Week 10 Matchups

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00:00 :: Eagles // Giants
08:30 :: Jags // Packers
18:35 :: WFT // Lions
29:18 :: Texans // Browns
39:35 :: Bucs // Panthers
53:42 :: Broncos // Raiders
63:55 :: Bills // Cardinals
73:59 :: Chargers // Dolphins
83:48 :: Bengals // Steelers
91:51 :: 49ers // Saints
101:09 :: Seahawks // Rams

Week 9 Recap, 2020

With JM, Scott Barrett, and Graham Barfield


Kickoff Thursday, Nov 12th 8:20pm Eastern

Colts (
25) at

Titans (
24)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Somehow we’re already in Week 10 and I’m already dreading the end of NFL season. But, here we are, and the week starts with the Colts visiting the Titans for a 48.5 total game with Tennessee favored by two points. 
We’ll start with the Indianapolis running game. The Colts want to be a run-heavy team, ranked 22nd in situation-neutral pass rate and only throwing 44% of the time when they have a lead of at least a touchdown, but they are one of the most game script sensitive teams . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 15th 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
24.75) at

Giants (
20.25)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

Surprisingly, the Giants set up well to dictate the flow of this game, which likely means a slow, grind-it-out game entering the fourth quarterKey members of the Eagles’ offense likely to returnNot a ton to love from a likeliest scenario standpoint, with little chance at a tributary game flow to develop with how conservative the Giants have been

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles have stubbornly maintained their offensive game plan this season through all the struggles with healthy (or lack thereof) personnel and regardless of matchup. Does the opponent . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 15th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
16.75) at

Packers (
30.25)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Packers set up well to control this game against one of the NFL's bottom-tier teamsThe Jags are going to have to maneuver a difficult obstacle course to keep pace in this oneThe Packers are the largest favorite on the slate, and should be able to pull away steadily from the start of this gameNothing in this game approaches "roster lock" territory, but there are certainly some pieces to consider

How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::

Since the start of last year, only the Chiefs (20 wins) and Ravens (20 wins . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 15th 1:00pm Eastern

WFT (
21.25) at

Lions (
24.25)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

Almost two and a half minutes of missing possession time (Detroit struggles to get off the field on defense while Washington struggles with turnovers)Balanced (and spread) offense for Detroit, with a tight range of expected pass attempts for Matthew StaffordConcentrated (but low upside) offense for Washington with Alex Smith at quarterbackOverall not a ton to like from this game

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington has maintained their aggressive nature on offense paired with their lockdown secondary on defense. Their cornerbacks have allowed the lowest overall QBR in coverage this season, with . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 15th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
20.5) at

Browns (
25)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Browns have not made any secret about how they want to win. They're best equipped to win on the ground...and that's a great way to attack Houston.The Texans have not made any secret about how they want to win. They're best equipped to win through the air...and that's a great way to attack Cleveland.The Browns should win this game, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll control it throughout.One side of the ball has some plays that could yield big fantasy scores, but . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 15th 1:00pm Eastern

Bucs (
27.75) at

Panthers (
21.75)

Over/Under 49.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

Bucs should have no problem picking apart a defense playing the highest rate of zone coverage in the league; almost more importantly, the Panthers should be able to keep pressure on the Bucs to remain aggressiveMany, many mouths to feed on offense for the Bucs; concentrated offense for the PanthersExpect both teams to lean pass-heavy, with emphasis on short-intermediate work for each sidePossibly the top value on the slate comes from this game, with Christian McCaffrey looking doubtful

How Tampa Bay Will Try To Win ::

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers likely have . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 15th 4:05pm Eastern

Broncos (
23.75) at

Raiders (
26.75)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Raiders are set in their ways when it comes to how they want to win games...even when the game in question calls for them to attack in a different wayThe Broncos don't have a difficult matchup here, but they are capable of turning soft matchups into difficult spots for their offenseThere isn't much "certainty" in this one, in terms of targeting elite DFS scores; but that doesn't mean this game should be written off altogether

How Las Vegas Will Try To Win ::

There is plenty to like about Jon . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 15th 4:05pm Eastern

Bills (
26.5) at

Cards (
29.5)

Over/Under 56.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Bills and Cardinals should play to a high-scoring game...though while this game could very clearly/easily pop, there are more risks in this game than the field is likely to assumeEach team's plan of attack is fairly straightforward and easy to figure outThis game environment as a whole is attractive...but uncovering individual plays to isolate is less straightforward

How Buffalo Will Try To Win ::

One week after the Bills played the Seahawks (and three weeks after the Cardinals played the Seahawks), Bills vs Cardinals will battle Seahawks vs Rams . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 15th 4:05pm Eastern

Chargers (
22.5) at

Dolphins (
25)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

Injury-riddled backfields on both sidesMiami is set up extremely well to dictate the flow of this gameDolphins are most vulnerable over the middle of the field; likeliest scenario has Herbert once again attempting 40+ passesDolphins should have a highly concentrated pass offense, albeit with low expected volume

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

Fast pace and low pass rate on offense with a prevent defense has been the game plan all year for these Chargers, but over the past three weeks we’ve seen Anthony Lynn trust his rookie signal caller with . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 15th 4:25pm Eastern

Bengals (
19.5) at

Steelers (
26)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Steelers defensive front likely to control this game, which should filter volume to the Steelers ground attack and Bengals air attackLikeliest tributary would revolve around Big Ben and his ability to suit up, but the game plan for the Steelers is unlikely to change in that scenario; this would, however, affect the expected drive success rate for the Steelers enough to warrant mention (not enough for a full tributaries breakdown)Expect both teams to fall short of their season average in plays run from scrimmage, making the ancillary pieces of each team negligible

How . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 15th 4:25pm Eastern

49ers (
20) at

Saints (
29.5)

Over/Under 49.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
13th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass
Saints Run D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

If you think 2020 is a cursed year, try being the 49ersThe Saints have some similar philosophies to the 49ers...but they are much healthier, and are much better-equipped to succeed in this spotThe 49ers are going to have a difficult time keeping pace, and the Saints should be content to gradually grab and extend a leadThis strange slate rolls on, with a bit to like in this game, but nothing to really fall in love with

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

If you think 2020 has been a cursed year . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 15th 4:25pm Eastern

Hawks (
26.25) at

Rams (
28.75)

Over/Under 55.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Seahawks Run D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Seattle faces their toughest challenge of the season: taking on a Rams defense that forces the shallowest aDOT and has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns; the Rams like to force opponents to march the field, and Seattle likes to pick up chunk gainsSeattle also allows chunk gains...but the Rams are best equipped to win games by putting together drivesOne way or another, this game is likely to be close and high-scoring; but given the price tags and expected ownership on this spot, that doesn't necessarily make it the automatic slam-dunk . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 15th 8:20pm Eastern

Ravens (
25.25) at

Patriots (
18.75)

Over/Under 44.0

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Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Sunday night brings us my two least favorite teams to play in Showdown as the Ravens visit the Patriots. The game is currently sitting at a 43.5 total with the visiting Ravens touchdown favorites over the Patriots, who are fresh off of almost losing to the Jets. The reason these teams are my least favorite teams in Showdown is that it’s so damn hard to figure out where the ball is going. Your style may differ and you could certainly argue that a game like this is fantastic for tournaments, but personally, I like . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Nov 16th 8:15pm Eastern

Vikings (
23.5) at

Bears (
20.5)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 10 wraps up with the Vikings visiting the Bears. The game has a low 43.5 total with the Vikings favored by a field goal. Vegas expects a relatively low-scoring slugfest here. 
The Minnesota backfield has been the Dalvin Cook show as he has absolutely smashed the past couple of weeks. We know that Minnesota wants to run as much as they can. Kirk Cousins has only attempted 30 or more passes twice this season, and he threw a combined 34 passes in the last two games while Dalvin went absolutely nuclear; this is . . .

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