The Texans went from being the hot team of the NFL heading into 2024 to an overhaul to the offense for the 2025 season. The additions at offensive coordinator, offensive line, receiver and running back are chief among the changes.
QB: CJ Stroud
C.J. Stroud enters a pivotal Year 3 this season, following a season in which he threw 3 fewer touchdowns and 7 more interceptions. Stroud threw 10 touchdowns and 8 interceptions over the last 11 games of 2024 with a 5-6 record while completing only 59.9% of his passes for an average of 196 yards per game. This came after starting the year 5-1 over the first six games while completing 68% of his passes for more than 263 ypg with 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
Through two seasons, Stroud has thrown for 18 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions when playing against the AFC South. Against the rest of the NFL, he’s thrown for 25 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Expect an improved season over 2024 but not a leap to the upper echelon of prolific passers. I project that he’ll finish his third NFL season around 26 TDs / 9 INTs.
RB: Joe Mixon
Mixon has hovered around 4.0 ypc each season over his last six seasons, never topping 4.1 ypc in a year since his 2018 season, when he averaged 4.9 ypc. In the three seasons he played more than six games in between 2018-21, he ran for between 1,100-1,200 yards. His last three years, he’s been more of an 800-1,000 yard rushing back.
RB: Nick Chubb
Chubb joined the Texans this year after playing his first 7 years in the NFL with the Browns. The last 2 seasons Chubb has only managed to play in 10 games out of 34. After a severe knee injury in 2023 cost him the last 15 games on the year and the first 6 games of 2024, he returned to the field for 8 games before breaking his foot and missing the final 3 games.
Chubb averaged 3.3 ypc last year. That was down a full 2.0 ypc from his career average entering the year of 5.3. From 2020-2024 he has 1 full season (2022). He missed 5 games in 2020, 3 in 2021, 15 in 2023 and 9 games last year. Despite being a bigger back, he only had 2 seasons out of 7 in which he surpassed 230 carries. He would go on to miss 5+ games following both of those seasons.
RB: Woody Marks
The addition of rookie Woody Marks to the backfield should continue to hurt Mixon’s receiving role out of the backfield, which saw him record 20 less receptions last year in Houston with 36, after averaging 56 over his last two seasons with the Bengals. Marks led all of FBS in receptions in back-to-back years as a freshman (60) and sophomore (83). In total he had four collegiate seasons with 47+ receptions.
Mixon is the power and consistency at running back, Chubb is the insurance but if Marks can be trusted in pass protection, his blend of patience, quick cuts and shiftiness will offer a contrary style to the bigger backs.
WR: Nico Collins
If Nico Collins can play an entire season without injury, he’ll be in the conversation among the elite receivers in the NFL. The problem is he misses games every year:
WR: Christian Kirk
The departure of Stefon Diggs was met with the addition of Christian Kirk. Kirk has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career. Kirk missed nine games over his first three seasons and 14 over his last two.
Sandwiched between those stretches were his two best years (‘21-’22) in which he averaged 81 / 1,045 / 7 while playing in 34 of 34 games (28 starts). Kirk should finish his first season in Houston around 60 / 700 / 3.
WR: Tank Dell
Dell may miss all of 2025 after suffering an injury that cost him the last three games of 2024 after missing six games in his rookie season of 2023. Houston drafted two rookie receivers from Iowa State in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to come in and help fill the holes left by Diggs departure and Dell’s injury.
WR: Jayden Higgins
Higgins is a big-body possession receiver who catches well but struggles to separate. NFL man coverage will cause an adjustment period for him but he will produce more quickly against zone coverage.
He could have a slow start to the beginning of his career, similar to Nico Collins who only caught one touchdown as a rookie, had a 55% catch rate and no games where he reached 70 receiving yards. Higgins rookie season should finish around 35 / 400 / 3.
WR: Jaylin Noel
Noel will produce in a multitude of ways. Houston could have him catch routes out of the backfield or stretch defenses with jet sweeps and drags. The Texans could utilize the rookie on returns as well as having him be the main replacement to Dell’s role as an energizer to the offense.
TE: Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz has appeared to regress every year since his peak of 2021 in which he put up 78 / 800 / 8 on 75% catch rate. Last year he started two more games than he did in 2022 and 2023, yet caught three less touchdowns than he did in each of those years while seeing his catch rate drop to 62%. I wouldn’t expect more than 55 / 550 / 3.
TE: Cade Stover
Houston traded up in the fourth round of the draft in 2024 to add Cade Stover to the tight end group. He will be utilized a lot more in his second season in the pros after his snap count steadily increased over his rookie season, along the same time that Schultz snaps were diminishing.
BREAKOUT PLAYER: Jaylin Noel
Noel is primed to leap out as a rookie, similar to what Houston saw from Tank Dell a couple of years ago. He’ll contribute immediately in a multitude of ways. Dell put up 47 / 709 / 7 as a rookie in 11 games. While Noel may not hit those numbers in 11 games, I would expect him to hit them on the season.
The injury history of Collins and Kirk, combined with a regressing Schultz, should allow Noel the opportunity to see 55 receptions.
BUST: Jayden Higgins
Higgins is 6’4, 214 pounds, runs 4.4 speed with a 39 inch vertical jump. We live in the instant gratification era and fans will expect these rookies to play to their ceiling immediately, especially for a young man who just missed being a first-round pick by a couple of selections. Higgins will take some time, just as it took Collins a few years to develop.
SLEEPER: Cade Stover
Stover should continue to take more snaps away from Schultz while also increasing more 12-personnel reps as Houston is limited in top options. Stover provides another capable blocker on the edges of an offensive line that struggled mightily last year and has replaced their top tackle with a lesser talent.
Stover will see increased targets while Schultz sees a decline. Jordan working back from an ACL injury should restrict his potential and what all he’s asked to take on. Stover can be a movable piece that sees receptions from the H-back position or inline. In year two his numbers will jump to 40 / 450 / 4.
BOLD PREDICTION: Joe Mixon
Out of all of the active NFL running backs currently on a roster, only Derrick Henry has more career carries than Joe Mixon. Mixon plays with an overtly physical running style. In 2025, he’ll fail to reach 200 touches due to injuries.
