XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 16 starts on Christmas day with the Vikings visiting the Saints in a 51 total game with the Saints favored by a touchdown. The biggest news here is that Drew Brees made it back earlier than expected from his rib injury last week, sending Taysom Hill back to trick play relevance only, and Michael Thomas has been placed on injured reserve to let him heal up for the playoffs. 
On the Vikings’ side, the backfield is the Dalvin Cook show, as always. Cook has seen total opportunity counts (carries + targets) of 41, 26, and 29 . . .

Slate Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Similar to our exploration of last week’s Saturday slate, the best way to visualize a small slate from a lineup-building perspective is to first think about the slate as a whole (establish chalk, the chalk build, where the field is likely to go) and then think about individual games and respective game flows. Building our lineups with this process allows us to pair DFS theory with Game Theory in a way that only a small portion of the field will be doing, giving us the highest expected value over time. 

With . . .

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Two offenses that would like to win the game on the groundCardinals are likely to be able to stick to this plan of attack, the Niners…well, not so much49ers playing with a third string quarterback and heavy injuries to both sides of the ballCould see the return of all-world tight end George Kittle, which would raise the chances at a close game here (not solely for his pass-catching chops, but for everything he means to this offense)

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

The Niners continue to be completely ravaged . . .

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Dolphins defense that has generated the most turnovers in the league (26) against a Raiders offense that has turned the ball over 21 timesKey injuries remain a concern for the Dolphins (Gaskin returns from the COVID-Reserve; all of DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, and Mike Gesicki remain questionable with limited practices to start the week)Dolphins should be able to attack any way they choose on offenseBoth teams rank bottom ten in the league in pace of play; likely to see lower than average offensive plays run from scrimmage here

How Miami Will Try . . .

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Cleveland is by no means a "pass-heavy offense," but they have allowed themselves to become far less run-heavy over their last month of playThe Jets, meanwhile, have entrenched themselves even more deeply in their maddeningly run-heavy waysClear advantages go to the Browns in this oneThere are definitely some interesting angles to consider on this game

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Over the last four weeks, the Browns have been throwing the ball on early downs with the score within seven points at a 54% clip, putting them slightly above the . . .

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Baltimore should be able to "try to win" in their standard manner: attacking heavily on the ground as they aim to play from in front from start to finishThe Giants will likely look to shorten this game as much as they can, before eventually having to change tracks; New York has the lowest Vegas-implied team total on the slateIt's likely we see the Ravens dominate in this oneBarring outlier game flow scenarios, there are only a few ways that "ceiling" games show up in this one

How Baltimore Will Try To Win . . .

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

There are likely to be a lot of misconceptions about this gameThere are also a lot of obvious factors from this game that the field can't help but get rightFortunately, there is plenty of flexibility in how we can profitably approach this one

How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

Let’s take a step back from what we think we know about the Falcons. Who are the Falcons, really?

They’re not an awful team defensively. They rank 12th in DVOA on defense (read that again if you need to; that’s . . .

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Bears carry one of the highest Vegas-implied team totals on the slateThe Jaguars carry one of the lowest Vegas-implied team totals on the slateThis game is unlikely to break toward a shootout, which lowers the raw ceiling across the board; but there are a few ways to consider playing things here

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

Since the start of Week 9, only five teams have run the ball at a higher rate on early downs with the score within seven points than the Bears, and this week — as they . . .

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Cincinnati has been in rough shape since Burrow went down, and even in a soft matchup, they don't set up particularly wellThe Texans set up very well here; and while a ceiling game will be difficult to find, production should certainly emerge from this spotExpect the Texans to control this one, with the Bengals' best path to victory being a game in which the Texans disappoint (rather than a game in which the Bengals find a new, unexpected offensive gear)

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Zac Taylor may yet turn into “an . . .

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Little chance at this game truly opening up, with a “likeliest range of outcomes” ranging from Colts dominance to moderate-scoring back and forth affairBest chance for each team to move the ball is through the short area passing gameLikely to see fewer total possessionsNot a lot to love here

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Frank Reich offenses are historically one of the more opponent-specific and adaptable offenses over the last five years, capable of game planning and game managing in a way that looks to exploit the defensive deficiencies of the . . .

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Chargers have a soft matchup against the Broncos' secondary, but there are still things this Broncos defense does wellOn offense, the Broncos have recently given up on trying to allow Drew Lock to win games for them, and it's once again likely that they try to lean toward the run in the early going hereThere's an interesting Tributary to consider here, and there are interesting elements to pay attention to outside that Tributary as well

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Broncos’ pass defense has fallen apart in recent . . .

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Lots of injury news and various game approach scenarios for WashingtonLow likelihood of this game becoming high-scoring (backed up by the lowest Over/Under on the slate)Not a ton to love, but not a game to entirely ignore, either

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

What a week it’s been for the Washington Football Team (and that’s not even getting into the week it’s been for ownership). Dwayne Haskins beat James Harden to the “breaking Covid protocols by going to a strip club without a mask” mark, and is . . .

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Two moderately paced teams with below average pass play ratesRams and Seahawks rank second and third, respectively, in yards allowed per carry; both teams are likeliest to attack on the groundRams overtake the Seahawks for NFC West lead with a victory; Seahawks clinch the NFC West with a victoryA game with high playoff implications in the NFC

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams pair a largely successful ground game with short passing in an offense designed to limit mistakes and win the time of possession battle (which makes a little more . . .

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Two fast-paced offenses against two poor defensesBoth teams average over 70 offensive plays run from scrimmage; we’re likely to see an above average amount of total plays hereTwo teams with a combined nine wins still battling for a playoff spotJalen Hurts and his multi-dimensional game has breathed new life into this Philadelphia offense

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles have looked better offensively over the last two weeks than they have in a long time. Jalen Hurts has looked #good as a passer, adding the ability to gash teams . . .

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 16 wraps up with the Titans visiting the Packers for a 54 total game with Green Bay favored by a field goal. This should be a really fun game to watch; both of these teams have elite offenses and mediocre defenses (with Green Bay getting the edge on defense), so we should see them scoring plenty.

On the Tennessee side, the backfield belongs to Derrick Henry when the game is in question. Henry is one of the surest bets for 20+ carries per game; he’s averaging 23 and he’s only been below 20 . . .

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
This game might have been exciting if it was earlier in the year before Cam Newton fell apart, but in Week 16 this is a 46 total game with Buffalo favored by a touchdown. The Bills can do no worse than tie for first in the AFC East at this point, but obviously they want to win it and they still have playoff seeding implications, so we can expect all systems go for this one.
We’ll start with the Patriots backfield. The matchup here is reasonable against a Bills defense that ranks 18th in run . . .