One Week Stats 1.25
Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder of Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals and GPP wins
Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS, a new weekly series highlighting the top three games of the week by Over/Under. Each matchup will be delivered in a stat-driven, bullet-point format, powered by StatRankings.com
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
- Tampa Bay targeted its running backs at the 4th-highest rate in the league, and while TB has a new offensive coordinator (Josh Grizzard), the offense should operate the same this season. “Grizz knows this system like the back of his hand,” said tackle Tristan Wirfs. “I mean, it’s going to be similar to what we’ve run”, said Mike Evans.
- Atlanta allowed 6.8 RB targets per game (3rd most). New Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, formerly the Jets DC from 2021–2024, led defenses that ranked in the top-8 in RB targets allowed in three of those four seasons. Bucky Irving averaged 6.2 receiving fantasy points per game over his final 10 games of 2024, up from 3.67 per game across the first eight. With Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan out, Irving (and Rachaad White) should be active again in the passing attack (Irving caught 9-of-9 targets against ATL).
- Irving (0.94 fantasy points per opportunity, 6th) should also find success on the ground against Atlanta (9th in missed tackles). He ranked 3rd in forced missed tackle rate among RBs with 200+ touches. While the Falcons invested two first-round picks in defensive linemen, both are smaller EDGE rushers unlikely to make a major impact against the run.
- Cade Otton practiced in full on Thursday and should see an increased target rate with Godwin and McMillan out. In his last four games against Atlanta, Otton has averaged 4.8 receptions, 46 receiving yards, and 13.8 fantasy points per game, a 77% increase compared to his per-game average against all other opponents.
- Bijan Robinson finished the season averaging 0.94 fantasy points per rush attempt (last five games). That came on 27.5 carries (2nd among qualified RBs), producing 24 DK points per game. With concern over offensive line injuries, Bijan is projected to be under 10% owned, which is not something you see often for a back who averaged 24 DK points per game (last 5). In addition, Tampa may be without its Pro Bowl Defensive Tackle, Vita Vea.
- Drake London exploded in his last three games after Michael Penix took over as the starting QB for Kirk Cousins. Over those three games, London was 2nd in first-read target share (33%), 2nd in True Target Share (39.8%), and averaged 7+ catches and 100+ yards for 25 DK points p/g.
