Week 6 Matchups

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
24.25) at

Titans (
27.75)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
23rd DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
11th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
8th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
2nd DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
16th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
23rd DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
8th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

by JM >>

The Texans didn't change a whole lot last week, but they've been looking better as their schedule has softenedTennessee sets up well to attack with their preferred style in this onePoints are likely to be scored in this spot, with more question marks in that department on the Houston side than the Tennessee sideI didn't come into this game expecting it to pop in tourneys; but points should be scored here, and there are interesting leverage angles to play around with

How Houston Will Try To Win ::

There wasn’t really . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Browns (
23.5) at

Steelers (
26.5)

Over/Under 50.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Browns Run D
20th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
14th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
19th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
12th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
1st DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
7th DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
23rd DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Cleveland vs Pittsburgh is an enticing real-life matchup; but the styles of these two teams may not quite turn "enticing in real-life" into "a fantasy gold mineExpect Cleveland to attack on the ground, while Pittsburgh should tilt toward the passThere are some ways in which this game could turn into a true shootout, but that is not the likeliest scenario

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Rather laughably, there is a major fantasy/NFL outlet that has repeatedly referred to this game as a “likely shootout.” Both of these teams are capable . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
28.25) at

Eagles (
18.25)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
2nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
25th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
7th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
29th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
15th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
5th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
29th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
19th DVOA/31st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Baltimore, as we know, prefers to lean on the run; but Philly (as we also know) consistently tilts opponents to the airPhilly has also been taking to the air, and Baltimore has been forcing opponents to passThere isn't much to like in this game in fantasy; but there are a couple pieces in this game that can be considered out of proportion to what else is available in this particular spot

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

How, indeed. Philly's defense ranks 29th in pass DVOA…and while they rank a middling . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 18th 1:00pm Eastern

WFT (
20.5) at

Giants (
21.5)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Washington Run D
17th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Washington Pass D
6th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
29th DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Giants Run D
15th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Washington Run O
21st DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
23rd DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Washington Pass O
32nd DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

by Hilow >>

Likely fast-paced, ugly football game, with each offensive line outmatched by the opposing defensive lineInstead of “How each team will try to win,” it should honestly be read as “How Washington will try to win and how New York will try not to lose;” this statement will make sense as you read onWashington have seven total takeaways to eight turnovers, New York have six total takeaways to nine total turnovers

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Over the last two weeks, this Washington Football Team has looked a lot like the 2019 version . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Falcons (
24.75) at

Vikings (
28.25)

Over/Under 53.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
2nd DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
30th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
20th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
27th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
26th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
8th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
16ths DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The matchup sets up better for the Vikings through the air than on the ground; but unless the Falcons jump out to a lead, the Vikings should continue playing like the VikingsThe Falcons don't set up all that well in this spot to "jump out to a lead"There are going to be points scored in this game; but similar to what we explored in last week's Carolina // Atlanta game :: it may not quite be the fireworks display some will be expectingNevertheless: there are a couple pieces that stand out for our . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
28) at

Jaguars (
25)

Over/Under 53.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
30th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
17th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
12th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
21st DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
22nd DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
13th DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
32nd DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
19th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Detroit wants to lean toward the run, but they do so to set up downfield passing, and this is a good spot for Detroit through the airJacksonville has not had many opportunities this year to run their preferred style of offenseWhether or not the Jags are in position to run their preferred style of offense is the big story in this gameThis game has a few more ways that it can break poorly than some other spots; but if things break well, there's plenty of potential in this one

How Detroit Will Try . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
19.25) at

Colts (
26.75)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
23rd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
22nd DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
16th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
15th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
6th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
27th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
3rd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
26th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Clear mismatch for the Colts defense vs Bengals offenseLikeliest scenario has the Colts controlling the game on both sides of the ballWeekly volume tough to predict for the Colts, who have a very wide range of outcomes when looking at their offensive plays run from scrimmage to dateNot many clear-cut cases to be made when looking for DFS goodness out of this game

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

We’ve seen this Cincinnati team attempt to control time of possession as the season has gone on, trying to get Joe Mixon involved . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Bears (
21.5) at

Panthers (
23.5)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
11th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
16th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
2nd DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
11th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
26th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
13th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
24th DVOA/23rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

by Hilow >>

At first glance, many will pass this game over entirely for DFS purposes, but we have a concentrated offense on both sides of the ballBears defense that limits opposing time of possession vs Panthers offense ranked 6th in the NFL in third down conversion rateVery clear avenues of attack for each offense (as in, what the offense wants to do matches up well with what the opposition will let them do)Misconceptions on the Bears side of the ball sure to bias ownership projections

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

Misconceptions are going to . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Broncos (
17.5) at

Patriots (
27.5)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
5th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
3rd DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
9th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
27th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
18th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
20th DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
17th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
31st DVOA/27th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

With a handful of injuries to the Broncos offense, expect a concentrated attack utilizing 11-personnel base sets, with Melvin Gordon (in my opinion, it is likely Gordon plays this week after hearing his coach’s words on the DUI situation on Thursday) seeing 60-65% offensive snaps, Phillip Lindsay 35-40% offensive snaps, Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton 80-90% offensive snaps, Jerry Jeudy 70-75% offensive snaps, and Jake Butt/Nick Vannett splitting snaps roughly evenly (assuming Noah Fant misses, who is a true game time decision)Not much in the way . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 18th 4:05pm Eastern

Jets (
18.75) at

Dolphins (
28.25)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
31st DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
11th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
32nd DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
29th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
10th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
30th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Dolphins may lean a bit more run-heavy than normal as they control this game; but they may lean a bit more pass-heavy than most teams have against the JetsThe Jets are a mess, and will be looking to "Hurry up and run" once again in this oneThe Dolphins should control this game on offense, and the Jets should be playing from behind.There are a few pieces to consider in this game...and there is one piece I dove much deeper into than it turns out was necessary

How Miami Will . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 18th 4:25pm Eastern

Packers (
28.25) at

Bucs (
26.25)

Over/Under 54.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Packers Run D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
6th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
25th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
9th DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
3rd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
10th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
1st DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
6th DVOA/14th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Bucs have a really good defense...but the things that make them good are things that aren't as likely to create problems for Aaron Rodgers and the BucsThe Bucs don't have quite as good of an offense as the Packers have; but they also have a softer matchupThis game might go a bit overlooked(?), but it has very clear shootout potential

How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers have been clicking on offense this year, ranking first in overall DVOA while playing balanced both on early downs and overall . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 18th 8:20pm Eastern

Rams (
27) at

49ers (
24.5)

Over/Under 51.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Rams Run D
21st DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
9th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
11th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
17th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
49ers Run D
7th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
1st DVOA/10th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
22rd DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

After a sad start to Week 6 with no Thursday night game, the showdown season continues on Sunday night with the Rams visiting the 49ers in a 51.5 total game with the Rams favored by a field goal. If last week hadn’t happened, I imagine the 49ers would have been a small favorite, but the absolute implosion of Jimmy Garoppolo is fresh in people’s minds and will weigh heavily on how to think through this slate.

We’ll start with the Rams and leave the Jimmy G drama for later. The Rams are . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Oct 19th 5:00pm Eastern

Chiefs (
30.25) at

Bills (
24.75)

Over/Under 55.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
28th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
32nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
4th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
24th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
17th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
28th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
1st DVOA/7th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

Our first of two Monday night football games have the Chiefs visiting the Bills for a 57 total game with Kansas City favored by five. This is the highest total game in the week, and even after the Bills letdown game last Tuesday we should expect to see some fireworks.

On the Bills side, they’re expected to get Zack Moss back, which will eat into Devin Singletary’s workload. Early in the season, this was a 60/40 split in favor of Singletary, but we should be cautious here. Singletary looked absolutely atrocious on Tuesday . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Oct 19th 8:15pm Eastern

Cards (
27.25) at

Cowboys (
28.25)

Over/Under 55.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
10th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
18th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
10th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
22nd DVOA/1st Yards per pass
Cowboys Run D
29th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
21st DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
18th DVOA/19th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

Week 6 wraps up with Arizona visiting Dallas. The game total is currently at 55 and Arizona is, somewhat surprisingly to me, favored by a point. This game is honestly a bit hard to write up because I am so sad that Dak Prescott was hurt last week; he’s one of my favorite NFL players (and I used him in DFS every week). Andy Dalton takes the reins and we don’t yet know how that will impact the Dallas offense, but Vegas doesn’t seem to think by a whole lot. 

We’ll . . .

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