Week 16 Matchups


Kickoff Friday, Dec 25th 4:30pm Eastern

Vikings (
21.75) at

Saints (
28.25)

Over/Under 50.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
13th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass
Saints Run D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 16 starts on Christmas day with the Vikings visiting the Saints in a 51 total game with the Saints favored by a touchdown. The biggest news here is that Drew Brees made it back earlier than expected from his rib injury last week, sending Taysom Hill back to trick play relevance only, and Michael Thomas has been placed on injured reserve to let him heal up for the playoffs. 
On the Vikings’ side, the backfield is the Dalvin Cook show, as always. Cook has seen total opportunity counts (carries + targets) of 41, 26, and 29 . . .

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Kickoff Saturday, Dec 26th 1:00pm Eastern

Bucs (
33.75) at

Lions (
21.75)

Over/Under 55.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Slate Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Similar to our exploration of last week’s Saturday slate, the best way to visualize a small slate from a lineup-building perspective is to first think about the slate as a whole (establish chalk, the chalk build, where the field is likely to go) and then think about individual games and respective game flows. Building our lineups with this process allows us to pair DFS theory with Game Theory in a way that only a small portion of the field will be doing, giving us the highest expected value over time. 

With . . .

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Kickoff Saturday, Dec 26th 4:30pm Eastern

49ers (
21.25) at

Cards (
27.25)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Two offenses that would like to win the game on the groundCardinals are likely to be able to stick to this plan of attack, the Niners…well, not so much49ers playing with a third string quarterback and heavy injuries to both sides of the ballCould see the return of all-world tight end George Kittle, which would raise the chances at a close game here (not solely for his pass-catching chops, but for everything he means to this offense)

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

The Niners continue to be completely ravaged . . .

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Kickoff Saturday, Dec 26th 8:15pm Eastern

Dolphins (
26.25) at

Raiders (
23.75)

Over/Under 50.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Dolphins defense that has generated the most turnovers in the league (26) against a Raiders offense that has turned the ball over 21 timesKey injuries remain a concern for the Dolphins (Gaskin returns from the COVID-Reserve; all of DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, and Mike Gesicki remain questionable with limited practices to start the week)Dolphins should be able to attack any way they choose on offenseBoth teams rank bottom ten in the league in pace of play; likely to see lower than average offensive plays run from scrimmage here

How Miami Will Try . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 27th 1:00pm Eastern

Browns (
25.5) at

Jets (
19)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Cleveland is by no means a "pass-heavy offense," but they have allowed themselves to become far less run-heavy over their last month of playThe Jets, meanwhile, have entrenched themselves even more deeply in their maddeningly run-heavy waysClear advantages go to the Browns in this oneThere are definitely some interesting angles to consider on this game

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Over the last four weeks, the Browns have been throwing the ball on early downs with the score within seven points at a 54% clip, putting them slightly above the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 27th 1:00pm Eastern

Giants (
17) at

Ravens (
26.5)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Baltimore should be able to "try to win" in their standard manner: attacking heavily on the ground as they aim to play from in front from start to finishThe Giants will likely look to shorten this game as much as they can, before eventually having to change tracks; New York has the lowest Vegas-implied team total on the slateIt's likely we see the Ravens dominate in this oneBarring outlier game flow scenarios, there are only a few ways that "ceiling" games show up in this one

How Baltimore Will Try To Win . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 27th 1:00pm Eastern

Falcons (
21.25) at

Chiefs (
32.25)

Over/Under 53.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
20th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
22nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

There are likely to be a lot of misconceptions about this gameThere are also a lot of obvious factors from this game that the field can't help but get rightFortunately, there is plenty of flexibility in how we can profitably approach this one

How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

Let’s take a step back from what we think we know about the Falcons. Who are the Falcons, really?

They’re not an awful team defensively. They rank 12th in DVOA on defense (read that again if you need to; that’s . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 27th 1:00pm Eastern

Bears (
28) at

Jaguars (
19)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Bears carry one of the highest Vegas-implied team totals on the slateThe Jaguars carry one of the lowest Vegas-implied team totals on the slateThis game is unlikely to break toward a shootout, which lowers the raw ceiling across the board; but there are a few ways to consider playing things here

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

Since the start of Week 9, only five teams have run the ball at a higher rate on early downs with the score within seven points than the Bears, and this week — as they . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 27th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
19.25) at

Texans (
26.75)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Cincinnati has been in rough shape since Burrow went down, and even in a soft matchup, they don't set up particularly wellThe Texans set up very well here; and while a ceiling game will be difficult to find, production should certainly emerge from this spotExpect the Texans to control this one, with the Bengals' best path to victory being a game in which the Texans disappoint (rather than a game in which the Bengals find a new, unexpected offensive gear)

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Zac Taylor may yet turn into “an . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 27th 1:00pm Eastern

Colts (
21.75) at

Steelers (
20.75)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Little chance at this game truly opening up, with a “likeliest range of outcomes” ranging from Colts dominance to moderate-scoring back and forth affairBest chance for each team to move the ball is through the short area passing gameLikely to see fewer total possessionsNot a lot to love here

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Frank Reich offenses are historically one of the more opponent-specific and adaptable offenses over the last five years, capable of game planning and game managing in a way that looks to exploit the defensive deficiencies of the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 27th 4:05pm Eastern

Broncos (
22.5) at

Chargers (
25)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Chargers have a soft matchup against the Broncos' secondary, but there are still things this Broncos defense does wellOn offense, the Broncos have recently given up on trying to allow Drew Lock to win games for them, and it's once again likely that they try to lean toward the run in the early going hereThere's an interesting Tributary to consider here, and there are interesting elements to pay attention to outside that Tributary as well

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Broncos’ pass defense has fallen apart in recent . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 27th 4:05pm Eastern

Panthers (
21.5) at

WFT (
20.5)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Lots of injury news and various game approach scenarios for WashingtonLow likelihood of this game becoming high-scoring (backed up by the lowest Over/Under on the slate)Not a ton to love, but not a game to entirely ignore, either

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

What a week it’s been for the Washington Football Team (and that’s not even getting into the week it’s been for ownership). Dwayne Haskins beat James Harden to the “breaking Covid protocols by going to a strip club without a mask” mark, and is . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 27th 4:05pm Eastern

Rams (
23.25) at

Hawks (
24.75)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Two moderately paced teams with below average pass play ratesRams and Seahawks rank second and third, respectively, in yards allowed per carry; both teams are likeliest to attack on the groundRams overtake the Seahawks for NFC West lead with a victory; Seahawks clinch the NFC West with a victoryA game with high playoff implications in the NFC

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams pair a largely successful ground game with short passing in an offense designed to limit mistakes and win the time of possession battle (which makes a little more . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 27th 4:25pm Eastern

Eagles (
26.75) at

Cowboys (
23.75)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Two fast-paced offenses against two poor defensesBoth teams average over 70 offensive plays run from scrimmage; we’re likely to see an above average amount of total plays hereTwo teams with a combined nine wins still battling for a playoff spotJalen Hurts and his multi-dimensional game has breathed new life into this Philadelphia offense

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles have looked better offensively over the last two weeks than they have in a long time. Jalen Hurts has looked #good as a passer, adding the ability to gash teams . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 27th 8:20pm Eastern

Titans (
24.5) at

Packers (
27.5)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 16 wraps up with the Titans visiting the Packers for a 54 total game with Green Bay favored by a field goal. This should be a really fun game to watch; both of these teams have elite offenses and mediocre defenses (with Green Bay getting the edge on defense), so we should see them scoring plenty.

On the Tennessee side, the backfield belongs to Derrick Henry when the game is in question. Henry is one of the surest bets for 20+ carries per game; he’s averaging 23 and he’s only been below 20 . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Dec 28th 8:15pm Eastern

Bills (
27) at

Patriots (
20)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
This game might have been exciting if it was earlier in the year before Cam Newton fell apart, but in Week 16 this is a 46 total game with Buffalo favored by a touchdown. The Bills can do no worse than tie for first in the AFC East at this point, but obviously they want to win it and they still have playoff seeding implications, so we can expect all systems go for this one.
We’ll start with the Patriots backfield. The matchup here is reasonable against a Bills defense that ranks 18th in run . . .

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