Dummy Grid 10.25
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Beta
:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K
Lamar Jackson
D’Andre Swift
Rico Dowdle
Jalen Coker
Jaylen Waddle
Jameson Williams
Mark Andrews
Cade Otton
Browns
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)
<< Join Here >>
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Blue Chips
No true Blue Chips for me this week.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
“$10.2k”
Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews
Story:
“What happens 70% of the time happens here”
Why It Works:
Imagine a $10.2k player (JT, or “where CMC will probably be soon”) with the following game logs over a 17-game sample:
46.9
38.5
56.4
38.8
28.0
51.7
20.1
38.2
44.3
47.5
35.3
44.2
38.4
30.9
27.7
42.2
54.1
That is, of course, absolutely outrageous production, with 27.7+ in 16/17 (can your CMC or JT do that?), and with 38+ in 12/17 (70%).
This is what Lamar and Andrews have done across their last 17 games together; and while the obvious point of push-back is that you can’t compare QB // pass-catcher stacks to position players (as quarterbacks have a higher point-per-dollar average than other positions), the actual truth is, this is a much closer comparison than it seems. If you take “A quarterback plus one specific pass catcher” and build out a list of their combined game logs, these game logs would almost always look very similar to what you would expect from an individual running back or wideout at that price (or, in the case of a higher-priced QB/pass-catcher block: to what our eyes would be trained to expect from an individual running back or pass catcher at that theoretical price). A quarterback often hits without his top weapon, or a top weapon hits without the quarterback; or even when these guys hit together, in most instances, you still aren’t getting 4x. The absolute ceiling on QB/pass-catcher pairings is almost always higher, but the actual game-to-game production tends to look a lot like what you would expect from an individual player carrying that same price tag.
So…again :: 70% of the time, this $10.2k “player” has gone for 38+ points, with 44+ scored 41.2% of the time. Lamar + Andrews has been a cheat code for over a year now, and people continue to overlook it.
How It Works:
The cool thing about this block is that people latch onto the price tag on Lamar. “I’ll play Dart instead of Lamar” (Dart + Slayton costs $10.0k, and has gone for 38.4 once, while going for 27.2 or fewer three other times; Dart + Wan’Dale costs $11k, and in games where Wan’Dale has been sharing the field with Slayton, this block has gone for 40.8 once, and for under 27 three other times). I intended to lay out several other examples of “I’ll play this cheap QB instead of Lamar”…but none of those other options (outside of the “$10.6k” block below) are even close to what Dart and his stacking partners provide. Point being: yes, Lamar is expensive; but the clearest way to stack Lamar is with Andrews, and that’s not expensive. In fact, at $10.2k, it’s pretty darn cheap.
This won’t send you down the path to a tourney win on its own; but if “what happens 70% of the time happens here,” you’ll have a nice edge on the field before getting to the rest of your roster.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“$10.6k”
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
If McBride
I’m going to be alone on this one, I’m sure; but if a $6k tight end is posting the kind of score you’re hoping for, and his quarterback is $4.6k…well, there’s a pretty good chance this quarterback is also posting a score you’d like to have. Rather than playing McBride solo as a $6k player, I (strongly) prefer to play McBride + Brissett as a combo $10.6k player (see Block above).
This rule says, “On 100% of rosters that play McBride, also play Brissett” (‘on 100% of rosters with the locked player, include both players in this pool’).
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Lamar Jackson || Drake Maye || Jared Goff || Jaxson Dart || Jacoby Brissett
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
