Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the fifth slate.
Week 7 has four games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
The Cowboys are “that team” for 2025 and have been a participant in my favorite game environments for a month. They combine an excellent, pass-first offense with an atrocious defense. Think of last year’s Bengals. The hardest part about stacking this game is that everyone carries a high cost, and there are too many good options, making it easy to choose wrongly. CeeDee Lamb is set to return, which should be good for overall scoring, but also makes the Cowboys offense less condensed. George Pickens was nothing but great in Lamb’s absence, but he was essentially a non-factor before Lamb went down. What happens now? It’s difficult to know, and with both Cowboys receivers priced at the top of the slate, you must get that choice correct. I’m going to favor using Lamb, but I don’t have a high confidence interval in that decision. Jake Ferguson is priced based on his production without Lamb. I’m going to use him in stacks and leave him alone otherwise. Deebo Samuel has been awesome, mostly without Terry McLaurin on the field, and F1 has been ruled out for this game. I’m going to use Deebo in game stacks and as a one-off. Bill Croskey-Merritt is the best player from this game. He’s affordable, has a great matchup, and can be used on his own or in game stacks. This game is going to be a circus, but it’s not as easy to stack as it first appears. I’ll likely use Daniels + Deebo + Bill + Lamb.
2022/23 Season: +55U, +4% ROI
2023/24 Season: +82U, +10% ROI
2024/25 Season: +15U, +2% ROI
2024/25 NBA Playoffs: +12U, 16%
The Saints are another team that consistently creates strong game environments. They run a ton of plays, aren’t afraid to be aggressive, and have a bad defense. The only thing that separates them from the Cowboys is that their offense isn’t as good, so they’re less likely to push other teams into aggression. The Bears are the type of team that will try and score regardless of whether they’re winning, which makes them a good fit against the Saints to create a high scoring game. The Saints are all remarkably cheap for their usage (because of poor efficiency), and with DJ Moore going to the hospital after last week’s game, his condition is up in the air. If Moore sits, both Odunze and Burden become strong plays. If Moore plays, Odunze is the guy you want as a bring back with Saints stacks. I haven’t decided what side I want to stack this game from yet, but if I go Bears, it’ll be Caleb Williams + D’Andre Swift + Odunze + Olave. From the Saints side, it’ll be Rattler + Olave + Rashid Shaheed + Odunze.
