Published Sep 30, 2026 · 8:13 AM ET

Published Oct 1, 2026 · 3:24 PM ET

Updated Oct 2, 2026 · 9:47 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Keon Coleman did not practice Wednesday. Keep an eye on his status the rest of the week, but I currently and tentatively expect him to play against the Patriots.
• The Bills rank second in EPA/play while the Patriots rank 29th in EPA/play.
• QB Josh Allen took a helmet to the knee in the fourth quarter against the Chargers but is reportedly “fine.”
• New England ranks dead last in ARBY and has the sixth worst yards per carry through three games, although games against the Seahawks, Steelers, and Jaguars influence that data.
• The Patriots are in desperate need of a true alpha through the air – someone capable of winning in multiple areas of the field. Without one, they’re effectively left with a handful of role players.

HOW NEW ENGLAND WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Patriots are tied with the Dolphins for fewest points scored through three weeks. Before we enter full panic mode, some context. They started their season with games against the defending Super Bowl Champions on the road, a home game against a tenacious Steelers team, and a road game against the team with the best scoring margin since the middle of the 2025 season in the Jaguars. Furthermore, the Patriots were amongst the league’s healthiest teams during their improbable run to the Super Bowl a season ago and have seen injury variance swing hard in the opposite direction in 2026, having already lost 17 (!!!) players to either IR or through release with injury settlement. Through all that, the Patriots have allowed the sixth lowest explosive play rate on defense, per statrankings.com, continuing a trend under head coach Mike Vrabel of forcing opponents to march the field while eliminating splash plays. They want to slow the game down and force opponents to string together drives, while effectively forced to do the same on offense due to the absence of their primary downfield option in A.J. Brown. There are two primary issues with that setup: (1) Drake Maye has not played well through three games (34th in EPA/play), and (2) the Bills lead the league in scoring.

This backfield has been difficult to get a complete read on considering how different the situations in each game they’ve played have been. TreVeyon Henderson missed Week 1, during which Rhamondre Stevenson handled a true workhorse role. Then Henderson returned for Week 2 and saw a lead back role following an early Stevenson fumble. They were then blown out in Week 3 but it was Stevenson back in the lead role before starters were effectively pulled. It appears to be as if the Patriots want a true 1A-1B situation between Stevenson and Henderson, something that stands in stark contrast to what the general fantasy community thinks should happen. Sure, Henderson brings more per-touch upside, but he lacks the patience to get the yards that are blocked for him on a consistent basis, ranking highly in explosive rush rate but equally poor in stuff rate. Whereas Stevenson takes what is blocked for him and is more consistent on a down-to-down basis, albeit also accompanied by leading the league in fumbles the previous three-plus seasons. We saw both backs return usable fantasy weeks when the offense was humming last season but it’s been a completely different story through the offensive struggles in 2026, making both rather uninspiring options. Furthermore, the New England offensive line has been downright atrocious to begin the season, blocking to the lowest ARBY (yes, worse than the Packers, which is hard to fathom) while the backs have managed just 3.54 yards per carry, “good” for sixth worst in the league. The matchup is also far different than in years past, with the Bills holding opponents to the ninth lowest defensive ARBY and 12th lowest yards per carry (3.93). And sure, the Patriots have played three teams we expect to be stout against the run in the Seahawks, Steelers, and Jaguars, but it’s difficult to place all of the blame on their opponents.

Similar to the run game, this pass offense has looked completely lost through three games. The absence of A.J. Brown has created a void they have been unable to overcome or fill. The only true downfield threat, Kyle Williams, has been in a route on under 30 percent of the team’s pass plays because he is effectively a zero in the run game. Romeo Doubs has struggled with focus, to include improper routes and drops. Journeyman Mack Hollins has stuck in the league this long because he does all the nitty-gritty wide receiver stuff extremely well, but he’s not going to beat man coverage consistently and has little in the way of downfield chops. DeMario Douglas is effectively a slot-only option that sees the bulk of his routes confined to the short areas of the field. Hunter Henry remains a dangerous red zone threat but brings very little per-target upside in his age-32 season. It’s just become a sum-of-all-parts offense that has been Frankensteined together, badly needing an alpha for the offense to function properly. In other words, these are all role players, and the offense lacks structure without a true alpha that is capable of winning in multiple areas of the field. Doubs, Hollins, or Williams could theoretically put up a solid cost-considered game here, but there is no telling which of the three is most likely to, also accompanied by scary-low floors.

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Added Oct 1, 2026 · 1:47 PM ET

Updated Oct 2, 2026 · 10:04 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• RB Breece Hall, WR Adonai Mitchell, and TE Mason Taylor have yet to practice for the Jets, as of Thursday. All three look to be doubtful for Week 4.
• QB Caleb Williams and RB D’Andre Swift did not practice Thursday. Considering the team only held a walkthrough Wednesday, the status of Swift is big news Friday and into the weekend.
• Braelon Allen is going to pick up a lot of buzz this week. I am a little skeptical of his paths to a game you could not win without this week, regardless of matchup.

HOW NEW YORK JETS WILL TRY TO WIN::

The battered and bruised Jets got their first true test in a Week 3 loss to the Lions, taking them to the wire in a 31-24 loss on the road. We didn’t get a great look at the offense in a Week 1 win over the Titans nor did we in their Week 2 overtime loss to the Packers, a game they played on their terms throughout. Their trials and tribulations didn’t end in that loss to the Lions as they lost yet another starter in running back Breece Hall, entering Week 4 likely to be down their starting running back, a starting wide receiver in Adonai Mitchell, and their starting tight end in Mason Taylor. As we’ve talked about in the past with this team, they are a defense-first, disciplined team that is going to make every opponent they play execute throughout to beat them. That said, they finally have an offense that plays with structure and rhythm after one of the longest stretches of poor offensive hirings in recent history. Frank Reich aggression is largely limited by head coach Aaron Glenn in most situations, but this team can now really open up with purpose if forced to do so. It wasn’t until the second half that the Lions really forced them into increased aggression considering the two teams played to a scoreless first quarter, but we saw what they’re capable of with their backs against the wall. That is also something we could see more of this season considering their schedule, which continues with another NFC North showdown against the Bears.

22-year-old back Braelon Allen handled every running back opportunity following the departure of Hall late in Week 3, finishing with four carries and three targets in the loss to the Lions. Hall is expected to miss multiple games with a quadricep injury, leaving Allen in position to see a borderline-to-true workhorse role. Of note, Kene Nwangwu returned to a limited participant in practice Wednesday and has the experience to serve as the primary change of pace back, should he make his season debut. Isaiah Davis remains on hand for clear passing situations, although he has yet to play an offensive snap while being active in each game this season. This situation is all important to work through due to the matchup against a Chicago team allowing the highest defensive ARBY and third highest yards per carry (4.85) through three weeks. It isn’t all rainbows and unicorns, however, considering the Jets are blocking to the fifth lowest ARBY and whose backfield is averaging the fourth lowest yards per carry (3.20). We still want our backs to have paths to 100/2+, or enough receiving work to offset the need for multiple scores, and Allen’s path to that robust of a line is murky, at best.

Last week in a similar set up, only Garrett Wilson and Isaiah Williams were in a route at a rate greater than 56.5 percent (Kenyon Sadiq), with practice squad call-up Sterling Shepard, Braelon Allen, and tight end Jeremy Ruckert all between 53 percent and 37 percent. I would expect something similar against the Bears, with the possibility that Sadiq sees a bit more work with another week under his professional belt. But the big picture here is that the offense should remain highly concentrated amongst its remaining pass catchers, most notably Wilson. I also want to draw attention to the fact that the loss of Mitchell is massive for the structure of the offense. Losing his 15.8 aDOT effectively forces more congestion in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, something Sadiq helped to alleviate on seam routes last week (picture that diving catch on a seam route on his touchdown). Wilson is more of a hybrid-X-type receiver than the general fantasy community continues to view him as. Last week on The Slate, I compared him to Michael Pittman, which was somewhat hyperbole but also carried hidden truth. He is an immensely talented receiver that typically requires elite volume to return a GPP-worthy score at his salary, something he has now done only five times in his four-plus-year career (last week made it five games in which he eclipsed 25 DK points). We got onto him in that spot because it was the Lions, but this spot is a little different.

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Added Oct 1, 2026 · 10:59 PM ET

Updated Oct 2, 2026 · 9:53 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Andrei Iosivas is on IR, replaced by a combination of Mike Gesicki and Dohnte Meyers.
• The Jaguars maintain a relatively clean bill of health.
• Bengals G Dalton Risner has yet to practice (through Thursday) with a knee injury.
• Do not blindly follow accounts and places that are highlighting the recent hefty rush rate over expectation values the Jaguars have faced through three games – that narrative is missing massive amounts of context. That is not meant to call anyone out, but I’ve seen that as a major talking point in various places this week and I want to get the facts straight.
• The Jaguars have faced the second deepest aDOT and are allowing the highest explosive pass rate in the league (23.2 percent).
• This spot sets up really well for Tee Higgins and Parker Washington on paper.

HOW JACKSONVILLE WILL TRY TO WIN::

Liam Coen’s Jaguars have averaged 31.5 points per game in the 13 games since their bye in 2025, a mark that would have led the league in 2025 and would rank third through the early part of 2026. That scoring barrage has come while averaging just 62.0 plays per game (just over 59 plays per game through three weeks of 2026), meaning they have been one of the most efficient offenses in the league since their bye a season ago. In fact, only the three game stretch from the 49ers to start the 2026 season gives any other team in the league a more efficient stretch than what we’ve seen the Jaguars put together over their last 13 games. Their offense is layered, systematic, precise, and varied, with some of the league’s top situational tendencies and sequencing. They are one of only a handful of teams that looks to maximize scoring with each possession, more than happy to run up the score until late in games. Defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile had an interesting come-up in the league, learning under both Vic Fangio and Brian Flores, and he runs his defense by blending those two profiles. Mass deception, heavy blitz, elevated two-high rates, and a swarming nature to the ball come together to force disruption, something that can also expose the back end if pressure isn’t getting home.

The team continues to utilize a true 1A/1B backfield system, with Bhayshul Tuten now operating as the leader of that unit. Tuten has accounted for 57.1 percent of the available backfield opportunities (24th) while averaging a modest 16 opportunities per game. In fact, he has seen between 15 and 17 opportunities in all three games so far. On one hand, Tuten ranks near the top of the league in elusiveness, yards after contact per attempt, and rush EPA/play. On the other hand, it is extremely difficult to put up difference-making GPP scores on such modest volume. The Jacksonville offensive line is up to seventh in the league in ARBY while its backs are averaging 4.43 yards per carry, good for 11th in the league. Chris Rodriguez Jr. continues to operate as the primary change of pace and short yardage back but is averaging just under seven carries per game and has yet to be targeted through the air, while LeQuint Allen Jr. does not have a carry and has been targeted three times. Ameer Abdullah has joined the party as well this season, with the team carrying four backs on the game-day roster in each game played. That tells me they are not overly interested in a single back seeing massive weekly workloads in an attempt to keep all backs fresher for longer into the season. The Bengals are an interesting study when it comes to their rush defense after completely revamping their defensive line this offseason, including the addition of Dexter Lawrence at nose tackle. They have allowed the third lowest defensive ARBY but have surrendered the ninth highest yards per carry at 4.46. Consider it a neutral-to-negative matchup on the ground.

Parker Washington is the unquestioned alpha through the air, accounting for 0.33 TPRR (third), a 28.4 percent target share (fourth), and 3.3 YPRR (ninth), all while seeing only 23 targets through three games. Furthermore, the absence of Bengals starting slot corner Jalen Davis exposes the secondary over the middle of the field for a defense that already filtered targets to the intermediate areas of the middle of the field. Fill-in slot corner/safety Jordan Battle has defended 56 routes through three weeks while allowing 0.56 FP/R in coverage, fourth worst of primary defenders in 2026, per statrankings.com. He draws statranking’s top overall matchup on the weekend. Washington is in a smash spot on paper, as long as the volume cooperates within the game environment itself. Jakobi Meyers is the other player on the roster in a route on greater than 72 percent of dropbacks (tight end Brenton Strange), with Brian Thomas Jr. all the way down at 58.1 percent route participation. Meyers, BTJ, and Josh Cameron should see the most of lockdown corner DJ Turner II on the perimeter, with Meyers the player most likely to escape press/man coverage in that matchup.

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Added Oct 1, 2026 · 7:40 PM ET

Published Sep 30, 2026 · 7:42 PM ET

Game Overview

• This game has a massive range of outcomes. It pairs two veteran gunslingers against two weak pass defenses, but John Harbaugh doesn’t want a shootout
• Jacoby Brissett is good enough to keep his job but always loses. That’s a great recipe for fantasy points.
• Jeremiyah Love looked fully healthy last week
• Michael Wilson has dusted Marvin Harrison Jr. and the Cardinals offense looks like it did when Harrison was hurt last year
• Trey McBride has three straight games with double-digit targets
• Jameis Winston is being held back by Harbaugh’s conservative nature
• Cam Skattebo played 77% of the snaps last week
• Malik Nabers has a good matchup, but the Giants want to limit their passing volume.

How Arizona Will Try to Win

The 1-2 Cardinals come into Week 4 performing above expectations. 1-2 might not seem like a strong start, but when analysts were floating the possibility of going 0-17, it’s good. The Cardinals shocked the NFL by beating the Chargers Week 1, before getting stomped by the Seahawks and losing a competitive game against the 49ers. Most pundits had them getting killed in all three. The Cardinals are going to win some games this season. It’s incredible that Nathaniel “can’t” Hackett keeps getting work, but everyone consistently says he’s a very likeable guy. In fairness to Hackett, his offense has performed well in two out of three games and it’s hard to hold failure versus the Seahawks against him. The O-line has been respectable (21st ranked by PFF) and is better than most people thought coming into the season, especially on the left side. The Cardinals have been playing at a moderate pace (18th in seconds per play) but played faster last week (1st in neutral pace). It’s difficult to know if Hackett is button mashing, or deciding to speed up as a strategy, but it’s nice to know playing quickly is in the range of outcomes. The Cards have been leaning on the pass (9th in PROE), allowing Jacoby Brissett to attempt 52 passes last week. Brissett is on the Joe Flacco career arc. If coaches want to let him chuck the rock fifty times later in his career after becoming a journeyman, then Cardinals games are going to keep being good for fantasy.

The Giants defense has improved dramatically against the run (10th in DVOA) and is below average against the pass (21st in DVOA). John Harbaugh believes in stopping the run and made it a focus during the off season. His work turned the Giants into a mini pass funnel. It’s hard to know if Hackett will go after an opponent’s weakness. He is not always a rational coach, but he has been running a pass first offense on his own. There is a good chance he won’t make an adjustment when facing a defense that is more vulnerable through the air. The Cardinals got smacked for 67 points the past two weeks. No one is going to confuse the Giants offense for the Rams or the 49ers, but they can score, and the Cards are going to have to put up points to be competitive. The Cardinals lost against good competition, but they beat the only weak team they’ve faced. It’s a “house money” kind of season for them, and they’re going to be a fun bad team. Expect the Cardinals to play like they have nothing to lose, attacking with an up-tempo passing offense.

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Added Sep 30, 2026 · 7:42 PM ET

Published Oct 1, 2026 · 7:18 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• The Rams enter Week 4 with a disappointing 1-2 record and are looking to right the ship after a difficult schedule to open the season.
• Philadelphia is playing on a short week of rest after losing to the Bears on Monday Night Football in a game where the Eagles offense looked completely out of sorts.
• Los Angeles expects star receiver Puka Nacua to return to the field after a two game absence that was caused by a hip/groin injury he sustained in practice.
• The Rams lost their top two tight ends, Colby Parkinson and Terrance Ferguson, to injuries in Week 3 and both have yet to practice this week.
• Eagles star receiver DeVonta Smith missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday with a hamstring injury, leaving his status in doubt.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Rams season has been disappointing in the standings, but zooming out things are not as dire as they may seem. While a 1-2 record is far from what they envisioned entering the season, their two losses have been against very good teams in difficult environments. Playing two games without their best offensive player doesn’t help, either. After a disappointing opener in Australia for the entire team, Puka Nacua suffered a hip/groin injury in practice prior to Week 2 and missed the last two games. There were rumors that Nacua could be out long-term, but the team never put him on IR and he is back practicing now and expected to return for the trip to Philly. After losing to arguably the best team in the league right now (49ers) and getting hosed by a couple of late calls in Denver, the Rams can get back on track with a big road win over the Eagles. They play the Bills next week, but after that they have a soft schedule for the next several weeks. If the Rams can take care of business here, they can get right back on track with their Super Bowl aspirations. On the other hand, a loss would put them at 1-3 with a primetime matchup against Josh Allen on deck. Make no mistake, this is a huge game for the Rams rest of season outlook.

Los Angeles loves to use their tight ends in their offense and have one of the deepest rooms in the league, but that depth is being tested. Their top all-around tight end is Colby Parkinson, who left early with shoulder and knee injuries in Week 3, and their third best receiving option behind Puka Nacua and Davante Adams is second year tight end Terrance Ferguson – who is a matchup nightmare. Ferguson hurt his ankle in the first half of Week 3. Both Parkinson and Ferguson have yet to practice this week and are unlikely to play. Without them on the field, veteran Tyler Higbee stepped up with eight catches for 62 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets.

The tight end dynamic, along with the return of Nacua, puts the Rams in position to lean into a pass-heavy approach against an Eagles defense that just got picked apart by veteran journeyman Case Keenum. Nacua is a top-3 receiver when he is healthy and Davante Adams proved the last two weeks that he certainly still has the ability to be an elite receiver. The longest reception Adams had all of last season was 44 yards. He has a 49-yard and 64-yard reception in the last two games. Along with Adams and Nacua, the Rams saw Konata Mumpfield step up last week as another big play threat. The Eagles have serious talent in their interior defensive line and have given opponents fits on the ground this season. The Rams were 6th in EPA per rush in 2025 and 1st in rushing success rate. This year, they rank a lowly 26th in EPA per rush but still a respectable 7th in rushing success rate. Essentially this is telling us that their rushing has been consistently solid, but they are not breaking off the chunk runs we saw for much of 2025. This dynamic along with the hits to their tight end depth and the profile of the Eagles defense leads me to believe they will pass at a very high rate in this spot. Expect the Rams to be creative in how they approach this game and to find ways to move the ball through the air, with the priority being to play with a lead and force the Eagles offense to press.

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Added Oct 1, 2026 · 7:18 PM ET

Published Oct 1, 2026 · 8:22 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• The Packers have the Jets late-game incompetence to thank for avoiding an 0-3 record, and are coming off an embarrassing national TV loss to the Falcons.
• Green Bay’s running game has been the worst in the league as their offensive line play has been horrendous. Their passing game is becoming very concentrated.
• The Packers ability to sustain drives is likely to depend on whether they can handle the aggressive blitzes of the Bucs defense and if they can find a third weapon to go along with receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
• Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield will miss several weeks with a dislocated thumb and the Bucs will trot out undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels to start in his place.
• The Bucs rank 28th in yards per play through three weeks, although the Packers defense will be their softest opponent to date.

HOW GREEN BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::

The 2026 Green Bay Packers have been excruciating to watch. They have a 1-2 record and have faced a schedule of opposing quarterbacks that consists of Carson Wentz, Geno Smith, and Michael Penix Jr. – far from a murderer’s row. The Packers primary issues are a bottom-5 offensive line and they have a defense that is threading the needle of blitzing aggressively but not generating pressure. The offensive line issues and lack of backfield talent leads to struggling to sustain drives, which in turn leads to the defense being on the field a lot. When you put a talent-deficient defense on the field for long enough eventually they are going to break.

The Packers are averaging a putrid 3.0 yards per carry through three games. Week 1 against the Vikings is easy to dismiss as Minnesota’s defense always suffocates the run, but the Jets and Falcons in Weeks 2 and 3 are spots where if you can’t run the ball there it isn’t going to happen. Green Bay now goes on the road to face a Bucs defense allowing only 3.1 yards per rush attempt this season and one that under head coach Todd Bowles has historically taken pride in shutting down opposing running games. The simpler version of this is the Packers can’t run on anyone and the Bucs don’t let anyone run the ball, so this section is more about “how will the Packers try to pass” than anything.

The Packers lost WR Jayden Reed for the season to a scary neck injury suffered on the first play of their Week 2 win over the Jets. Speedy second year WR Matthew Golden is 14th in the NFL in target share at 24.2%, while WR Christian Watson is second in the NFL in “Dominator Rating” on statrankings.com, a statistic that measures a player’s share of yards and touchdowns. These two are both averaging 10 targets per game. In this spot against a sometimes shaky Bucs secondary and a situation where the Packers are highly unlikely to have success on the ground, the Packers receivers should be heavily involved once again. Skyy Moore and the “other” Packers receivers don’t offer much help. The true X-Factor for the Packers offense is tight end Tucker Kraft. The Bucs know the realities laid out above for the Green Bay offense – a lack of running game and reliance on their receivers. Kraft has resumed his every down role but has struggled so far, notably with some drops in Week 3, as he returns from last season’s torn ACL. The Bucs gave up some production to opposing tight ends in Weeks 1 and 2 before facing Kyler Murray in Week 3 (who literally isn’t tall enough to target players in that area of the field). There aren’t necessarily numbers or stats that point to a big game for Kraft, but the circumstances and his talent are such that he could be the spark the Packers are looking for.

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Added Oct 1, 2026 · 8:22 PM ET

Updated Oct 2, 2026 · 9:43 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• This will be the first time Derrick Henry has faced the Titans in his career. Henry was drafted by Tennessee and played for them for eight seasons.
• The Baltimore offensive line is in rough shape.
• QB Lamar Jackson was surprisingly absent from practice Wednesday – something to monitor this week.
• WR Zay Flowers was reportedly present at practice Wednesday, although we don’t yet know his level of participation with me writing this game up before a full practice report drops.
• The Titans have their own offensive line injury concerns after two guards departed their Week 3 loss.
• At least the Titans have relative health on their side after emerging from their Week 3 loss without any relevant injuries. The caveat of that statement is that they have yet to release a practice report, as of this writing.

HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Titans have run an uptempo offense that ranks second in situation-neutral pace of play (30.5 seconds/play), leading to the third highest PROE+ value in the league (explanation of that metric below). And yet, they are still averaging the fewest plays per game at just 52.3. Interestingly enough, they are ranked 23rd (not dead last) in EPA/play, influenced heavily by a ninth-ranked rush EPA/play (similarly held back by a 26th-ranked pass EPA/play), which speaks to how this team would like to try to win under normal circumstances and how they have been forced to try to win through three games. Against a disciplined and athletic opponent in the Ravens, the Titans are going to need to execute on every down to keep from falling behind in a hurry.

The Tennessee offensive line has performed admirably considering the offseason changes, having allowed the eighth lowest pressure rate (26.3 percent) while blocking to the 13th best ARBY (explanation below). That has resulted in Titans running backs averaging the 10th best yards per carry at 4.44. Consistently negative game environments have held the Titans to only 21.3 rush attempts per game, the second fewest in the league. Lead back Tony Pollard is in the “tick below workhorse” range through three weeks, currently sitting at a 66.2 percent backfield opportunity share after operating as a true workhorse in Week 3. The interesting thing about that spike is it appears to be highly unsustainable considering Tyjae Spears has played about 50 percent of the offensive snaps in both games in which he did not leave early due to injury. In other words, this backfield should revert to more of a strict timeshare rather than the variant workhorse situation we saw last week. A split backfield for the team averaging the second fewest carries per game is far from appealing. The Ravens present a neutral rushing matchup behind the 13th best defensive ARBY and an 18th-ranked 4.16 yards allowed per carry mark.

No player on the Titans has a target share over the 22.7 percent of rookie Carnell Tate, with Tony Pollard actually leading the team in targets per route run (TPRR; 0.26, Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson tied at 0.23). They are followed by Spears (0.17), tight end Gunnar Helm (0.17), and Elic Ayomanor (0.15), while Calvin Ridley is effectively running wind sprints (0.06). Over 79 percent of Robinson’s snaps have come from the slot, where he’ll see primary coverage from one of the most dynamic defenders in the league in Kyle Hamilton (91 percent slot coverage rate). No thank you. That leaves Tate to see primary coverage from Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins, who have combined to see an average of 12.67 targets per game in primary coverage. Neither is a defensive liability. The big picture here is that the matchup is poor on paper for all Tennessee pass-catchers. Furthering the case for downside is a quarterback in Cam Ward that ranks 32nd in passing EPA/play, behind the likes of C.J. Stroud and Malik Willis.

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Added Sep 30, 2026 · 4:27 PM ET

Updated Oct 2, 2026 · 10:10 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Nico Collins went limited-limited through Thursday’s practice. He appears set to make a return from two missed games due to a hamstring injury.
• Cowboys acquired CB Joey Porter Jr. from the Steelers late Wednesday evening amidst mounting injuries in the secondary.
• Texans run their defense primarily from man and single-high, against which CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens have truly elite metrics.
• Pickens stands out as a clear buy-low candidate in this spot.

HOW DALLAS WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Cowboys rank sixth in PROE+, a metric that combines pass rate over expectation with situation-neutral pace of play to better determine a team’s impact on game environments, per statrankings.com. Defensive injuries and ineffective play in the secondary continue to force the Cowboys to lean into their offense to derive their identity, a unit that currently averaged 29.3 points per game (tied for seventh) on 35 pass attempts per game (ninth) and 23 rush attempts per game (25th). They are a pass-leaning offense with one of the top wide receiver duos in the league in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer has been hit or miss this season with things like play sequencing and situational tendencies while running the fifth most 11-personnel (69.5 percent).

Javonte Williams is operating in a true workhorse role, accounting for 79.7 percent of the team’s available backfield opportunities, resulting in an average of 18.3 opportunities per game. The matchup is about as poor as it can be against the defense allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields behind the seventh best defensive ARBY and eighth best yards allowed per carry (3.61). That makes Williams a tough sell at a slightly inflated salary relative to where he started the season.

The true magic in this offense comes through the air, and they get an interesting matchup against the single-high-heavy, man-heavy Texans. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens have both enjoyed boundless success against man coverage throughout their respective careers. Through three games of 2026, Lamb holds a 32.35 percent first-read target rate, 35.48 percent TPRR, 1.61 YPRR, and 0.55 FP/RR against man coverage, with Pickens at 29.41 percent first-read target rate, 34.29 percent TPRR, 1.51 YPRR, and 0.35 FP/RR against man coverage. Pickens completely separates against single-high alignments, throwing gaudy numbers to the tune of 57.89 percent first-read target rate, 54.55 percent TPRR, 4.23 YPRR, and 0.79 FP/RR, all stats per statrankings.com. Worried about the small sample? No problem, here are Pickens’ metrics in 2025 against single-high: 30.43 first-read target rate, 26.5 percent TPRR, 3.45 YPRR, and 0.7 FP/RR. Nom noms. In fact, only Ryan Flournoy has seen a single target against single-high alignments this season outside of Pickens and Lamb, which is truly remarkable. This pass offense should be highly concentrated on its top two options through the air given the matchup. Tight end Jake Ferguson has seen more muted usage through three games, in a route at a modest 64.4 percent frequency thus far. Less than ideal.

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Added Oct 2, 2026 · 1:22 AM ET

Published Oct 2, 2026 · 12:38 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Miami’s offense has struggled this season and took a big hit in Week 3 when they lost star running back De’Von Achane for the season to a torn ACL.
• Dolphins rookie wide receiver Caleb Douglas has not yet practiced, leaving receivers Malik Washington and Chris Bell along with tight end Greg Dulcich as the team’s top receiving weapons.
• Minnesota’s defense is blitzing on nearly every play at a rate over twice that of any defense the Dolphins have faced yet.
• Vikings star receiver Justin Jefferson left last week’s win over the Bucs in the first half with an ankle injury and is expected to miss this week and possibly beyond.
• Minnesota and their opponents are both averaging under five yards per play this season.

HOW MIAMI WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Dolphins are clearly in a “rebuilding” year as they attempt an organizational reset on both sides of the ball. The one stabilizing and high level factor was supposed to be star running back De’Von Achane, but Achane went down with what turned out to be a torn ACL in their Week 3 loss to the Chiefs. While the Dolphins will “replace” Achane with some combination of Ollie Gordon II and Jaylen Wright, the reality is that his absence fundamentally changes the nature of their offense and many things that he does simply can’t be replaced. The Dolphins ability to run the ball this week will likely be non-existent as statrankings.com ranks the Dolphins as the sixth worst run blocking unit in the league, have a below replacement level backfield, and are facing a Vikings defense that has held all of their opponents backfields below four yards per carry. Malik Willis may add some rushing yards on the ground out of desperation, but Miami’s running backs are highly unlikely to find success on the ground in terms of consistency or explosive plays.

As for the passing game, Achane was also an integral part of that area of the offense and his targets will have to go somewhere. Miami is also likely to be without rookie WR Caleb Douglas. This leaves them with Malik Washington and Chris Bell as their primary receivers. Washington has run half of his snaps from the slot and he, along with TE Greg Dulcich, will likely see an uptick in usage and targets as a result of Achane’s absence. Dulcich was targeted seven times in Week 3 and caught five passes for 55 yards. Washington was targeted 10 times, catching five for 56 yards. Bell is probably the most talented of the group and looked great as he continues to expand his role from last season’s torn ACL. Those three are likely to be the focal points of the Dolphins game plan for Week 4 with Washington and Dulcich, in particular, operating in the areas most likely to be needed as they deal with the chaotic Vikings blitz-rate.

Minnesota is blitzing on 74.7% of pass plays, with no other defense above 50%. The three teams Miami has played so far this season have blitz rates of 22.1%, 28.2%, and 33.3%. Said another way, the Dolphins are about to be blitzed over twice as much as they have been at any point this season. Miami will still run the ball for purposes of running the game clock and gaining small yardage rather than taking on the potential for negative plays, but their best chance of moving the ball will be in the quick passing game with the occasional shot play dialed up against a Vikings secondary that can be susceptible to big plays. That is the one weakness of playing the way they do, is they leave themselves exposed on the back end. Expect Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores to take his chances and make Miami prove they can beat them with explosive passes, with Minnesota’s blitzes being full throttle.

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Added Oct 2, 2026 · 12:38 AM ET

Published Oct 2, 2026 · 11:49 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• This is a showdown between two AFC West rivals who both enter with a 3-0 record, though the underlying metrics point to Kansas City having a much stronger start.
• The Chiefs escaped Miami in Week 3 with a victory despite a somewhat disappointing performance where they let the downtrodden Dolphins hang around.
• Raiders star tight end Brock Bowers returned with a vengeance in Week 3 and appears to be destined for a massive role in new coach Klint Kubiak’s offense.
• Ashton Jeanty continues to lead the Las Vegas backfield and has one of the larger workloads in the NFL, though rookie RB Mike Washington Jr. made a splash play in Week 3 that could lead to increased opportunity.

HOW KANSAS CITY WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Chiefs offense disappointed a bit in Week 3 against the Dolphins relative to the expectations most of us had coming in. Only 24 points and 334 total yards for an offense that had been dominant the first two weeks are not the type of production that you are expecting from a Patrick Mahomes led offense facing one of the worst teams in the league. A deeper dive and watching the game in its entirety, however, shows that the cumulative stats were muted by game flow more than anything. Kansas City averaged 6.8 yards per play, but ran only 49 plays as the Dolphins were able to sustain drives. Miami did not have a single three and out possession in the game, with four of their drives lasting 11 plays or longer. The public perception of the Chiefs Week 3 offensive performance may be that they “disappointed,” but that is simply not true. They were facing a patient offense that was just good enough to gain first downs, but not talented enough to break off big plays against them. Going forward we should view this Chiefs offense exactly as we did prior to last week – a well schemed unit led by Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III, with complementary pieces around them.

This week against the Raiders, the Chiefs offensive line will face a much tougher test than they had the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Colts. Per statrankings.com, Las Vegas ranks 4th in the NFL in pressure rate, but only 31st in blitz rate. These stats complement each other well in these scenarios because what it tells us is the Raiders are getting a lot of pressure, but not having to sacrifice defenders in coverage to accomplish that. The Raiders defense, however, has faced the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints offenses to date. Those three teams have much worse running games than the Chiefs, who rank 2nd in EPA per rush and 6th in rushing success rate. Expect the Chiefs to get Kenneth Walker III going early in this game and a focus on balance and the running game which will create opportunities for their league leading play action passing game. Kansas City leads the NFL in play action rate with 37.3% of their pass plays coming off play action. The Raiders defense has faced the second lowest play action rate this season and will be truly tested in that area for the first time.

Kansas City has led or been second in pass rate over expectation (PROE) every season dating back to 2021 (as far back as Stat Rankings database goes), but they rank 6th in that metric this season as they lean into a more balanced approach and the result has been a much more efficient offense and actually an increase in explosive plays. Kenneth Walker III will be heavily involved in this game and the focal point of what the Chiefs do. Expect Travis Kelce to see an uptick in usage this week as the Chiefs play volume normalizes and he has a matchup with a Raiders defense that gave up FOUR touchdowns to Saints tight ends last week. Xavier Worthy is used in more of a “gadget” role with his speed used to stretch defenses horizontally on motions and sweeps, while Tyquan Thornton is more of a vertical threat. Among the receivers, Rashee Rice is still the most involved and likely to see meaningful targets, but with Walker in the backfield Rice’s role has taken a backseat from what we saw the last couple of years.

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Added Oct 2, 2026 · 11:49 AM ET

Published Oct 2, 2026 · 1:29 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• The Broncos sit at 2-1 despite a relatively uneven start to the season. They have relied heavily on their defense to carry them to both victories, while their offense has largely disappointed.
• Denver’s backfield appears to be a clear split between J.K. Dobbins on early downs and RJ Harvey as the primary pass catcher.
• The 49ers offense has been electric to start the season and is averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per play – over half a yard more than the next closest team.
• San Francisco’s defensive line has been decimated by injuries, which is leading them to create less pressure on the quarterback and be more susceptible against the run.
• 49ers wide receiver Mike Evans is dealing with a rib injury that leaves his status in doubt.

HOW DENVER WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Broncos offense has been exceedingly average thus far. They were downright awful in Week 1 against the Chiefs. They improved a bit in Week 2 against the Jaguars but have left a lot to be desired in each of the last two weeks. Their 2-1 record is primarily being held together by a defense that has risen to the challenge in consecutive weeks along with some fortunate officiating last week in their win over the Rams. Quarterback Bo Nix has struggled with consistency and looked lost at times. The running game is below average. The receivers have actually looked solid the last couple of weeks, but expectations were higher entering the season.

The optimistic way to look at this week for the Broncos is they are facing a defense that has been decimated on the defensive line and is not generating any meaningful pressure. Denver has faced three elite defenses in the Chiefs, Jaguars, and Rams to start the season. The 49ers just gave up 30 points to the Cardinals and let them dink and dunk their way down the field all game. This should play well for the Broncos as Nix is far better when he is not being pressured and the 49ers were last in the NFL in pressure rate in Week 3 at 14.3%. The Broncos passing game is likely to work primarily through WR Jaylen Waddle, who has had a roller coaster season thus far that may continue in Week 4. Waddle has a versatile skill set and lit up the Jaguars in Week 2. He struggled with the Rams secondary in Week 3 and the entire Broncos offense flopped against the Chiefs in Week 1. We just saw Michael Wilson rack up catches in the short areas of the field and I believe Waddle and Pat Bryant are going to see a lot of those looks this week. Denver is also not shy about throwing the ball to their backs and tight ends when coverage dictates it. The 49ers force everything underneath schematically and the Broncos will take those cheap early down yards whenever they can.

The combination of those short area passes and a solid running game against a depleted 49ers front will leave Denver in a lot of favorable down and distance situations. This is critical for the Broncos as Nix and the offensive scheme are most dynamic when they have the full playbook at their disposal. This reminds me of a Broncos game last season when they hosted the Cowboys explosive offense and had a similar situation where they were likely to move the ball well on early downs, and that would set them up for explosives. The Cowboys 2025 secondary is a lot worse than this 49ers unit and they also didn’t have Fred Warner, so I don’t expect Denver to put up 44 points in this spot like they did last year. I do, however, expect them to know they can’t rely on their defense to the same degree this week as they have been. To win in San Francisco against the league’s best (to date) offense, the Denver offense will need to play a more complete game.

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Added Oct 2, 2026 · 1:29 AM ET

Published Oct 1, 2026 · 6:07 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Through three weeks, no offense in the NFL has been more disappointing relative to expectations than the Chargers – who now travel to arguably the toughest environment for opposing offenses in the league.
• Sam Darnold returned and put up huge numbers against the Commanders leaky secondary in Week 3, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba continuing to dominate the team’s passing game usage and take the league by storm.
• The Seattle backfield appears to have devolved into a full-blown three-way committee as rookie Jadarian Price fumbled in Week 3 and saw his snaps cut back significantly.
• Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey popped up on the injury report with a foot issue on Wednesday and then missed practice Thursday.
• The Seahawks have been passing at an elevated rate this season relative to their 2025 tendencies.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Chargers have been middle of the pack through three weeks in terms of yards per play on both offense and defense. They have been decent at moving the ball and gaining some traction on drives, while also not getting dominated by opposing offenses by any means. Despite that, they are sitting at 0-3 and have not scored more than 16 points in a game this season as their play calling, third down execution, red zone efficiency, and ability to take care of the ball have all been very poor. The Bills tried to give them a win in Week 3, as Buffalo turned the ball over five times, but even then the Chargers continue to find a way to keep themselves from winning. They are lacking explosive plays and don’t seem to have any offensive player that stresses a defense or puts them on their heels. Offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel had a lot of success running the Dolphins offense, but in that scenario he had multiple players that terrified opposing defenses. Systemically, the Chargers seem to have a very big problem on their hands as their scheme does not appear to fit the players they have.

Digging into the numbers, the Chargers have been as bad as it has looked. They rank 30th in the NFL in EPA per play and 23rd in success rate. Their early down struggles have led to a very low third down conversion rate. As discussed, there is no one on the Chargers who is a physical specimen and no one whose speed is so elite that defenses have to worry about them at all times. In theory, Ladd McConkey would be their primary offensive weapon but his season has been saddled by injuries and his status for Week 4 is in question. Seattle’s defense ranks 30th in the league in blitz rate and 14th in QB pressure rate. This shows us that the Seahawks are able to generate problems for opponents without needing to bring extra pass rushers. This formula was a key to the Seahawks dominant 2025 season, when they ranked 26th in blitz rate and 3rd in QB pressure rate. This is a major problem for a Chargers team that has been struggling to handle pressure. Their interior offensive line has been hammered this year and is likely to have their hands full again in this game.

The Chargers seem likely to approach this game with a conservative approach out of necessity. Last week the Bills made several early mistakes that gave the Chargers short fields and allowed them to play with a lead. Los Angeles has to realize their best chance of a road upset here is finding a way to create a similar game script but not giving the game back as they did in Week 3. The Chargers run blocking has actually been average this season, but the Seahawks defense is 5th in stuff rate and is allowing only 3.3 yards per carry this season after leading the league at 3.8 yards per carry allowed in 2025. The Chargers are likely to focus things on their backfield and Ladd McConkey, if he plays, in the short to intermediate areas of the field. Death by a thousand paper cuts will be their approach as testing this Seahawks secondary downfield with Quentin Johnston and/or Tre Harris seems like a desperation move only. They might uncork a couple prayers in the first half to try to loosen things up, but short gains to get manageable third downs will be the focus. Look for Omarion Hampton and Keaton Mitchell to be very involved, with tight end Oronde Gadsden II’s involvement likely becoming a necessity.

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Added Oct 1, 2026 · 6:07 PM ET

Check back Thursday for the full game-by-game breakdown in the NFL Edge!

Check back Thursday for the full game-by-game breakdown in the NFL Edge!