Thursday, Dec 11th
Monday, Dec 15th

JM’s Thanksgiving Journal 13.25

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate.

WEDNESDAY, NOV. 25 ::

BIG-PICTURE SLATE OVERVIEW ::

Well well well. What a Thanksgiving slate, right?

I’m sure that will be the consensus.

That’s certainly what I thought when I first opened it this afternoon.

But what if?

What if the Packers (23 points against Minnesota // 27 vs the Giants // 7 vs Philly // 13 vs Carolina // an outlier 35 vs Pittsburgh // 27 vs Arizona // 27 vs Cincy — look at the teams they only managed 27 against, and tell me how much confidence that inspires) actually only score 23 to 24 points, in line with their implied team total, with an offense that spreads the ball around? And what if the Lions — implied for 25.75 — land at or below their team total, with high-priced pieces that squeeze your roster on a slate without a ton of obvious value? In the Lions’ five games under 34 points, they’ve produced one elite score: Jahmyr Gibbs vs the Bucs.

What if a still-very-strong Kansas City defense does enough to chop the legs out from under the Cowboys’ offense so that none of their high-priced pieces are producing, and what if the Cowboys’ improved defense is strong enough to prevent elite scores from a spread-the-wealth Kansas City offense?

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