Dummy Grid 7.25
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Beta
:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K
Dillon Gabriel
Quinshon Judkins
Rhamondre Stevenson
CeeDee Lamb
Rashee Rice
Rasheed Shaheed
Harold Fannin
Mason Taylor
Patriots
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)
<< Join Here >>
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Blue Chips
Quinshon Judkins
Buy, buy, buy!!!
I’ve explored this in-depth in podcasts and in my Journal this week, but a couple things I want to make clear:
- Judkins will be a lock-button play for me this week
- Judkins is a different “lock-button” play than some I’ve had in the past
We’ll start with that second point.
Some “lock-button” plays that came to mind for me when thinking about this were Justin Fields at $5.5k the first time he went off for a huge game (45.7 DK points) in 2022, and Josh Allen in Week 12 of 2023 when he went for 43.7 against the Eagles. On the Fields week, Joe Mixon also put up 50+, and on the Allen week, Jalen Hurts also popped for a big game, so neither guy ultimately “won you the week on their own”; but each guy essentially put up a score you had to have in order to compete that week, and it was the relatively high probability of that type of score that pushed me to lean so heavily on those guys in those weeks. That’s not how I see Judkins this week! I think it will be completely possible to win this week without him. The reason I like him is not “because I think he’s going to put the slate out of reach.” Instead, I like him because most scenarios in this spot have him easily clearing 16+, with very clear pathways to a score of 22-28; and unlike the last three weeks (when you could pick and choose among several running backs and get a great combination of scores), the running back position actually looks pretty thin this week. Because of this, I plan to simplify my process by just playing Judkins on every roster.
As to that first point (why I feel confident here), there are several factors at play.
- For the first time since Baker Mayfield was run out of town, this looks like the Kevin Stefanski offense. In the same way that Mac Jones, for example (or Nick Mullens, or C.J. Beathard, etc.), has been able to step in and run the Shanahan offense, Gabriel has been able to step in and run the Stefanski offense. He might not be a standout talent, but he’s a good fit for a good, well-schemed offense.
- The Dolphins are an “asterisk defense.” When I look through game logs, I’m constantly seeing big scores from individual players and then saying, “Okay, but I should keep in mind that this came against the Dolphins.”
- Quinshon Judkins is central to this offense, and is also really good.
On the year, the Dolphins have allowed the following RB1 scores:
- 26.7 — Jonathan Taylor
- 21.2 — Rhamondre Stevenson (only one other game over 6.6)
- 23.8 — James Cook
- 16.1 — Breece Hall
- 35.4 — Rico Dowdle
- 25.8 — Kimani Vidal
If the weather cooperates in this one, all the better. But even with the Over/Under dropping due to weather concerns, Judkins’ rushing prop in this game is 95.5(!!!). That’s an absolutely absurd number. To put that number in perspective ::
- OPOY candidate Jonathan Taylor’s prop is at 88.5
- Last year’s OPOY Saquon Barkley’s prop is at 73.5
- Potentially-popular Breece Hall’s prop is 67.5
A 95.5 rushing prop is silly. We’re hoping Judkins can grab the 100-yard bonus and score a touchdown here, and Vegas is saying Judkins is just about a 50/50 bet to get the 100-yard bonus.
I’m confident pushing chips in on this play this week.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
“Double-Dip Brownies”
Quinshon Judkins + (insert additional Browns piece you like)
Story:
“The Dolphins are bad on defense”
Why It Works:
We probably need the weather to not be atrocious in order for this one to work; but if we get cooperation from the elements, there’s a pretty good chance that this competent, well-schemed offense is able to function at a respectable level against the Miami defense. If that’s the case, we end up with not only Quinshon Judkins looking good, but with one of the cheap Cleveland pass catchers looking good as well. Here’s what I said in one of my first Journal entries of the week this week ::
One of the easiest ways to unlock salary and differentiate from the field this week may be to play two Browns together. Not that this is a week where we’re “definitely going to see tourney-winning rosters featuring the highest-priced players on the slate,” but if you need to free up salary, Browns are going to be an obvious option this week. They are playing at home against a horrible Dolphins defense, and they are underpriced against that backdrop. Furthermore, the probable sentiment around the Browns’ offense is different from the reality of the Browns offense, which may give us a slight ownership discount in spite of the fact that Browns are popping in early-week optimizers (though realistically, Judkins and Fannin — assuming Njoku is out — could find their way to the top of the ownership pile this week in spite of sentiment around this offense likely being off; we’ll see).
What this offense is, with Dillon Gabriel:
Run-based.
Short-area focused.
But it’s also competent, and with Stefanski at the helm, it remains very well-schemed. Outside of Jeudy being not good at catching footballs, this offense isn’t shooting itself in the foot. And with the Dolphins unlikely to be able to consistently shut them down, this should lead to some sustained drives in this one. It will be a bit of an upset if this offense doesn’t reach at least 20 real-life points (and 27 wouldn’t surprise me), and these pieces are cheap enough that this probably yields value.
Judkins and Fannin are the obvious plays, but I do wonder if the deeply negative sentiment around Jeudy will leave him with very little ownership. I don’t like the play(er), but there comes a point where the convergence of matchup, role, ownership, and leverage makes a player like Jeudy attractive. We could reach that point this week.
And of course, playing two of these guys together is a way to offset some of the ownership we’re sure to see here. Yes, these players will be high-owned individually. But how many rosters will have the two popular guys together, or one of the popular guys paired with Jeudy?
How It Works:
My preference here is the Judkins + Fannin angle, but Judkins + Jeudy also has plenty of juice; and while I would prefer to include Gabriel on a Fannin + Jeudy build, there are pathways to this pairing working out nicely without Gabriel being the best way to play it.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“Leverage King”
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
Nix + Denver D
Not that you’re necessarily tailing me on Bo Nix builds this week…but if you are, I like the idea of forcing some Denver D on some of my Bo Nix builds. Generally speaking, I have rules in my opto sets (or I at least shop for rosters in my opto sets that follow this rule) of “Don’t play my quarterback with their own DST,” as my quarterback plays are typically a bet on the game environment taking off. But my attraction to the Broncos this week is effectively attraction to the idea of the Broncos smashing in this spot in a blowout win, and keeping their foot on the gas pedal throughout (something we’ve seen Sean Payton do with this team in the past). Nix rosters won’t be overwhelmingly popular to begin with, but “Nix + Denver D” will be especially low-owned, and there is a pathway to this being a really sharp way to build.
This rule says, “On 30% of Bo Nix rosters, include the Denver D” (on 30% of rosters with the locked player, include a minimum of two ‘players’ from this pool).
$6.19/Week:
Just a reminder :: the Bink Machine is an outrageously useful tool for single-entry/3-Max. We intentionally keep the price tag on the Bink Machine cheap (as far as I know, it’s cheaper than any other optimizer out there) in order for our SE/3-Max users to feel like they can justify the cost. If you typically play playoff DFS, you’re basically paying $6.19 per Main Slate with a $99 Bink Machine pass. If you use it for a week and don’t find it to be useful, reach out to support and we’ll refund your money. Get in there to try it out if you can.
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Jayden Daniels || Dak Prescott || >>—<< || Patrick Mahomes || Drake Maye || Bo Nix || Dillon Gabriel >>—<< || It’s a wide-open week at quarterback, especially if Jayden // Dak somehow disappoint, with viable cases to be made for many others, including Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Justin Fields, and others
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
