TEN.
• Dalton Kincaid vs NYJ: Playing the Jets defense is an overall unfavorable matchup, but Kincaid has maybe the highest target expectation at the position on the slate.
• Cole Kmet @ DET: Kmet feasted on this matchup in 2022, and DET has been below average vs TEs. Kmet caught 3 TDs in Fields’ last two full games and he’s received 25 targets over the last 3 weeks. With DET being tougher on the ground and solid vs 1st-read targets, Kmet probably has the best setup here even above Moore, and is the likeliest to push DET’s aggressiveness on the other side.
• Luke Musgrave vs LAC: The LAC defense has been victimized by TEs all year, and Musgrave already has 4 games of 50+ yards in his rookie season. GB passing matchup sets up better than the rushing matchup. (This is more of a 12-person draft play if betting on this game environment).

Underowned Combos:

• Geno Smith + DK Metcalf + Jahan Dotson
• Sam Howell + Logan Thomas/Terry McClaurin + DK Metcalf/Kenneth Walker
• Jared Goff + Sam LaPorta + Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jahmyr Gibbs
• Justin Herbert + Austin Ekeler + Gerald Everett + (DET RB)
• Dak Prescott + Tony Pollard + Jake Ferguson
• Brock Purdy + Christian McCaffrey + Jaguar
• Kyler Murray + Trey McBride/Marquise Brown + Falcon
• Joe Burrow + Joe Mixon + Dalton Schultz

Notable Stats

These are some notable stats from rosters appearing in the top 5 of the contest so far this season.

1st place performance:

• 32 of the 46 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 20 of the 46 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 42 of the 46 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

Stacking and Correlation:

• 26 of 46 had a QB paired with just one teammate
  • WR (19), TE (5), RB (2)
• 7 of 46 had a QB stacked with two teammates
  • WR-RB (4), WR-WR (2), WR-TE (1)
• 5 of those 33 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
• 45 of 46 had at least one game correlation
• 14 of 46 had two different game correlations

FLEX usage:

• 153 of 230 top-5 rosters have had two RBs, meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
• 76 of the other top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there’s only been one instance of double-TE to ever finish top-5 (2023 W7: Kelce/Andrews). 

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!