Sunday, Feb 12th — Late
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Eagles @ Texans

DFS Showdown Strategy

By: Xandamere


Outlook 

The way this game is likeliest to play out is for the Eagles to trash the Texans, as they’ve done to most of their opponents this year. We know, however, that most of the field is going to build that way based on the Vegas line, so let’s consider a few options for how we can build smartly around this game.

Potential Scenarios
  • Play for the Eagles to win but make sure you have 1-2 low-owned pieces in there to make sure you’re being different from the field.
  • Play the Eagles to win handily but fade Hurts – a bet that most of the scoring comes from the running backs and some pass catchers but without enough aerial production for Hurts (at his high price) to be optimal.
  • Play the Texans to keep the game competitive – even 3-3 Houston builds will be uncommon, while 4-2 builds will be exceedingly rare. The Texans don’t even have to win the game for this to work, you’re just betting that their scoring is more evenly distributed while the Eagles scoring is narrowly concentrated. 
Cash Games

In cash games, my player pool consists of the quarterbacks, Sanders, Pierce, Goedert, the kickers, and then if I really need to dip down into deep value territory, I think I’d go with Howard at $1,600 as my favorite cheap value option. Of the “big” plays, I’m most comfortable fading Mills. While I generally want quarterbacks in cash, the matchup here is a nightmare and I’m not sure that Mills’ floor is as high as either Sanders or Pierce. 

Tournaments

In tournaments, my favorite captains are Sanders, Goedert, Pierce, Smith, and AJB in that order. 


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